{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,23]],"date-time":"2026-07-23T20:30:42Z","timestamp":1784838642749,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,5,14]],"date-time":"2022-05-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1652486400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Gene drive technology has been proposed to control invasive rodent populations as an alternative to rodenticides. However, this approach has not undergone risk assessment that meets criteria established by <jats:italic>Gene Drives on the Horizon<\/jats:italic>, a 2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. To conduct a risk assessment of gene drives, we employed the Bayesian network\u2013relative risk model to calculate the risk of mouse eradication on Southeast Farallon Island using a CRISPR\u2010Cas9 homing gene drive construct. We modified and implemented the R\u2010based model \u201cMGDrivE\u201d to simulate and compare 60 management strategies for gene drive rodent management. These scenarios spanned four gene drive mouse release schemes, three gene drive homing rates, three levels of supplemental rodenticide dose, and two timings of rodenticide application relative to gene drive release. Simulation results showed that applying a supplemental rodenticide simultaneously with gene drive mouse deployment resulted in faster eradication of the island mouse population. Gene drive homing rate had the highest influence on the overall probability of successful eradication, as increased gene drive accuracy reduces the likelihood of mice developing resistance to the CRISPR\u2010Cas9 homing mechanism.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13948","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,5,15]],"date-time":"2022-05-15T04:23:41Z","timestamp":1652588621000},"page":"2835-2846","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Bayesian network\u2010based risk assessment of synthetic biology: Simulating CRISPR\u2010Cas9 gene drive dynamics in invasive rodent management"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"42","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0827-4906","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ethan A.","family":"Brown","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, College of the Environment Western Washington University  Bellingham Washington USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Steven R.","family":"Eikenbary","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, College of the Environment Western Washington University  Bellingham Washington USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wayne G.","family":"Landis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, College of the Environment Western Washington University  Bellingham Washington USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,5,14]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","first-page":"517","article-title":"Lifetime development of behavioural phenotype in the house mouse (Mus musculus)","volume":"12","author":"Brust V.","year":"2015","journal-title":"Frontiers in Zoology"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","unstructured":"Campbell K. J. Sah J. R. Brown P. R. Godwin J. &Howald G. R.(2019).A potential new tool for the toolbox: assessing gene drives for eradicating invasive rodent populations. Staff Publications 2235.USDA National Wildlife Research Center."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pgen.1006796"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2004373117"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-021-03674-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_7_1","unstructured":"Eikenbary S. R.(2020).Incorporating characteristics of gene drive Ae. Aegypti as methods to reduce dengue and zika virus into the Bayesian Network \u2013 Relative risk model using Ponce Puerto Rico as a case study. 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M.(2020).MGDrive: Mosquito gene drive explorer. Package \u201cMGDrivE\u201d.https:\/\/CRAN.R\u2010project.org\/package=MGDrivEandhttps:\/\/github.com\/MarshallLab\/MGDrivE"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/2041-210X.13318"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_35_1","unstructured":"United States Fish and Wildlife Service. (2019a).South Farallon islands invasive house mouse eradication project: Final environmental impact statement.https:\/\/www.fws.gov\/uploadedFiles\/South_Farallon_Island_%20Invasive_House_Mouse_Eradication_Project_Final%20EIS.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_36_1","unstructured":"United States Fish and Wildlife Service. (2019b).South Farallon islands invasive house mouse eradication project \u2013 Final environmental impact statement \u2013 Appendices."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/90046"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1514258112"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_39_1","first-page":"1063:1072","article-title":"Development of a highly efficient multiplex genome editing system in outcrossing tetraploid alfalfa (Medicago sativa)","volume":"17","author":"Wolabu T. 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