{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,15]],"date-time":"2026-06-15T23:03:43Z","timestamp":1781564623975,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":95,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,18]],"date-time":"2022-09-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1663459200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>The COVID\u201019 pandemic has highlighted that health security systems must be redesigned, in a way that they are better prepared and ready to cope with multiple and diverse health threats, from predictable and well\u2010known epidemics to unexpected and challenging pandemics. A powerful way of accomplishing this goal is to focus the planning on health capabilities. This focus may enhance the ability to respond to and recover from health threats and emergencies, while helping to identify the level of resources required to maintain and build up those capabilities that are critical in ensuring the preparedness of health security systems. However, current attempts for defining and organizing health capabilities have some important limitations. First, such attempts were not designed to consider diverse scenarios and multiple health threats. Second, they provide a limited representation of capabilities and lack a systemic perspective. Third, they struggle to identify capability and resource gaps. In this article, we thus propose a new framework for identifying and structuring health capabilities and support health capability planning. The suggested framework has three main potential benefits. First, the framework may help policymakers in planning under high levels of uncertainty, by considering multiple realistic and stressful scenarios. Second, it can provide risk analysts with a more comprehensive representation of health capabilities and their complex relationships. Third, it can support planners in identifying resource and capability gaps. We illustrate the use of the framework in practice considering an outbreak scenario caused by three different health threats (COVID\u201019, Ebola, and Influenza viruses).<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.14014","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,19]],"date-time":"2022-09-19T02:34:55Z","timestamp":1663554895000},"page":"78-96","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["A framework for supporting health capability\u2010based planning: Identifying and structuring health capabilities"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"43","author":[{"given":"Marcelo","family":"Zawadzki","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Operational Sciences Air Force Institute of Technology  Wright\u2010Patterson AFB OH USA"},{"name":"Brazilian Air Force Governance Office  Brasilia DF Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1063-080X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gilberto","family":"Montibeller","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Management Science and Operations Group, School of Business and Economics Loughborough University  Loughborough UK"},{"name":"Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Threats and Emergencies (CREATE) University of Southern California  Los Angeles CA USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.138861"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1709.110295"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Aven T. &Flage R.(2020).Foundational challenges for advancing the field and discipline of risk analysis.Risk Analysis.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/risa.13496","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13496"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/520545"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140\u20106736(20)30673\u20105"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511598951"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/0-387-35209-0_3"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1108\/14636680710727516"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_10_1","volume-title":"Naval analytical capabilities: Improving capabilities\u2010based planning","author":"Naval Studies Board","year":"2005"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Brinn M. W. Carpenter M. Kamon M. Pigott D. Parnell G. S. &Stokes B.(2003).Designing and implementing an Army capability model.IEEE Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium 2003 301\u2013305.","DOI":"10.1109\/SIEDS.2003.158039"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2202\/1547\u20107355.1740"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214\u2010109X(15)00068\u20106"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_14_1","volume-title":"Public health preparedness capabilities: National standards for state and local planning","author":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","year":"2011"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_15_1","volume-title":"Public health emergency preparedness and response capabilities: National standards for state, local, tribal, and territorial public health","author":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","year":"2018"},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_7_16_1","first-page":"79","article-title":"Capability\u2010based planning for australia\u2019 s national security","volume":"6","author":"Chim L.","year":"2010","journal-title":"Security Challenges"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_17_1","volume-title":"Analytic architecture for capabilities\u2010based planning, mission\u2010system analysis, and transformation","author":"Davis P. K.","year":"2002"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_18_1","unstructured":"Davis P. Shaver R. &Beck J.(2008).Portfolio\u2010analysis methods for assessing capability options. In Rand.http:\/\/oai.dtic.mil\/oai\/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA477066"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1179\/2047773213Y.0000000122"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539\u20106924.2008.01196.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_21_1","unstructured":"Directive PPD\u20108(2011).Presidential policy directive (PPD)\u20108: National preparedness. US Department of Homeland Security.https:\/\/www.dhs.gov\/presidential\u2010policy\u2010directive\u20108\u2010national\u2010preparedness"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_22_1","volume-title":"Defence capability development manual","author":"Australian Department of Defence","year":"2006"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2471\/BLT.15.163931"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMsb2005114"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jcv.2009.06.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/0272\u20104332.00020"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sys.20101"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_28_1","unstructured":"Hales D. &Chouinard P.(2011).Implementing capability based planning within the public safety and security sector. DTCI Document. Defence R&D Canada \u2013 Centre for Security Science."},{"key":"e_1_2_7_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13572"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/ice.2015.300"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2202.151431"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0196-0644(03)00447-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sys.10043"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10393\u2010016\u20101100\u20105"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2004.04.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/0272\u20104332.215153"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/TSMCA.2010.2055154"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_38_1","unstructured":"Keeney R. L.(1992). Value\u2010focused Thinking: a Path to Creative Decisionmaking. 978\u20100674931985."},{"key":"e_1_2_7_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/opre.50.6.935.357"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/opre.1040.0158"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511611308.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0213190"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140\u20106736(11)61263\u20104"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140\u20106736(14)60260\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/514306"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1539\u20106924.00365"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0033-3549(04)50132-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_48_1","first-page":"69","volume-title":"Global health priority\u2010setting: Beyond cost\u2010effectiveness","author":"Lauer J.","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_49_1","volume-title":"COVID\u201019: The pandemic that never should have happened and how to stop the next one","author":"MacKenzie D.","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-1523.20.5.1055"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539\u20106924.2011.01590.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-030-98132-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1057\/palgrave.jors.2602214"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/mcda.403"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1057\/palgrave.jors.2602347"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_56_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1057\/jors.2009.178"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_57_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.12360"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-65052-4_15"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_59_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13542"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_60_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejor.2019.08.018"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_61_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1319946111"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_62_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/9781316882665"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_63_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijsu.2020.04.018"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_64_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjgh\u20102018\u2010001157"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_65_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539\u20106924.2009.01319.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_66_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140\u20106736(17)30129\u20100"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_67_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1057\/jors.2010.90"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_68_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMp2006141"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_69_1","unstructured":"Rempel M.(2010).An overview of the Canadian forces\u2019 second generation capability\u2010based planning analytical process(No. DRDC\u2010CORA\u2010TM\u20102010\u2010198). Defence Research and Development Canada Ottawa (Ontario) Centre for Operational Research and Analysis."},{"key":"e_1_2_7_70_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13596"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_71_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2015.07.016"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_72_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.12478"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_73_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2313.170418"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_74_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/smj.4250140304"},{"issue":"2","key":"e_1_2_7_75_1","first-page":"25","article-title":"Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking","volume":"36","author":"Schoemaker P. J. H.","year":"1995","journal-title":"Sloan Management Review"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_76_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Stoto M. A. &Nelson C.(2012).Measuring and assessing public health emergency preparedness: a methodological primer.http:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.2886349","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.2886349"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_77_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473\u20103099(20)30482\u20105"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_78_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jbusres.2020.08.037"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_79_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/10556780902865942"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_80_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0033\u2010295X.90.4.293"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_81_1","unstructured":"USA Department of Defense. (2008).National defense strategy.https:\/\/archive.defense.gov\/pubs\/2008NationalDefenseStrategy.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_82_1","unstructured":"USA Department of Health & Human Services. (2018).United States Health Security National Action Plan: Strengthening Implementation of the International Health Regulations based on the 2016 Joint External Evaluation.https:\/\/www.phe.gov\/Preparedness\/international\/Documents\/jee\u2010nap\u2010508.pdf%0Ahttps:\/\/www.phe.gov\/Preparedness\/international\/Pages\/JEE.aspx"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_83_1","unstructured":"USA Department of Health & Human Services. (2019).National Health Security Strategy 2019\u20132022.http:\/\/www.phe.gov\/Preparedness\/planning\/authority\/nhss\/strategy\/Documents\/nhss\u2010final.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_84_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Van den Broucke S.(2020).Why health promotion matters to the COVID\u201019 pandemic and vice versa.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/heapro\/daaa042","DOI":"10.1093\/heapro\/daaa042"},{"issue":"4","key":"e_1_2_7_85_1","first-page":"277","article-title":"The antibiotic resistance crisis: Part 1: causes and threats","volume":"40","author":"Ventola C. L.","year":"2015","journal-title":"Pharmacy and Therapeutics"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_86_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.39.8.937"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_87_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11077\u2010020\u201009381\u20104"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_88_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization. (2020).Rational use of personal protective equipment for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID\u201019) and considerations during severe shortages. Interim guidance 6 April 2020 (No. WHO\/2019\u2010nCov\/IPC_PPE_use\/2020.3). World Health Organization.https:\/\/apps.who.int\/iris\/handle\/10665\/331695"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_89_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization. (2022).WHO Coronavirus (COVID\u201019) dashboard.https:\/\/covid19.who.int\/"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_90_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13509"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_91_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1142\/S0219622019500408"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_92_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13478"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_93_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Zawadzki M. &Araujo D.(2011).Applying the scenario planning approach to support multicriterial strategic assessment.2011 IEEE International Multi\u2010Disciplinary Conference on Cognitive Methods in Situation Awareness and Decision Support CogSIMA 2011.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1109\/COGSIMA.2011.5753448","DOI":"10.1109\/COGSIMA.2011.5753448"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_94_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13794"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_95_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chaos.2020.109829"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_96_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473\u20103099(15)00234\u20100"}],"container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/risa.14014","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/risa.14014","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/risa.14014","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,18]],"date-time":"2023-08-18T08:13:01Z","timestamp":1692346381000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/risa.14014"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,18]]},"references-count":95,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/risa.14014"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/risa.14014","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0272-4332","1539-6924"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0272-4332","type":"print"},{"value":"1539-6924","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,18]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2022-09-18","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}