{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,23]],"date-time":"2026-07-23T17:12:39Z","timestamp":1784826759614,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":58,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,1,3]],"date-time":"2018-01-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1514937600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Cooperative Agreement Number 1U2RGH001913\u201001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Cooperative Agreement Number 1U2RGH001913\u201001"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Due to security, access, and programmatic challenges in areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan, both countries continue to sustain indigenous wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission and threaten the success of global polio eradication and oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation. We fitted an existing differential\u2010equation\u2010based poliovirus transmission and OPV evolution model to Pakistan and Afghanistan using four subpopulations to characterize the well\u2010vaccinated and undervaccinated subpopulations in each country. We explored retrospective and prospective scenarios for using inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in routine immunization or supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). The undervaccinated subpopulations sustain the circulation of serotype 1 WPV and serotype 2 circulating vaccine\u2010derived poliovirus. We find a moderate impact of past IPV use on polio incidence and population immunity to transmission mainly due to (1) the boosting effect of IPV for individuals with preexisting immunity from a live poliovirus infection and (2) the effect of IPV\u2010only on oropharyngeal transmission for individuals without preexisting immunity from a live poliovirus infection. Future IPV use may similarly yield moderate benefits, particularly if access to undervaccinated subpopulations dramatically improves. However, OPV provides a much greater impact on transmission and the incremental benefit of IPV in addition to OPV remains limited. This study suggests that despite the moderate effect of using IPV in SIAs, using OPV in SIAs remains the most effective means to stop transmission, while limited IPV resources should prioritize IPV use in routine immunization.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.12962","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,1,3]],"date-time":"2018-01-03T21:34:14Z","timestamp":1515015254000},"page":"1701-1717","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":38,"title":["Modeling Poliovirus Transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan to Inform Vaccination Strategies in Undervaccinated Subpopulations"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"38","author":[{"given":"Radboud J.","family":"Duintjer Tebbens","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Kid Risk, Inc  Orlando FL USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mark A.","family":"Pallansch","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Viral Diseases, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  Atlanta GA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephen L.","family":"Cochi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  Atlanta GA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Derek T.","family":"Ehrhardt","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  Atlanta GA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Noha H.","family":"Farag","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  Atlanta GA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephen C.","family":"Hadler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  Atlanta GA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lee M.","family":"Hampton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  Atlanta GA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maureen","family":"Martinez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  Atlanta GA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Steve G.F.","family":"Wassilak","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  Atlanta GA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kimberly M.","family":"Thompson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Kid Risk, Inc  Orlando FL USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,1,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","volume-title":"Global Eradication of Poliomyelitis by the Year 2000 (Resolution 41.28)","author":"World Health Assembly","year":"1988"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2010.10.026"},{"issue":"45","key":"e_1_2_6_4_1","first-page":"1031","article-title":"Possible eradication of wild poliovirus type 3\u2014 Worldwide, 2012","volume":"63","author":"Kew OM","year":"2014","journal-title":"Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_5_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization.Global Wild Poliovirus 2011\u20132017 2017. 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