{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,11]],"date-time":"2026-10-11T16:16:53Z","timestamp":1791735413321,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":77,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,20]],"date-time":"2020-07-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1595203200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p><jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic> is a leading cause of foodborne illness (i.e., salmonellosis) outbreaks, which on occasion are attributed to ground turkey. The poultry industry uses <jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic> prevalence as an indicator of food safety. However, <jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic> prevalence is only one of several factors that determine risk of salmonellosis. Consequently, a model for predicting risk of salmonellosis from individual lots of ground turkey as a function of <jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic> prevalence and other risk factors was developed. Data for <jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic> contamination (prevalence, number, and serotype) of ground turkey were collected at meal preparation. Scenario analysis was used to evaluate effects of model variables on risk of salmonellosis. Epidemiological data were used to simulate <jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic> serotype virulence in a dose\u2010response model that was based on human outbreak and feeding trial data. <jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic> prevalence was 26% (<jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic> = 100) per 25 g of ground turkey, whereas <jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic> number ranged from 0 to 1.603 with a median of 0.185 log per 25 g. Risk of salmonellosis (total arbitrary units (AU) per lot) was affected (<jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic> \u2264 0.05) by <jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic> prevalence, number, and virulence, by incidence and extent of undercooking, and by food consumption behavior and host resistance but was not (<jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic> &gt; 0.05) affected by serving size, serving size distribution, or total bacterial load of ground turkey when all other risk factors were held constant. When other risk factors were not held constant, <jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic> prevalence was not correlated (<jats:italic>r<\/jats:italic> = \u22120.39; <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic> = 0.21) with risk of salmonellosis. Thus, <jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic> prevalence alone was not a good indicator of poultry food safety because other factors were found to alter risk of salmonellosis. In conclusion, a more holistic approach to poultry food safety, such as the process risk model developed in the present study, is needed to better protect public health from foodborne pathogens like <jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic>.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13563","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,21]],"date-time":"2020-07-21T06:07:16Z","timestamp":1595311636000},"page":"110-130","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":31,"title":["<i>Salmonella<\/i> Prevalence Alone Is Not a Good Indicator of Poultry Food Safety"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"41","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6253-1286","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Thomas","family":"Oscar","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"USDA, ARS  Princess Anne MD USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/diseases7010019"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","article-title":"Comparison of three modelling approaches to predict the risk of campylobacteriosis in New Zealand","volume":"62","author":"Al\u2010Sakkaf A.","year":"2020","journal-title":"Microbial Risk Analysis"},{"issue":"27","key":"e_1_2_6_4_1","first-page":"553","article-title":"Outbreak of Salmonella Heidelberg infections linked to a single poultry producer \u2010 13 States, 2012\u20132013","volume":"62","author":"Anonymous","year":"2013","journal-title":"MMWR Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_5_1","unstructured":"Anonymous. 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