{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,9]],"date-time":"2025-04-09T12:35:39Z","timestamp":1744202139850},"reference-count":53,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,21]],"date-time":"2020-08-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1597968000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100009633","name":"Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["P2C HD042828"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["P2C HD042828"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100009633","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>In Pakistan, annual poliovirus investment decisions drive quantities of supplemental immunization campaigns districts receive. In this article, we assess whether increased spending on poliovirus surveillance is associated with greater likelihood of correctly identifying districts at high risk of polio with assignment of an elevated \u201crisk ranking.\u201d We reviewed programmatic documents from Pakistan for the period from 2012\u20132017, recording whether districts had been classified as \u201chigh risk\u201d or \u201clow risk\u201d in each year. Through document review, we developed a decision tree to describe the ranking decisions. Then, integrating data from the World Health Organization and Global Polio Eradication Initiative, we constructed a Bayesian decision network reflecting investments in polio surveillance and immunization campaigns, surveillance metrics, disease incidence, immunization rates, and occurrence of polio cases. We test these factors for statistical association with the outcome of interest\u2014a change in risk rank between the beginning and the end of the one\u2010year time period. We simulate different spending scenarios and predict their impact on district risk ranking in future time periods. We find that per district spending increases are associated with increased identification of cases of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP). However, the low specificity of AFP investment and the largely invariant ranking of district risk means that even large increases in surveillance spending are unlikely to promote major changes in risk rankings at the current stage of the Pakistan polio eradication campaign.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13580","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,21]],"date-time":"2020-08-21T13:09:28Z","timestamp":1598015368000},"page":"273-288","update-policy":"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Disease Surveillance Investments and Administration: Limits to Information Value in Pakistan Polio Eradication"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"41","author":[{"given":"Ryan P.","family":"Scott","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Daniel J. Evans School of Public Policy and Governance University of Washington  Seattle WA USA"},{"name":"Political Science Colorado State University  Fort Collins CO USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Alison C.","family":"Cullen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Daniel J. Evans School of Public Policy and Governance University of Washington  Seattle WA USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Guillaume","family":"Chabot\u2010Couture","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Disease Modeling  P.O. Box 23350 Seattle WA 98102"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4324\/9781315089294-18"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(19)30524-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2131424"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/j.ctv1622mtp"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2006.00845.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2018-023290"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-016-1465-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13194"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s12560-017-9314-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/975658"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1155\/2016\/6837824"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","unstructured":"GPEI. Annual expenditure reports. (n.d.).Retrieved fromhttp:\/\/polioeradication.org\/financing\/expenditure-information\/annual-expenditure-reports\/"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1130388"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0185577"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-31816-5_3678-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jiph.2014.09.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00994016"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S095026881000316X"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(05)66386-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/175.Supplement_1.S113"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiv767"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13193"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139174084"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-015-2471-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2016.03.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0208336"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/973677"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.12032"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/JCM.37.6.1670-1675.1999"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-017-0941-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1002323"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_33_1","volume-title":"Uncertainty: A guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis","author":"Morgan M. G.","year":"1992"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jix077"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_35_1","unstructured":"National Emergency Action Plan for Polio Eradication (NEAP) 2015\u20132016. (2015).National Emergency Operations Center.https:\/\/reliefweb.int\/sites\/reliefweb.int\/files\/resources\/Final-pakistan-NEAP2015-16.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwq320"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/TP.0000000000001145"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2471\/BLT.09.066480"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0027059"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_40_1","unstructured":"Nutter B.(n.d.).HydeNet.Github. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/github.com\/nutterb\/HydeNet"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_41_1","unstructured":"OpenGov. (n.d.).Powering more effective and accountable government. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/opengov.com\/"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511807763"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/clinids\/13.5.926"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_44_1","unstructured":"Plummer M.(2004).JAGS: Just another Gibbs sampler. Retrieved fromhttp:\/\/www3.jouy.inra.fr\/miaj\/public\/matrisq\/Contacts\/applibugs.07_11_08.plummer.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.333.6041.395"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(12)70344-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.353.6301.738"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.359.6372.142"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13484"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/inte.2014.0769"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-016-0600-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2014.03.1247"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1711923115"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_54_1","unstructured":"WHO. (2014).WHO recommended surveillance standard of poliomyelitis. Retrieved fromhttp:\/\/www.who.int\/immunization\/monitoring_surveillance\/burden\/vpd\/surveillance_type\/active\/poliomyelitis_standards\/en\/"}],"container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/risa.13580","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/risa.13580","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/risa.13580","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,2]],"date-time":"2023-09-02T19:54:56Z","timestamp":1693684496000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/risa.13580"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,21]]},"references-count":53,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,2]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/risa.13580"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/risa.13580","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0272-4332","1539-6924"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0272-4332","type":"print"},{"value":"1539-6924","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,21]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2019-08-05","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2020-08-01","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2020-08-21","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}