{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]],"date-time":"2026-09-28T17:43:46Z","timestamp":1790617426968,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,9,19]],"date-time":"2018-09-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1537315200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Respirology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background and objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>Chronic respiratory failure (CRF) with hypoxaemia is an important pathophysiology in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and existing mild hypoxaemia may be a sign of future CRF development. However, little is known about the trajectory of partial arterial pressure of oxygen (PaO<jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>) decline in patients with COPD. We assessed decline in PaO<jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub> and the impact of short\u2010term reductions in PaO<jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub> to predict future decline in PaO<jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>A total of 172 outpatients with COPD from a prospective cohort study were enrolled. Pulmonary function tests and arterial blood gas (ABG) analyses were conducted at baseline and 1\u2009year after enrolment and changes in PaO<jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub> (\u0394PaO<jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>) and other parameters were calculated. Survival and incidence of CRF (as assessed by prescription of long\u2010term home oxygen therapy) were monitored for 6\u2009years.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>A total of 164 patients completed the observation period and 101 patients had mild hypoxaemia (PaO<jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\u2009&lt;\u200980\u2009Torr) at baseline. No patients with normal PaO<jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub> (\u226580\u2009Torr) developed CRF, and 10 patients with mild hypoxaemia developed CRF in 6\u2009years. Baseline airflow limitation and diffusion capacity were significantly associated with development of CRF. Receiver\u2010operating characteristic curve analysis showed that \u0394PaO<jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub> of \u22123.05\u2009Torr\/year is a useful cut\u2010off value to predict development of CRF in 6\u2009years (hazard ratio (HR): 12.6, 95% CI: 3.48\u201358.73, <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\u2009&lt;\u20090.0001).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>Patients with COPD and mild hypoxaemia may benefit from repeat ABG after 1\u2009year. Although PaO<jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub> trajectories widely varied, significant annual changes in PaO<jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub> of at least \u22123.0\u2009Torr\/year were predictive of CRF development.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/resp.13402","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,9,19]],"date-time":"2018-09-19T16:35:03Z","timestamp":1537374903000},"page":"262-269","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["Annual decline in arterial blood oxygen predicts development of chronic respiratory failure in COPD with mild hypoxaemia: A 6\u2010year follow\u2010up study"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"24","author":[{"given":"Kiyoshi","family":"Uemasu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine Kyoto University  Kyoto Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9626-1090","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Susumu","family":"Sato","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine Kyoto University  Kyoto Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shigeo","family":"Muro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine Kyoto University  Kyoto Japan"},{"name":"Department of Respiratory Medicine Nara Medical University  Kashihara Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Atsuyasu","family":"Sato","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine Kyoto University  Kyoto Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7481-0212","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Naoya","family":"Tanabe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine Kyoto University  Kyoto Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Koichi","family":"Hasegawa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine Kyoto University  Kyoto Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yoko","family":"Hamakawa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine Kyoto University  Kyoto Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tatsushi","family":"Mizutani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine Kyoto University  Kyoto Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yoshinori","family":"Fuseya","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory Medicine Japanese Red Cross Otsu Hospital  Otsu Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kazuya","family":"Tanimura","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory Medicine, Chest Disease Clinical and Research Institute Kishiwada City Hospital  Kishiwada Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tamaki","family":"Takahashi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory Medicine Japanese Red Cross Otsu Hospital  Otsu Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Toyohiro","family":"Hirai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Respiratory Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine Kyoto University  Kyoto Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,9,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","first-page":"199","article-title":"Hypoxemia in patients with COPD: cause, effects, and disease progression","volume":"6","author":"Kent BD","year":"2011","journal-title":"Int. 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