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In this study, Poisson and mixed Poisson distributions with different upper tail behaviors were used for modeling source water <jats:italic>Cryptosporidium<\/jats:italic> and <jats:italic>Giardia<\/jats:italic> data from 30 drinking water treatment plants. Small differences (&lt;0.5\u2010log) were found between the \u201cbest\u201d estimates of the mean <jats:italic>Cryptosporidium<\/jats:italic> and <jats:italic>Giardia<\/jats:italic> concentrations with the Poisson\u2013gamma and Poisson\u2013log\u2010normal models. However, the upper bound of the 95% credibility interval on the mean <jats:italic>Cryptosporidium<\/jats:italic> concentrations of the Poisson\u2013log\u2010normal model was considerably higher (&gt;0.5\u2010log) than that of the Poisson\u2013gamma model at four sites. The improper choice of a model may, therefore, mislead the assessment of treatment requirements and health risks associated with the water supply. Discrimination between models using the marginal deviance information criterion (mDIC) was unachievable because differences in upper tail behaviors were not well characterized with available data sets (). Therefore, the gamma and the log\u2010normal distributions fit the data equally well but may predict different risk estimates when they are used as an input distribution in an exposure assessment. The collection of event\u2010based monitoring data and the modeling of larger routine monitoring data sets are recommended to identify appropriately conservative distributions to predict microbial peak events.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13613","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,26]],"date-time":"2020-10-26T12:45:51Z","timestamp":1603716351000},"page":"1396-1412","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Importance of Distributional Forms for the Assessment of Protozoan Pathogens Concentrations in Drinking\u2010Water Sources"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"41","author":[{"given":"\u00c9mile","family":"Sylvestre","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"NSERC Industrial Chair on Drinking Water, Department of Civil, Geological, and Mining Engineering Polytechnique Montreal  Montreal Quebec H3C 3A7 Canada"},{"name":"Canada Research Chair in Source Water Protection, Department of Civil, Geological, and Mining Engineering Polytechnique Montreal  Montreal Quebec H3C 3A7 Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mich\u00e8le","family":"Pr\u00e9vost","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NSERC Industrial Chair on Drinking Water, Department of Civil, Geological, and Mining Engineering Polytechnique Montreal  Montreal Quebec H3C 3A7 Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Patrick","family":"Smeets","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"KWR Water Research Institute  Groningenhaven 7 Nieuwegein 3433 PE The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gertjan","family":"Medema","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"KWR Water Research Institute  Groningenhaven 7 Nieuwegein 3433 PE The Netherlands"},{"name":"Sanitary Engineering, Department of Water Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Delft University of Technology  P.O. 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