{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,3]],"date-time":"2026-06-03T04:53:00Z","timestamp":1780462380011,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,15]],"date-time":"2021-02-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1613347200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":14,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["5NU2RGH001913\u201303\u201300"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["5NU2RGH001913\u201303\u201300"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>The polio endgame remains complicated, with many questions about future polio vaccines and national immunization policies. We simulated possible future poliovirus vaccine routine immunization policies for countries stratified by World Bank Income Levels and estimated the expected costs and cases using an updated integrated dynamic poliovirus transmission, stochastic risk, and economic model. We consider two reference cases scenarios: one that achieves the eradication of all wild polioviruses (WPVs) by 2023 and one in which serotype 1 WPV (WPV1) transmission continues. The results show that the addition of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) to routine immunization in all countries substantially increased the expected costs of the polio endgame, without substantially increasing its expected health or economic benefits. Adding a second dose of IPV to the routine immunization schedules of countries that currently include a single IPV dose further increases costs and does not appear economically justified in the reference case that does not stop WPV transmission. For the reference case that includes all WPV eradication, adding a second IPV dose at the time of successful oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation represents a cost\u2010effective option. The risks and costs of needing to restart OPV use change the economics of the polio endgame, although the time horizon used for modeling impacts the overall economic results. National health leaders will want to consider the expected health and economic net benefits of their national polio vaccine strategies recognizing that preferred strategies may differ.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13664","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,18]],"date-time":"2021-02-18T18:42:43Z","timestamp":1613673763000},"page":"364-375","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":14,"title":["Health and Economic Outcomes Associated with Polio Vaccine Policy Options: 2019\u20132029"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"41","author":[{"given":"Dominika A.","family":"Kalkowska","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Kid Risk, Inc.  Orlando FL USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kimberly M.","family":"Thompson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Kid Risk, Inc.  Orlando FL USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","first-page":"35","article-title":"Global eradication of poliomyelitis: Benefit\u2013cost analysis","volume":"74","author":"Bart K.","year":"1996","journal-title":"Bulletin of the World Health Organization"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-018-3074-0"},{"issue":"5","key":"e_1_2_6_4_1","article-title":"Maintenance and intensification of bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine use prior to its coordinated global cessation","volume":"7","author":"Duintjer Tebbens R. J.","year":"2016","journal-title":"Journal of Vaccines and Vaccination"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-14-45"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2012.01864.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.12031"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2010.10.026"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.12044"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.12022"},{"issue":"389","key":"e_1_2_6_11_1","article-title":"An economic analysis of poliovirus risk management policy options for 2013\u20132052","volume":"15","author":"Duintjer Tebbens R. J.","year":"2015","journal-title":"BMC Infectious Diseases"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2217\/fmb-2016-0126"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/2381468317697002"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2006.05.032"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13555"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13622"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13590"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13471"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13447"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0264-410X(02)00584-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.puhe.2004.08.020"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/14737167.2020.1812387"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2018.05.030"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(07)60532-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1586\/erv.11.195"},{"issue":"374","key":"e_1_2_6_26_1","article-title":"Health and economic consequences of different options for timing the coordinated global cessation of the three oral poliovirus vaccine serotypes","volume":"15","author":"Thompson K. M.","year":"2015","journal-title":"BMC Infectious Diseases"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.2007.122192"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13557"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13484"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13665"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(19)31279-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_32_1","unstructured":"World Bank. (2019).World Bank list of economies (June 2019). Retrieved fromhttp:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/data\/download\/site-content\/CLASS.xls"},{"issue":"48","key":"e_1_2_6_33_1","first-page":"585","article-title":"Meeting of the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on immunization, October 2020 \u2013 Conclusions and recommendations","volume":"95","author":"World Health Organization","year":"2020","journal-title":"Weekly Epidemiological Record"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_34_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization Global Polio Eradication Initiative. (2013).Polio eradication and endgame strategic plan (2013\u20132018). Geneva. Report No: WHO\/POLIO\/13.02. Retrieved fromhttp:\/\/polioeradication.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/PEESP_EN_A4.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_35_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization Global Polio Eradication Initiative. (2020).Strategy for the response to type 2 circulating vaccine\u2010derived poliovirus 2020\u20132021: Addendum to the polio eradication and endgame strategic plan (2019\u20132023). Geneva. Report No: WHO\/POLIO\/20.02. Retrieved fromhttp:\/\/polioeradication.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Strategy-for-the-response-to-type-2-circulating-Vaccine-Derived-Poliovirus-20200406.pdf"},{"issue":"4","key":"e_1_2_6_36_1","first-page":"561","article-title":"Projection of costs of polio eradication compared to permanent control","volume":"221","author":"Zimmermann M.","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Infectious Diseases"}],"container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/risa.13664","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/risa.13664","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/risa.13664","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,2]],"date-time":"2023-09-02T19:55:08Z","timestamp":1693684508000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/risa.13664"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,2]]},"references-count":35,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,2]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/risa.13664"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/risa.13664","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0272-4332","1539-6924"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0272-4332","type":"print"},{"value":"1539-6924","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,2]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2020-05-13","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2020-12-04","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-02-15","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}