{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,19]],"date-time":"2026-08-19T17:48:52Z","timestamp":1787161732357,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":52,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,9]],"date-time":"2024-06-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1717891200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>In 1977, the Soviet Union (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics [USSR]) notified the World Health Organization (WHO) about an outbreak of H1N1 influenza, which later spread to many countries. The H1N1 strain of 1977 reappeared after being absent from the world for over 20 years. This pandemic simultaneously spread to several cities in the USSR and China. Many theories have been postulated to account for the emergence of this pandemic, including natural and unnatural origins. The purpose of this study was to use the modified Grunow\u2013Finke risk assessment tool (modified Grunow\u2010Finke tool [mGFT]) to investigate the origin of the 1977 H1N1 pandemic. Data was collected from WHO archives and published documents. The assessment of the pandemic's origin involved the utilization of a modified version of the original Grunow\u2013Finke risk assessment tool (GFT). Using the mGFT, the final score was 37 out of 60 points (probability: 62%), indicating a high likelihood that the Russian influenza pandemic of 1977 was of unnatural origin. Several variables supported this finding, including the sudden re\u2010emergence of a previously extinct strain, a genetic signature of laboratory modification for vaccine development, and unusual epidemiology. Inter\u2010rater reliability was moderate to high. By applying the mGFT to the 1977 Russian influenza pandemic, we established a high probability that this pandemic was of unnatural origin. Although this is not definitive, it is consistent with the possibility that it originated from an incompletely attenuated live influenza vaccine. The mGFT is a useful risk analysis tool to evaluate the origin of epidemics.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.14343","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,9]],"date-time":"2024-06-09T21:37:46Z","timestamp":1717969066000},"page":"2696-2706","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Origin of the H1N1 (Russian influenza) pandemic of 1977\u2014A risk assessment using the modified Grunow\u2013Finke tool (mGFT)"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"44","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-3848-6097","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Fatema","family":"Kalyar","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Medicine, School of Population Health University of New South Wales  Sydney New South Wales Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9905-2307","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xin","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Medicine, Biosecurity Program, The Kirby Institute University of New South Wales  Sydney New South Wales Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Abrar Ahmad","family":"Chughtai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Medicine, School of Population Health University of New South Wales  Sydney New South Wales Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chandini Raina","family":"MacIntyre","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Medicine, Biosecurity Program, The Kirby Institute University of New South Wales  Sydney New South Wales Australia"},{"name":"College of Public Service &amp; Community Solutions Arizona State University  Tempe Arizona USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471\u20102334\u201014\u2010480"},{"issue":"7","key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Surveillance for influenza\u2013United States, 1997\u201398, 1998\u201399, and 1999\u201000 seasons","volume":"51","author":"Brammer T. L.","year":"2002","journal-title":"MMWR Surveillance Summaries"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1751-7915.14053"},{"issue":"8","key":"e_1_2_6_5_1","first-page":"64","article-title":"Influenza\u2014Worldwide","volume":"27","author":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)","year":"1978","journal-title":"Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_6_1","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (2022).How flu viruses can change: \u201cDrift\u201d and \u201cshift\u201d.CDC.https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/flu\/about\/viruses\/change.htm"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0022172400070571"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_8_1","unstructured":"Chen X.(2020).Advancedanalytical methods for outbreak investigation.UNSW Sydney."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7205\/milmed\u2010d\u201017\u201000090"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13255"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13472"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chen X. Kalyar F. Chughtai A. A. &MacIntyre C. R.(2024).Use of a risk assessment tool to determine the origin of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS\u2010CoV\u20102).Risk Analysis.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/risa.14291","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.14291"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_13_1","unstructured":"Colen B. D.. (1978).Russianflu has arrived in theU.S.The Washington Post.https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/archive\/politics\/1978\/01\/28\/russian\u2010flu\u2010has\u2010arrived\u2010in\u2010the\u2010us\/3d24b12b\u20105f75\u2010480d\u2010afc4\u2010f31f1de81113\/"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268806007011"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.2007.119933"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1201.051013"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_17_1","unstructured":"A Framework for an Australian Influenza Pandemic Plan. Technical Report Series No. 4. From the influenza Pandemic Planning Committee of the Communicable Diseases Network Australia New Zealand Version 1. (June1999).https:\/\/biotech.law.lsu.edu\/blaw\/flu\/au\u2010influenza.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_18_1","unstructured":"Furmanski M.(2014).Laboratory escapes and \u201cself\u2010fulfilling prophecy\u201d epidemics.Center for Arms Control and Non\u2010Proliferation.https:\/\/armscontrolcenter.org\/wp\u2010content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/Escaped\u2010Viruses\u2010final\u20102\u201017\u201014\u2010copy.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5694\/j.1326-5377.1991.tb101308.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.1978.03290210042022"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1469\u20100691.2002.00524.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/136.Supplement_3.S369"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1201.051254"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/JVI.00101-08"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1750\u20102659.2008.00051.x"},{"issue":"6","key":"e_1_2_6_26_1","first-page":"913","article-title":"Influenza in China in 1977: Recurrence of influenzavirus a subtype H1N1","volume":"56","author":"Kung H. 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