{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,28]],"date-time":"2026-01-28T06:30:25Z","timestamp":1769581825955,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":42,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,4,29]],"date-time":"2020-04-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1588118400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Cooperative Agreement Number 5NU2RGH001913\u201004\u201000"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Cooperative Agreement Number 5NU2RGH001913\u201004\u201000"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Beginning in 2013, multiple local government areas (LGAs) in Borno and Yobe in northeast Nigeria and other parts of the Lake Chad basin experienced a violent insurgency that resulted in substantial numbers of isolated and displaced people. Northeast Nigeria represents the last known reservoir country of wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission in Africa, with detection of paralytic cases caused by serotype 1 WPV in 2016 in Borno and serotype 3 WPV in late 2012. Parts of Borno and Yobe are also problematic areas for transmission of serotype 2 circulating vaccine\u2010derived polioviruses, and they continue to face challenges associated with conflict and inadequate health services in security\u2010compromised areas that limit both immunization and surveillance activities. We model poliovirus transmission of all three serotypes for Borno and Yobe using a deterministic differential equation\u2010based model that includes four subpopulations to account for limitations in access to immunization services and dynamic restrictions in population mixing. We find that accessibility issues and insufficient immunization allow for prolonged poliovirus transmission and potential undetected paralytic cases, although as of the end of 2019, including responsive program activities in the modeling suggest die out of indigenous serotypes 1 and 3 WPVs prior to 2020. Specifically, recent and current efforts to access isolated populations and provide oral poliovirus vaccine continue to reduce the risks of sustained and undetected transmission, although some uncertainty remains. Continued improvement in immunization and surveillance in the isolated subpopulations should minimize these risks. Stochastic modeling can build on this analysis to characterize the implications for undetected transmission and confidence about no circulation.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13485","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,4,29]],"date-time":"2020-04-29T19:41:18Z","timestamp":1588189278000},"page":"289-302","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Modeling Poliovirus Transmission in Borno and Yobe, Northeast Nigeria"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"41","author":[{"given":"Dominika A.","family":"Kalkowska","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Kid Risk, Inc.  7512 Dr. Phillips Blvd., #50\u2010523 Orlando FL USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Richard","family":"Franka","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  Atlanta GA USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jeff","family":"Higgins","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Geospatial Research, Analysis and Services Program Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry  Atlanta GA USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Stephanie D.","family":"Kovacs","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  Atlanta GA USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Joseph C.","family":"Forbi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  Atlanta GA USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Steven G. F.","family":"Wassilak","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  Atlanta GA USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mark A.","family":"Pallansch","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  Atlanta GA USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kimberly M.","family":"Thompson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Kid Risk, Inc.  7512 Dr. Phillips Blvd., #50\u2010523 Orlando FL USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,4,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm6829a3"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1377\/hlthaff.28.4.1079"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1716677"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm6708a5"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/JVI.02954-12"},{"issue":"35","key":"e_1_2_7_7_1","first-page":"873","article-title":"Progress toward poliomyelitis eradication\u2014Nigeria, January 2004\u2013July 2005","volume":"54","author":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","year":"2005","journal-title":"Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report"},{"issue":"6","key":"e_1_2_7_8_1","first-page":"145","article-title":"Resurgence of wild poliovirus type 1 transmission and consequences of importation\u201421 previously polio\u2010free countries, 2002\u20132005","volume":"55","author":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","year":"2006","journal-title":"Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report"},{"issue":"23","key":"e_1_2_7_9_1","first-page":"640","article-title":"Update on vaccine\u2010derived polioviruses\u2014Worldwide, January 2014\u2013March 2015","volume":"64","author":"Diop O. 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