{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,25]],"date-time":"2026-09-25T02:49:21Z","timestamp":1790304561354,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":67,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,7]],"date-time":"2023-12-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1701907200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Ophthalmic Physiologic Optic"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Purpose<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This retrospective analysis of electronic medical record (EMR) data investigated the natural history of myopic progression in children from optometric practices in Ireland.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The analysis was of myopic patients aged 7\u201317 with multiple visits and not prescribed myopia control treatment. Sex\u2010 and age\u2010specific population centiles for annual myopic progression were derived by fitting a weighted cubic spline to empirical quantiles. These were compared to progression rates derived from control group data obtained from 17 randomised clinical trials (RCTs) for myopia. Linear mixed models (LMMs) were used to allow comparison of myopia progression rates against outputs from a predictive online calculator. Survival analysis was performed to determine the intervals at which a significant level of myopic progression was predicted to occur.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Myopia progression was highest in children aged 7 years (median: \u22120.67\u2009D\/year) and progressively slowed with increasing age (median: \u22120.18\u2009D\/year at age 17). Female sex (\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009&lt;\u20090.001), a more myopic SER at baseline (\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009&lt;\u20090.001) and younger age (\n                      <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                      \u2009&lt;\u20090.001) were all found to be predictive of faster myopic progression. Every RCT exhibited a mean progression higher than the median centile observed in the EMR data, while clinic\u2010based studies more closely matched the median progression rates. The LMM predicted faster myopia progression for patients with higher baseline myopia levels, in keeping with previous studies, which was in contrast to an online calculator that predicted slower myopia progression for patients with higher baseline myopia. Survival analysis indicated that at a recall period of 12\u2009months, myopia will have progressed in between 10% and 70% of children, depending upon age.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This study produced progression centiles of untreated myopic children, helping to define the natural history of untreated myopia. This will enable clinicians to better predict both refractive outcomes without treatment and monitor treatment efficacy, particularly in the absence of axial length data.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/opo.13259","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,8]],"date-time":"2023-12-08T02:33:42Z","timestamp":1702002822000},"page":"258-269","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":22,"title":["Myopia progression patterns among paediatric patients in a clinical setting"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"44","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3919-444X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Michael","family":"Moore","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Eye Research Ireland, School of Physics, Clinical and Optometric Sciences Technological University Dublin  Dublin Ireland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8957-0733","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gareth","family":"Lingham","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Eye Research Ireland, School of Physics, Clinical and Optometric Sciences Technological University Dublin  Dublin Ireland"},{"name":"Centre for Ophthalmology and Visual Science University of Western Australia  Perth Western Australia Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7004-6026","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Daniel I.","family":"Flitcroft","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Eye Research Ireland, School of Physics, Clinical and Optometric Sciences Technological University Dublin  Dublin Ireland"},{"name":"Children's University Hospital  Dublin Ireland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3130-8991","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"James","family":"Loughman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Eye Research Ireland, School of Physics, Clinical and Optometric Sciences Technological University Dublin  Dublin Ireland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_13_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/eye.2013.280"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/eye.2013.256"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ophtha.2016.01.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/OPX.0000000000000516"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1475-1313.2011.00884.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.survophthal.2017.03.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/archophthalmol.2009.303"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bjophthalmol-2013-304228"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ophtha.2020.07.017"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/eye.2013.255"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/OPX.0000000000001367"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bjophthalmol-2017-311266"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1167\/iovs.64.6.7"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2022.24162"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0146332"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ophtha.2012.12.018"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1167\/iovs.06-0562"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ophtha.2018.06.029"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0250468"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bjophthalmol-2019-315024"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/aos.14246"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471\u20102415\u201011\u201032"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/09286586.2018.1532524"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtos.2019.02.007"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ophtha.2015.07.002"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1002674"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1167\/iovs.18-25957"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/archopht.122.12.1760"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1167\/iovs.08-2067","article-title":"A randomized trial of the effect of soft contact lenses on myopia progression in children","volume":"49","author":"Walline JJ","year":"2008","journal-title":"Invest Opthalmol Vis Sci"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jaapos.2007.10.014"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00006324-200008000-00006"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/OPX.0000000000001410"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/OPX.0000000000000808"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1444-0938.2006.00055.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/OPX.0000000000000036"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ophtha.2010.10.035"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2020.10834"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1167\/iovs.11-7769"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1167\/iovs.02-0816"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bjo.73.7.547"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00417-018-3906-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/cxo.13077"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/aos.15761"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamaophthalmol.2023.2097"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bjophthalmol-2020-316234"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_47_1","first-page":"1104","article-title":"Progression of myopia in children and teenagers: a nationwide longitudinal study","volume":"106","author":"Tricard D","year":"2021","journal-title":"Br J Ophthalmol"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.optom.2022.09.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/OPX.0b013e3182357f79"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/aos.14545"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1167\/iovs.13-12403"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bjophthalmol-2015-307724"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10654-015-0010-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_54_1","first-page":"2794","article-title":"Myopia and myopic progression among schoolchildren: a three\u2010year follow\u2010up study","volume":"34","author":"P\u00e4rssinen O","year":"1993","journal-title":"Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/jop.2011.0027"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_56_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajo.2015.01.029"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_57_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0241759"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00006324-200010000-00009"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_59_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bjophthalmol-2018-313739"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_60_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1167\/iovs.06-1118"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_61_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/opo.12895"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_62_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1167\/iovs.64.6.2"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_63_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/OPX.0000000000001883"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_64_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/aos.13603"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_65_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00417-019-04290-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_66_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0167642"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_67_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/opo.12676"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_68_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bjophthalmol-2018-312573"}],"container-title":["Ophthalmic and Physiological Optics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/opo.13259","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,7]],"date-time":"2026-01-07T11:24:08Z","timestamp":1767785048000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/opo.13259"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,7]]},"references-count":67,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,3]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/opo.13259"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/opo.13259","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0275-5408","1475-1313"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0275-5408","type":"print"},{"value":"1475-1313","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,7]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2023-09-11","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2023-11-21","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2023-12-07","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}