{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,18]],"date-time":"2026-08-18T01:18:32Z","timestamp":1787015912700,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,5,28]],"date-time":"2017-05-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1495929600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"name":"Mega-Project of National Science and Technology for the 12th 5-Year Plan of China","award":["2014ZX10003002-002-005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2014ZX10003002-002-005"]}]},{"name":"Mega-Project of National Science and Technology for the 12th 5-Year Plan of China","award":["2014ZX10004008"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2014ZX10004008"]}]},{"name":"Mega-Project of National Science and Technology for the 12th 5-Year Plan of China","award":["2013ZX10004904"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2013ZX10004904"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Respirology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,10]]},"abstract":"\n ABSTRACT<\/jats:styled-content>\n <\/jats:title>\n \n Background and objective<\/jats:title>\n \n Tuberculosis (\n TB<\/jats:styled-content>\n ) remains a major public health challenge. China accounts for more than 10% of the global\n TB<\/jats:styled-content>\n burden, and effective modelling of\n TB<\/jats:styled-content>\n trends remains limited.\n <\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Methods<\/jats:title>\n \n We used data drawn primarily from two Chinese nation\u2010wide cross\u2010sectional epidemiological surveys combined with data from China's National Disease Reporting Network to construct an eight\u2010state Markov model that simulates\n TB<\/jats:styled-content>\n prevalence. By adjusting the relevant parameters, we evaluated which characteristics have the greatest bearing upon prevalence and efficacy of the response measures.\n <\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Results<\/jats:title>\n \n If current trends continue, the prevalence of\n TB<\/jats:styled-content>\n in China will enter an 8\u2010year period of decline from approximately 390 to 200 cases per 100\u2009000 population and stabilize at 163 cases per 100\u2009000 population, which is a figure well above the World Health Organization (\n WHO<\/jats:styled-content>\n ) goal of eliminating\n TB<\/jats:styled-content>\n by 2050. We find that the proportion of notified cases in the population, the rate of progression from latent to active and the overall treatment success rate are the chief factors affecting disease progression.\n <\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n \n We suggest a 90\u201090\u201090 strategy, wherein the proportion of notified cases in the population reaches 90%, the risk of progression from latent to active is decreased by 90% compared with the current level and the overall treatment success rate is increased to 90%. This strategy could reduce\n TB<\/jats:styled-content>\n prevalence to less than 10 cases per 100\u2009000 population within 5\u2009years and to 1.77 cases per 100\u2009000 population within 50\u2009years.\n <\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/resp.13078","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,5,28]],"date-time":"2017-05-28T20:12:39Z","timestamp":1496002359000},"page":"1423-1429","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":15,"title":["Tuberculosis in\n C<\/scp>\n hina:\n A<\/scp>\n longitudinal predictive model of the general population and recommendations for achieving\n WHO<\/scp>\n goals"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"22","author":[{"given":"Kaijin","family":"Xu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine Zhejiang University Hangzhou China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cheng","family":"Ding","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine Zhejiang University Hangzhou China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Connor J.","family":"Mangan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Neurobiology Harvard University Cambridge Massachusetts USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yiping","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Zhejiang Institute of Medical Care Information Technology Hangzhou China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jingjing","family":"Ren","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of General Practice, the First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine Zhejiang University Hangzhou China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shigui","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine Zhejiang University Hangzhou China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bing","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine Zhejiang University Hangzhou China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bing","family":"Ruan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine Zhejiang University Hangzhou China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jifang","family":"Sheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine Zhejiang University Hangzhou China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6945-0593","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lanjuan","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine Zhejiang University Hangzhou China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,5,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","unstructured":"WHO. 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