{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,23]],"date-time":"2026-08-23T17:33:32Z","timestamp":1787506412840,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,11,19]],"date-time":"2015-11-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1447891200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000209","name":"National Academy of Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000209","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>In evaluating the risk of exposure to health hazards, characterizing the dose\u2010response relationship and estimating acceptable exposure levels are the primary goals. In analyses of health risks associated with exposure to ionizing radiation, while there is a clear agreement that moderate to high radiation doses cause harmful effects in humans, little has been known about the possible biological effects at low doses, for example, below 0.1 Gy, which is the dose range relevant to most radiation exposures of concern today. A conventional approach to radiation dose\u2010response estimation based on simple parametric forms, such as the linear nonthreshold model, can be misleading in evaluating the risk and, in particular, its uncertainty at low doses. As an alternative approach, we consider a Bayesian semiparametric model that has a connected piece\u2010wise\u2010linear dose\u2010response function with prior distributions having an autoregressive structure among the random slope coefficients defined over closely spaced dose categories. With a simulation study and application to analysis of cancer incidence data among Japanese atomic bomb survivors, we show that this approach can produce smooth and flexible dose\u2010response estimation while reasonably handling the risk uncertainty at low doses and elsewhere. With relatively few assumptions and modeling options to be made by the analyst, the method can be particularly useful in assessing risks associated with low\u2010dose radiation exposures.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.12513","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,11,19]],"date-time":"2015-11-19T01:09:20Z","timestamp":1447895360000},"page":"1211-1223","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":23,"title":["A Bayesian Semiparametric Model for Radiation Dose\u2010Response Estimation"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"36","author":[{"given":"Kyoji","family":"Furukawa","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics Radiation Effects Research Foundation  Hiroshima Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Munechika","family":"Misumi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics Radiation Effects Research Foundation  Hiroshima Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"John B.","family":"Cologne","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics Radiation Effects Research Foundation  Hiroshima Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Harry M.","family":"Cullings","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics Radiation Effects Research Foundation  Hiroshima Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,11,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","volume-title":"Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation","author":"United Nations Scientific Comittee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation","year":"2006"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1667\/RR0763.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1667\/RR2629.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","volume-title":"Health Risks from Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR VII Phase 2)","year":"2006"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_1","volume-title":"Ionizing Radiation Exposure of the Population of the United States","author":"National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements"},{"issue":"4","key":"e_1_2_7_7_1","first-page":"241","article-title":"Projection of cancer risks from the Japanese atomic bomb survivors to the England and Wales population taking into account uncertainty in risk parameters","volume":"39","author":"Little MP","year":"2000","journal-title":"Radiation\u00a0and\u00a0Environmental Biophysics"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00411-013-0508-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1667\/RR1091.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1148\/radiol.2312030880"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2214\/AJR.10.4907"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/0952-4746\/32\/3\/205"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.7403879"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/TAC.1974.1100705"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_15_1","volume-title":"Encyclopedia of Biostatistics","author":"Ron E"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_16_1","volume-title":"Model Selection and Multimodel Inference","author":"Burnham KP","year":"2002"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780080504"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.3841"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/ss\/1038425655"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1137\/1.9781611970128"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_21_1","volume-title":"All of Nonparametric Statistics","author":"Wasserman L","year":"2006"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_22_1","volume-title":"Modeling Survival Data: Extending the Cox Model","author":"Therneau TM","year":"2002"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_23_1","volume-title":"Generalized Additive Models","author":"Hastie TJ","year":"1990"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/106186002853"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/b14835"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2203\/dose-response.07-005.Scott"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/HP.0b013e3181b08a20"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_28_1","unstructured":"R Core Team. 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