{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,8]],"date-time":"2026-10-08T16:30:38Z","timestamp":1791477038066,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,14]],"date-time":"2024-04-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1713052800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>The incidence of human illness due to <jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic> Infantis reported to Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network and the prevalence of Infantis on chicken carcasses reported by the United States Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service have increased significantly in the past decade. However, the trends do not appear coincident, as would be expected if the increased prevalence in chicken led to the increase in the incidence of human illness. <jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic> Infantis incidence and prevalence trends are analyzed using penalized B\u2010spline methods for generalized additive regression models. The association between the two time series is analyzed using time\u2010lagged rank\u2010order cross\u2010correlation. Geographic variations in reported incidence and trends are also explored. The increase in human incidence of <jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic> Infantis began circa 2011. The increase in chicken carcass prevalence began circa 2015. A 4\u2010year lag on chicken carcass prevalence maximizes the rank\u2010order cross\u2010correlation with the incidence of illness. While chicken consumption undoubtedly contributes to the incidence of human illness due to <jats:italic>Salmonella<\/jats:italic> Infantis, the initial increase in reported illness was likely due to one or more other transmission pathways. Other potential transmission pathways include non\u2010chicken foodborne, waterborne, person\u2010to\u2010person, animal contact, and environmental.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.14311","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,15]],"date-time":"2024-04-15T05:14:20Z","timestamp":1713158060000},"page":"2396-2402","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":13,"title":["Trends in <i>Salmonella<\/i> Infantis human illness incidence and chicken carcass prevalence in the United States; 1996\u20132019"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"44","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5456-0714","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mark R.","family":"Powell","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis, US Department of Agriculture  Washington, DC USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael S.","family":"Williams","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Food Safety and Inspection Service, US Department of Agriculture  Fort Collins Colorado USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2701.200316"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1197\/jamia.M2178"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2412.180500"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","volume-title":"Models in biology: Mathematics, statistics and computing","author":"Brown D.","year":"1993"},{"issue":"13","key":"e_1_2_7_6_1","first-page":"241","article-title":"Preliminary FoodNet data on the incidence of foodborne illnesses\u2014Selected sites, United States, 2000","volume":"50","author":"CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)","year":"2001","journal-title":"Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_7_1","unstructured":"CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). 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