{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,7]],"date-time":"2026-09-07T15:12:54Z","timestamp":1788793974003,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":37,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2013,11,6]],"date-time":"2013-11-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1383696000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"name":"Brazilian Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq)","award":["140684\/2012-3"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["140684\/2012-3"]}]},{"name":"Brazilian National Institute of Science and Technology for Tropical Marine Environments (INCTAmbTropic)","award":["CNPq\/FAPESB 565054\/2010-4"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CNPq\/FAPESB 565054\/2010-4"]}]},{"name":"Brazilian National Institute of Science and Technology for Tropical Marine Environments (INCTAmbTropic)","award":["CNPq\/FAPESB 8936\/2011"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CNPq\/FAPESB 8936\/2011"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2014,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>We developed a stochastic model for quantitative risk assessment for the<jats:italic>Schistosoma mansoni<\/jats:italic>(SM) parasite, which causes an endemic disease of public concern. The model provides answers in a useful format for public health decisions, uses data and expert opinion, and can be applied to any landscape where the snail<jats:italic>Biomphalaria glabrata<\/jats:italic>is the main intermediate host (South and Central America, the Caribbean, and Africa). It incorporates several realistic and case\u2010specific features: stage\u2010structured parasite populations, periodic praziquantel (PZQ) drug treatment for humans, density dependence, extreme events (prolonged rainfall), site\u2010specific sanitation quality, environmental stochasticity, monthly rainfall variation, uncertainty in parameters, and spatial dynamics. We parameterize the model through a real\u2010world application in the district of Porto de Galinhas (PG), one of the main touristic destinations in Brazil, where previous studies identified four parasite populations within the metapopulation. The results provide a good approximation of the dynamics of the system and are in agreement with our field observations, i.e., the lack of basic infrastructure (sanitation level and health programs) makes PG a suitable habitat for the persistence and growth of a parasite metapopulation. We quantify the risk of SM metapopulation explosion and quasi\u2010extinction and the time to metapopulation explosion and quasi\u2010extinction. We evaluate the sensitivity of the results under varying scenarios of future periodic PZQ treatment (based on the Brazilian Ministry of Health's plan) and sanitation quality. We conclude that the plan might be useful to slow SM metapopulation growth but not to control it. Additional investments in better sanitation are necessary.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.12139","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2013,11,6]],"date-time":"2013-11-06T22:16:50Z","timestamp":1383776210000},"page":"831-846","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":14,"title":["An Ecological Model for Quantitative Risk Assessment for Schistosomiasis: The Case of a Patchy Environment in the Coastal Tropical Area of Northeastern Brazil"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"34","author":[{"given":"Heitor","family":"de Oliveira Duarte","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Production Engineering Centre for Risk Analysis and Environmental Modeling (CEERMA) Federal University of Pernambuco Recife Pernambuco Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Enrique Lopez","family":"Droguett","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Production Engineering Centre for Risk Analysis and Environmental Modeling (CEERMA) Federal University of Pernambuco Recife Pernambuco Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"M\u00e1rcio das Chagas","family":"Moura","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Production Engineering Centre for Risk Analysis and Environmental Modeling (CEERMA) Federal University of Pernambuco Recife Pernambuco Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elainne Christine","family":"de Souza Gomes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of Schistosomiasis Aggeu Magalh\u00e3es Research Centre Fiocruz Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Constan\u00e7a","family":"Barbosa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of Schistosomiasis Aggeu Magalh\u00e3es Research Centre Fiocruz Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ver\u00f4nica","family":"Barbosa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of Schistosomiasis Aggeu Magalh\u00e3es Research Centre Fiocruz Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Moacyr","family":"Ara\u00fajo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Oceanography Centre for Risk Analysis and Environmental Modeling (CEERMA) Federal University of Pernambuco Recife Pernambuco Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2013,11,6]]},"reference":[{"issue":"67","key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Control of neglected tropical diseases needs a long\u2010term commitment","volume":"8","author":"Zhang Y","year":"2010","journal-title":"BMC Medicine"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(06)70521-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","first-page":"73","article-title":"Evolu\u00e7\u00e3o e situa\u00e7\u00e3o atual do controle da esquistossomose no Brasil","volume":"27","author":"Amaral RS","year":"1994","journal-title":"Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","volume-title":"Parasitologia Humana","author":"Neves DP","year":"2011"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_1","volume-title":"Guia de Vigil\u00e2ncia Epidemiol\u00f3gica","author":"BRASIL","year":"2005"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1590\/S1020-49892003001100006"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198545996.001.0001","volume-title":"Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control","author":"Anderson RM","year":"1991"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2007.11.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0025-5564(01)00115-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2006.06.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11538-008-9330-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"179","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780195166460.003.0016","volume-title":"Species Conservation and Management: Case Studies","author":"Milner\u2010Gulland EJ","year":"2004"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511629396.015"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2265556"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198506201.001.0001","volume-title":"Ecology of Wildlife Diseases","author":"Hudson P","year":"2002"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0031182001007879"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_18_1","article-title":"Rio de Janeiro: Minist\u00e9rio do Planejamento, Or\u00e7amento e Gest\u00e3o. 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