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Given its substantial costs, the feasibility and effectiveness of the Ike Dike have been subjects of investigation. In this study, we evaluated these aspects under both present and future climate conditions by simulating storm surges using a set of models. Delft3D Flexible Mesh Suite was utilized to simulate hydrodynamic and wave motions driven by hurricanes, with wind and pressure fields spatialized by the Holland model. The models were validated against data from Hurricane Ike and were used to simulate synthetic hurricane tracks downscaled from several general circulation models and based on different sea level rise projections, both with and without the Ike Dike. Flood maps for each simulation were generated, and probabilistic flood depths for specific annual exceedance probabilities were predicted using annual maxima flood maps. Building damage curves were applied to residential properties in the HGA to calculate flood damage for each exceedance probability, resulting in estimates of expected annual damage as a measure of quantified flood risk. Our findings indicate that the Ike Dike significantly mitigates storm surge risk in the HGA, demonstrating its feasibility and effectiveness. We also found that the flood risk estimates are sensitive to hurricane intensity, the choice of damage curve, and the properties included in the analysis, suggesting that careful consideration is needed in future studies.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.70060","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,18]],"date-time":"2025-06-18T21:35:22Z","timestamp":1750282522000},"page":"2865-2894","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Effectiveness of the Ike Dike in mitigating coastal flood risk under multiple climate and sea level rise projections"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"45","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-7207-351X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Seokmin","family":"Son","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Michigan  Ann Arbor Michigan USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8392-3705","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chaoran","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Engineering Research Center of Port Hydraulic Construction Technology Tianjin Research Institute for Water Transport Engineering, M.O.T.  Tianjin China"},{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, School of Marine Sciences East China Normal University  Shanghai China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5468-7192","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Meri","family":"Davlasheridze","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Marine and Coastal Environmental Science Texas A&amp;M University at Galveston  Galveston Texas USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8415-3383","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ashley D.","family":"Ross","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Marine and Coastal Environmental Science Texas A&amp;M University at Galveston  Galveston Texas USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7503-6652","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jeremy D.","family":"Bricker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Michigan  Ann Arbor Michigan USA"},{"name":"Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Delft University of Technology  Delft The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","unstructured":"Allen R. G. Pereira L. S. Raes D. &Smith M.(1998).Crop evapotranspiration\u2014Guidelines for computing crop water requirements\u2014FAO irrigation and drainage paper 56.Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)0733-9496(1989)115:1(94)"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","volume-title":"Hydrology and floodplain analysis","author":"Bedient P. B.","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","unstructured":"Berg R.(2009).Tropical cyclone report: Hurricane Ike (AL092008).National Hurricane Center."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","unstructured":"Bittle J.(2023).The \u2018Ike Dike\u2019 is the army corps of engineers' largest project ever. It may not be big enough. Grist Magazine.https:\/\/grist.org\/extreme\u2010weather\/houston\u2010ike\u2010dike\u2010army\u2010corps\u2010flooding\/"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","unstructured":"Blackburn J.(2019).Storm surge and the future of the houston ship channel.Reduce Flooding.https:\/\/reduceflooding.com\/wp\u2010content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/Storm\u2010Surge\u2010CFR\u2010paper.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2009MWR2906.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.49708135027"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)0733-950X(1997)123:3(120)"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11027-018-9814-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Davlasheridze M. Fan Q. Highfield W. &Liang J.(2021).Economic impacts of storm surge events: Examining state and national ripple effects.Climatic Change 166: 11.","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-021-03106-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","unstructured":"Deltares. (2024a).D\u2010flow flexible mesh. computational cores and user interface. User manual.Deltares."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_1","unstructured":"Deltares. (2024b).Delft3D\u2010Wave. Simulation of short\u2010crested waves with SWAN. User manual.Deltares."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_1","unstructured":"Deltares. (2024c).Delft3D\u2010WES. Wind enhance scheme for cyclone modelling. 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W.(2018).Final report\u2014Ike Dike concept for reducing hurricane storm surge in the Houston Galveston region.Jackson State University.https:\/\/www.tamug.edu\/ikedike\/pdf\/JSU\u2010Final\u2010Report\u2010Ike\u2010Dike\u2010Concept.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0426(2002)019<0183:EIMOBO>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature03906"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-89-3-347"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_23_1","unstructured":"Federal Emergency Management Agency [FEMA]. (2008).Mississippi coastal analysis project. Coastal documentation and main engineering report.US Department of Homeland Security.https:\/\/chs.erdc.dren.mil\/Library\/References\/Related_Coastal_Studies\/Legacy_Reports\/FEMA_2008_MSCoastalAnalysisProject.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_24_1","unstructured":"Federal Emergency Management Agency [FEMA]. (2013).Multi\u2010hazard loss estimation methodology. 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(2009).Ike storm surge inundation maps.HCFCD.https:\/\/www.hcfcd.org\/Portals\/62\/Flooding%20and%20Floodplains\/ike_stormsurge\u2010inundation_maps.pdf?ver=2020\u201001\u201003\u2010165548\u2010513"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1980)108<1212:AAMOTW>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2010MWR3317.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_35_1","unstructured":"Huizinga J. deMoel H. &Szewczyk W.(2017).Global flood depth\u2010damage functions. Methodology and the database with guidelines(EUR 28552 EN).European Union."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_36_1","unstructured":"Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]. (2023).Climate change 2023: Synthetic report. 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(2018).Cosliest U.S. tropical cyclones table updated.NHC.https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/news\/UpdatedCostliest.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_52_1","unstructured":"NOAA. (2000).Tidal Datums and their applications.NOAA National Ocean Service Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services.https:\/\/tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov\/publications\/tidal_datums_and_their_applications.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_53_1","unstructured":"NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. 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Pendleton M. \u2026Zuzak C.(2022).Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States: Updated mean projections and extreme water level probabilities along U.S. coastlines(NOAA Technical Report NOS 01).NOAA National Ocean Service.https:\/\/oceanservice.noaa.gov\/hazards\/sealevelrise\/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_59_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00477-013-0730-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_60_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/7\/1\/014032"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_61_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000212"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_62_1","unstructured":"U.S. Army Corps of Engineers [USACE]. (1981).Galveston's bulwark against the sea: History of the Galveston seawall.U.S. Army Corps of Engineers."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_63_1","unstructured":"U.S. Army Corps of Engineers [USACE] & Texas General Land Office [GLO]. 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