{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,3]],"date-time":"2026-06-03T20:43:30Z","timestamp":1780519410425,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":54,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,1,20]],"date-time":"2020-01-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1579478400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["5NU2RGH001913\u201003\u201000"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["5NU2RGH001913\u201003\u201000"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Nearly 20 years after the year 2000 target for global wild poliovirus (WPV) eradication, live polioviruses continue to circulate with all three serotypes posing challenges for the polio endgame. We updated a global differential equation\u2010based poliovirus transmission and stochastic risk model to include programmatic and epidemiological experience through January 2020. We used the model to explore the likely dynamics of poliovirus transmission for 2019\u20132023, which coincides with a new Global Polio Eradication Initiative Strategic Plan. The model stratifies the global population into 72 blocks, each containing 10 subpopulations of approximately 10.7 million people. Exported viruses go into subpopulations within the same block and within groups of blocks that represent large preferentially mixing geographical areas (e.g., continents). We assign representative World Bank income levels to the blocks along with polio immunization and transmission assumptions, which capture some of the heterogeneity across countries while still focusing on global poliovirus transmission dynamics. We also updated estimates of reintroduction risks using available evidence. The updated model characterizes transmission dynamics and resulting polio cases consistent with the evidence through 2019. Based on recent epidemiological experience and prospective immunization assumptions for the 2019\u20132023 Strategic Plan, the updated model does not show successful eradication of serotype 1 WPV by 2023 or successful cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine serotype 2\u2010related viruses.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13447","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,1,21]],"date-time":"2020-01-21T05:00:32Z","timestamp":1579582832000},"page":"248-265","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":42,"title":["Global Transmission of Live Polioviruses: Updated Dynamic Modeling of the Polio Endgame"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"41","author":[{"given":"Dominika A.","family":"Kalkowska","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Kid Risk, Inc.  Orlando FL USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mark A.","family":"Pallansch","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Viral Diseases, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  Atlanta GA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Steven G. F.","family":"Wassilak","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  Atlanta GA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephen L.","family":"Cochi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  Atlanta GA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kimberly M.","family":"Thompson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Kid Risk, Inc.  Orlando FL USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,1,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/JVI.02954-12"},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","first-page":"335","article-title":"Antiviral activity of pocapavir in a randomized, blinded, placebo\u2010controlled human oral poliovirus vaccine challenge model","volume":"215","author":"Collett M. S.","year":"2017","journal-title":"Journal of Infectious Diseases"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-016-1536-9"},{"issue":"5","key":"e_1_2_6_5_1","first-page":"340","article-title":"Maintenance and intensification of bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine use prior to its coordinated global cessation","volume":"7","author":"Duintjer Tebbens R. 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