{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,29]],"date-time":"2026-09-29T19:13:52Z","timestamp":1790709232985,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":63,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,4,27]],"date-time":"2023-04-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1682553600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>This article investigates the economic impacts of a multi\u2010disaster mix comprising extreme weather, such as flooding, pandemic control, and export restrictions, dubbed a \u201cperfect storm.\u201d We develop a compound\u2010hazard impact model that improves on the ARIO model by considering the economic interplay between different types of hazardous events. The model considers simultaneously cross\u2010regional substitution and production specialization, which can influence the resilience of the economy to multiple shocks. We build scenarios to investigate economic impacts when a flood and a pandemic lockdown collide and how these are affected by the timing, duration, and intensity\/strictness of each shock. In addition, we examine how export restrictions during a pandemic impact the economic losses and recovery, especially when there is the specialization of production of key sectors. The results suggest that an immediate, stricter but shorter pandemic control policy would help to reduce the economic costs inflicted by a perfect storm, and regional or global cooperation is needed to address the spillover effects of such compound events, especially in the context of the risks from deglobalization.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.14146","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,4,28]],"date-time":"2023-04-28T01:30:04Z","timestamp":1682645404000},"page":"155-189","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["Assessing the economic impacts of a perfect storm of extreme weather, pandemic control, and export restrictions: A methodological construct"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"44","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3986-9059","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yixin","family":"Hu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics and Data Science Southern University of Science and Technology  Shenzhen China"},{"name":"School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia  Norwich UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5221-4965","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Daoping","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Computer Science and Technology University of Cambridge  Cambridge UK"},{"name":"Centre for Nature and Climate World Economic Forum  Geneva Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3082-8370","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jingwen","family":"Huo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua University  Beijing China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vicky","family":"Chemutai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The World Bank  Washington District of Columbia USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Paul","family":"Brenton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The World Bank  Washington District of Columbia USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7070-9723","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lili","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics and Data Science Southern University of Science and Technology  Shenzhen China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3773-3403","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Dabo","family":"Guan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth System Science Tsinghua University  Beijing China"},{"name":"The Bartlett School of Construction and Project Management University College London  London UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,4,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev\u2010earth\u2010071719\u2010055228"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.21642\/JGEA.040101AF"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","unstructured":"BBC News. (2021).Saharan dust: Orange skies and sandy snow in southern Europe. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/av\/world\u2010europe\u201055966867"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/rest_a_00750"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/reep\/rez004"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_7_1","unstructured":"Boyle L.(2020).2020 has been a bleak year in the climate crisis. So here's the good news. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/environment\/climate\u2010change\/climate\u2010change\u20102020\u2010record\u2010good\u2010news\u2010b1780393.html"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bubeck P. Otto A. &Weichselgartner J.(2017).Societal impacts of flood hazards.Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Science. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/oxfordre.com\/naturalhazardscience\/view\/10.1093\/acrefore\/9780199389407.001.0001\/acrefore\u20109780199389407\u2010e\u2010281","DOI":"10.1093\/acrefore\/9780199389407.013.281"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_9_1","first-page":"445","volume-title":"Integrated risk of pandemic: Covid\u201019 impacts, resilience and recommendations","author":"Chondol T.","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2020.19759"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.n292"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_12_1","unstructured":"ESCAP. (2019).Asia\u2010pacific disaster report 2019. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.unescap.org\/publications\/asia\u2010pacific\u2010disaster\u2010report\u20102019"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1596\/1813-9450-9253"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139177245"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_15_1","unstructured":"Gohd C.(2021).2020 ties record for the hottest year ever NASA analysis shows. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.space.com\/nasa\u2010confirms\u20102020\u2010hottest\u2010year\u2010on\u2010record"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41562\u2010020\u20100896\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539\u20106924.2008.01046.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.12090"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748\u20109326\/8\/3\/034014"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph17165635"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hsiang S. M. &Jina A. S.(2014).The causal effect of environmental catastrophe on long\u2010run economic growth: Evidence from 6 700 cyclones (No. 20352). Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w20352","DOI":"10.3386\/w20352"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pdisas.2020.100096"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1753\u2010318X.2009.01035.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.12300"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/09535314.2016.1232701"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_26_1","unstructured":"Kuo M. A.(2021).TSMC and Samsung: Semiconductor chip shortage. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2021\/07\/tsmc\u2010and\u2010samsung\u2010semiconductor\u2010chip\u2010shortage\/"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_27_1","unstructured":"Lackner S.(2018).Earthquakes and economic growth (No. 190). Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/EconPapers.repec.org\/RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2018:i:190"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Laframboise N. &Loko B.(2012).Natural disasters: Mitigating impact managing risks (No. 12\/245). Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2169784","DOI":"10.5089\/9781475512717.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess\u201019\u2010137\u20102019"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/wcc.252"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.12040"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oneear.2020.05.023"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_33_1","unstructured":"McCarthy N.(2021).The U.S. car models most impacted by the microchip shortage. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/niallmccarthy\/2021\/06\/01\/the\u2010us\u2010car\u2010models\u2010most\u2010impacted\u2010by\u2010the\u2010microchip\u2010shortage\u2010infographic\/?sh=2cd3f50580d2"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"McKibbin W. J. &Fernando R.(2020).The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID\u201019: Seven scenarios (No. 19\/2020). Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3547729","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.3547729"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13497"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511626982"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/09535314.2013.871505"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/17421772.2017.1300680"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_39_1","unstructured":"Oxford Analytica. (2020).Pandemic\u2010induced trade protectionism will persist.Expert Briefings.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1108\/OXAN\u2010ES257613"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2020GH000319"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558\u2010020\u20100804\u20102"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_42_1","unstructured":"Reuters. (2020).Hyundai Motor suspends output as coronavirus disrupts supply chain. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/hyundai\u2010motor\u2010virus\u2010china\u2010idUSS6N29P03H"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMp2022011"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_44_1","volume-title":"COVID\u201019 in the global south: Impacts and responses","author":"Selby D.","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_45_1","unstructured":"Shahid S.(2020).Deglobalization and its discontents: The pandemic effect. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/economics.td.com\/domains\/economics.td.com\/documents\/reports\/ss\/deglobalization.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.142634"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_47_1","unstructured":"Swaisgood M.(2020).When COVID\u201019 and natural hazards collide: Building resilient infrastructure in South Asia in the face of multiple crises. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.orfonline.org\/expert\u2010speak\/when\u2010covid19\u2010and\u2010natural\u2010hazards\u2010collide\/?MvBriefArticleId=18469"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2542\u20105196(20)30062\u20100"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748\u20109326\/abda70"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_50_1","unstructured":"UNEP. (2020).Locust swarms and climate change. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.unep.org\/news\u2010and\u2010stories\/story\/locust\u2010swarms\u2010and\u2010climate\u2010change"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_51_1","unstructured":"UNFCCC. (2015).Adoption of the Paris Agreement (Report No. FCCC\/CP\/2015\/L.9\/Rev.1). Retrieved from United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris France:http:\/\/unfccc.int\/resource\/docs\/2015\/cop21\/eng\/l09r01.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_52_1","unstructured":"UNISDR. (2015).Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction 2015\u20102030. Retrieved from United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Sendai Japan:http:\/\/www.wcdrr.org\/uploads\/Sendai_Framework_for_Disaster_Risk_Reduction_2015\u20102030.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_53_1","unstructured":"White D. A. L.(2020).2020 Atlantic hurricane season most active on record. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.msn.com\/en\u2010us\/weather\/topstories\/2020\u2010atlantic\u2010hurricane\u2010season\u2010most\u2010active\u2010on\u2010record\u2010noaa\/ar\u2010BB1aStCW"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_54_1","unstructured":"WHO. (2015).Climate change and human health. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.who.int\/globalchange\/global\u2010campaign\/cop21\/en\/"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558\u2010018\u20100173\u20102"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_56_1","volume-title":"World development report 2020: Trading for development in the age of global value chains","author":"World Bank","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_57_1","unstructured":"World Trade Organization. (2020).Export prohibitions and restrictions. Retrieved fromhttps:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/tratop_e\/covid19_e\/export_prohibitions_report_e.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2017.10.069"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_59_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijpe.2020.107878"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_60_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsta.2019.0209"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_61_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2019.124204"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_62_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13365"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_63_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748\u20109326\/ab794f"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_64_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558\u2010018\u20100156\u20103"}],"container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/risa.14146","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,11]],"date-time":"2024-01-11T02:32:15Z","timestamp":1704940335000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/risa.14146"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,4,27]]},"references-count":63,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/risa.14146"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/risa.14146","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0272-4332","1539-6924"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0272-4332","type":"print"},{"value":"1539-6924","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,4,27]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2021-04-29","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2023-03-16","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2023-04-27","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}