{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,14]],"date-time":"2026-09-14T02:04:02Z","timestamp":1789351442079,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":31,"publisher":"Wiley","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,13]],"date-time":"2026-09-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1789257600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,13]],"date-time":"2026-09-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1789257600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Orthod Craniofacial Res"],"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Predicting facial soft\u2010tissue growth is essential for treatment planning and long\u2010term outcome forecasting in orthodontics, orthognathic surgery and facial aesthetic surgery. This study evaluated whether longitudinal childhood cephalograms can predict adult facial soft\u2010tissue dimensions using Bayesian growth models.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Serial lateral cephalograms from four studies in the AAOF Craniofacial Growth Legacy Collection (Bolton\u2010Brush, Denver, Iowa, Oregon) were analysed. The sample comprised 96 subjects (39 females, 57 males), over an age range of 6\u201329\u2009years. Eight soft\u2010tissue linear measurements were analysed: upper and lower facial heights, upper and lower lip lengths, upper and lower lip thicknesses and soft\u2010tissue chin thickness at pogonion and menton. Population\u2010level and individual\u2010level Bayesian models were fitted for each variable. Predictive accuracy was assessed using five\u2010fold cross\u2010validation, with a childhood cutoff age of 14\u2009years and prediction of withheld adult observations at age &gt;\u200920\u2009years. Predictive accuracy was quantified using the mean absolute error, bias and 95% prediction interval coverage.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Mean absolute error ranged from 0.73\u2009mm (lower lip thickness) to 2.85\u2009mm (lower facial height), with 95% prediction interval coverage of 94.1%\u201399.0%. Bias was close to zero for all variables. Residual standard deviation reduction from the individual\u2010level model ranged from 3% (upper lip length) to 42% (lower lip length). Prediction accuracy was generally higher in females than males.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Longitudinal childhood cephalometric records contain predictive information regarding adult facial soft\u2010tissue dimensions beyond population\u2010based growth standards. Prediction accuracy and inter\u2010individual variation both differed by soft\u2010tissue variable and sex.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/ocr.70186","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,14]],"date-time":"2026-09-14T01:56:36Z","timestamp":1789350996000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Can Childhood Longitudinal Cephalograms Predict Adult Facial Soft\u2010Tissue Dimensions? A Bayesian Modelling Study"],"prefix":"10.1111","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0717-3903","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sushant","family":"Pandey","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopaedics B.P. Koirala Institute of Health Sciences  Dharan Nepal"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6824-607X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jamal","family":"Giri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopaedics B.P. Koirala Institute of Health Sciences  Dharan Nepal"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0493-5770","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Samikshya","family":"Sangroula","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopaedics B.P. Koirala Institute of Health Sciences  Dharan Nepal"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8485-7954","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Avinash","family":"Chaudhary","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopaedics B.P. Koirala Institute of Health Sciences  Dharan Nepal"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3123-6545","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Prabhat Ranjan","family":"Pokharel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopaedics B.P. Koirala Institute of Health Sciences  Dharan Nepal"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0561-6018","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rajesh","family":"Gyawali","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopaedics B.P. Koirala Institute of Health Sciences  Dharan Nepal"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,13]]},"reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"e_1_2_13_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"49","DOI":"10.1111\/ocr.1999.2.2.49","article-title":"The Emerging Soft Tissue Paradigm in Orthodontic Diagnosis and Treatment Planning","volume":"2","author":"Ackerman J. 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W.","year":"2014","journal-title":"Anatomical Record (Hoboken)"},{"issue":"2","key":"e_1_2_13_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"217","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajodo.2015.06.002","article-title":"American Association of Orthodontists Foundation Craniofacial Growth Legacy Collection: Overview of a Powerful Tool for Orthodontic Research and Teaching","volume":"148","author":"Baumrind S.","year":"2015","journal-title":"American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics"},{"issue":"5","key":"e_1_2_13_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"991","DOI":"10.1002\/ar.24520","article-title":"Bayesian Approach to Longitudinal Craniofacial Growth: The Craniofacial Growth Consortium Study","volume":"304","author":"Sherwood R. 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