{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,3]],"date-time":"2026-01-03T03:24:26Z","timestamp":1767410666799,"version":"3.48.0"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,9]],"date-time":"2025-10-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1759968000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>In order to capture the regional differences, age stratification, and urban\u2010rural disparities in the dynamics of epidemic risks following eased restrictions, we developed a multilayered modeling framework that integrated social contact patterns with heterogeneous age\u2010demographic structures and incorporated dynamic population mobility networks across diverse regions. Our simulations of the COVID\u201019 pandemic unveiled spatiotemporal heterogeneity in epidemic trajectories, with the peak, duration, and burden varying significantly across provinces and demographic groups in China. The difference in peak times, up to half a month, provides actionable insights for dynamically allocating medical resources. Regional disparities were further evident, manifested by delayed epidemic peaks in rural areas relative to urban centers. Notably, older populations in rural regions exhibited a disproportionate vulnerability to severe outcomes, highlighting critical health equity concerns. We further investigated how individual behavioral risk preferences, particularly shifts in social contact patterns following the relaxation of restrictions, reshaped epidemic outcomes. Scenario analyses demonstrated that an immediate return to pre\u2010pandemic social interactions could precipitate near\u2010universal infection within 3 months, concurrent with a 2\u2010month shortage of hospital beds. Conversely, isolating infected individuals could enormously mitigate peak infections, particularly protect elderly populations, albeit prolong the overall duration of this epidemic. However, rebound mass gatherings could extend both the duration and complexity of epidemics<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.70118","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T02:45:22Z","timestamp":1760064322000},"page":"3875-3898","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Insight Into the Heterogeneous Risks of Epidemic Burden After Relaxing Interventions by a Multi\u2010Regional, Age\u2010Stratified Mathematical Model"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"45","author":[{"given":"Qinyue","family":"Zheng","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of International Affairs and Public Administration Ocean University of China  Qingdao China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Qingchun","family":"Meng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Management, Shandong Key Laboratory of Social Supernetwork Computation and Decision Simulation Shandong University  Jinan China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0569-3910","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chunbing","family":"Bao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Management, Shandong Key Laboratory of Social Supernetwork Computation and Decision Simulation Shandong University  Jinan China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,9]]},"reference":[{"volume-title":"Emerging Variants of SARS\u2010CoV\u20102 and Novel Therapeutics Against Coronavirus (COVID\u201019)","year":"2022","author":"Aleem A.","key":"e_1_2_9_2_1"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMc2200133"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","unstructured":"Asahi.2023.Survey: 74% Keep Wearing Face Masks After Easing of Rules. 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