{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,15]],"date-time":"2026-02-15T08:02:18Z","timestamp":1771142538277,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":53,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,25]],"date-time":"2025-12-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1766620800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,25]],"date-time":"2025-12-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1766620800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>This paper examines the rationality of elite bunker building as a response to anticipated societal collapse. Indeed, the phenomenon of \u201cprepping\u201d for \u201cthe Event\u201d can be framed as self\u2010insurance and relies on a transactional view of humanity, if one is to ensure the control of a compound and fight off potential assailants. We draw on economic decision modeling to analyze how the necessity of internal control by the leader, resentment, or the perception of potential loot by outsiders interact with fortification strategies. We introduce a \u201cMachiavelli index\u201d to represent hostility and show that excessive investment in defense can be counterproductive and provoke attack. Maximum bunkerization may not be optimal compared to a degree of cooperation, redistribution, and efforts to reduce perceived inequality. Survival in the end times may depend less on walls and more on legitimacy, reciprocity, and strategic\u00a0restraint.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.70165","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,26]],"date-time":"2025-12-26T07:02:31Z","timestamp":1766732551000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Compounds and Raiders: A Strategic Model of Self\u2010Protection in the End Times"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"46","author":[{"given":"Laurent","family":"Gauthier","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"ESPRI\/ArScAn Universit\u00e9 Paris Nanterre Nanterre France"},{"name":"Cliometry and Complexity IXXI Institut rh\u00f4nalpin des syst\u00e8mes complexes Lyon France"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_5_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/rfs\/hhw088"},{"issue":"5","key":"e_1_2_5_3_1","first-page":"292","article-title":"Apocalyptic Visions: The Maya Collapse and Mediaeval Europe","volume":"30","author":"Adams R. 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