{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,9]],"date-time":"2026-03-09T14:55:29Z","timestamp":1773068129745,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":49,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,13]],"date-time":"2022-09-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1663027200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>The Grunow\u2013Finke epidemiological assessment tool (GFT) has several limitations in its ability to differentiate between natural and man\u2010made epidemics. Our study aimed to improve the GFT and analyze historical epidemics to validate the model. Using a gray relational analysis (GRA), we improved the GFT by revising the existing standards and adding five new standards. We then removed the artificial weights and final decision threshold. Finally, by using typically unnatural epidemic events as references, we used the GRA to calculate the unnatural probability and obtain assessment results. Using the advanced tool, we conducted retrospective and case analyses to test its performance. In the validation set of 13 historical epidemics, unnatural and natural epidemics were divided into two categories near the unnatural probability of 45%, showing evident differences (<jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u00a0&lt;\u00a00.01) and an assessment accuracy close to 100%. The unnatural probabilities of the Ebola virus disease of 2013 and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome of 2012 were 30.6% and 36.1%, respectively. Our advanced epidemic assessment tool improved the accuracy of the original GFT from approximately 55% to approximately 100% and reduced the impact of human factors on these outcomes effectively.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.14016","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,14]],"date-time":"2022-09-14T02:25:00Z","timestamp":1663122300000},"page":"1508-1517","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Using a grey relational analysis in an improved Grunow\u2013Finke assessment tool to detect unnatural epidemics"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"43","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8947-5421","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mengxuan","family":"Lin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Academy of Military Medical Sciences Academy of Military Science of Chinese PLA  Beijing China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hui","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Chinese People's Liberation Army  Beijing China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Leili","family":"Jia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Chinese People's Liberation Army  Beijing China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mingjuan","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Chinese People's Liberation Army  Beijing China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Shaofu","family":"Qiu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Chinese People's Liberation Army  Beijing China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hongbin","family":"Song","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Chinese People's Liberation Army  Beijing China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ligui","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Chinese People's Liberation Army  Beijing China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Tao","family":"Zheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Academy of Military Medical Sciences Academy of Military Science of Chinese PLA  Beijing China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473\u20103099(13)70204\u20104"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1404505"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1469\u20100691.12706"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140\u20106736(13)61504\u20104"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1021\/acs.estlett.5b00193"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.virusres.2015.09.002"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7205\/MILMED\u2010D\u201017\u201000090"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13255"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13472"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1678\u20109199\u201020\u201044"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2017.05.034"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268806007011"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10198\u2010015\u20100710\u20100"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4321\/s1887\u201085712019000400002"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1259657"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tim.2007.08.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1469\u20100691.2002.00524.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.healthplace.2020.102499"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature19790"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_2_10_21_1","first-page":"18","article-title":"The Islamic state and WMD: Assessing the future threat","volume":"9","author":"Hummel S.","year":"2016","journal-title":"CTC Sentinel"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0504.990419"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10669\u2010014\u20109506\u20105"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7205\/MILMED\u2010D\u201014\u201000482"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12985\u2010015\u20100439\u20105"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2111.151231"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140\u20106736(18)33132\u20105"},{"issue":"46","key":"e_1_2_10_28_1","first-page":"1077","article-title":"Ebola virus disease cases among health care workers not working in Ebola treatment units\u2013Liberia, June\u2010August, 2014","volume":"63","author":"Matanock A.","year":"2014","journal-title":"MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jir296"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tmsr.2018.09.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1751\u20107915.13318"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.coph.2021.08.002"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/mBio.00137\u201015"},{"issue":"4","key":"e_1_2_10_34_1","first-page":"359","article-title":"Case definition for Ebola and Marburg haemorrhagic fevers: A complex challenge for epidemiologists and clinicians","volume":"32","author":"Pittalis S.","year":"2009","journal-title":"The New Microbiologica"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiw198"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/bsp.2009.0016"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.puhe.2011.11.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.21101\/cejph.a4255"},{"issue":"4","key":"e_1_2_10_39_1","first-page":"376","article-title":"Bioterrorism","volume":"104","author":"Rathjen N. A.","year":"2021","journal-title":"American Family Physician"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473\u20103099(19)30055\u20106"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2303.160101"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.toxlet.2019.12.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/21665044.2016.1228326"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0810.020322"},{"issue":"2","key":"e_1_2_10_45_1","first-page":"115","article-title":"Aum Shinrikyo's chemical and biological weapons: More than Sarin","volume":"26","author":"Tu A. T.","year":"2014","journal-title":"Forensic Science Review"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2807\/1560\u20107917.es2013.18.38.20590"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473\u20103099(16)00077\u20103"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1159\/000178495"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/currents.outbreaks.0bf719e352e7478f8ad85fa30127ddb8"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0272\u20104332.2004.00488.x"}],"container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/risa.14016","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/risa.14016","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/risa.14016","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,17]],"date-time":"2023-08-17T05:28:22Z","timestamp":1692250102000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/risa.14016"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,13]]},"references-count":49,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,7]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/risa.14016"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/risa.14016","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0272-4332","1539-6924"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0272-4332","type":"print"},{"value":"1539-6924","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,13]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2022-09-13","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}