{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,16]],"date-time":"2026-07-16T05:49:08Z","timestamp":1784180948339,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,14]],"date-time":"2026-04-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1776124800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,14]],"date-time":"2026-04-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1776124800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012226","name":"Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2024ZY\u2010SX16"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2024ZY\u2010SX16"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012226","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Systemic risks across the water\u2010energy\u2010food\u2010carbon (WEFC) nexus threaten the resilience of major river basins under converging climate, economic, and ecological pressures. This paper presents a bi\u2010level optimization and risk\u2010informed assessment framework that integrates multidimensional risk and equity metrics into resource allocation and policy design, with application to the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in China. By simulating five distinct scenarios, including baseline, climate change, sustainable development, economic priority, and technology innovation, the results show that different governance pathways produce sharply divergent outcomes for efficiency, equity, and systemic vulnerability. Technology\u2010 and market\u2010driven strategies increase basin\u2010wide economic output (up to 86.7 billion CNY for Nei Mongol Zizhiqu) but widen spatial inequalities (Gini index up to 0.663) and, in some provinces, raise systemic risk exposure (SRCI up to 0.493). Sustainable development pathways substantially reduce equity gaps (Gini 0.426) and rebalance resource allocation yet may elevate water stress or emissions locally. No single scenario achieves simultaneous gains across all objectives, but only risk\u2010informed, adaptive strategies reveal how targeted water rights trading and ecological safeguards can buffer regional vulnerabilities and enhance overall system resilience. Our results provide quantitative evidence that integrating risk and equity into nexus management enables more robust, context\u2010specific responses to compounding shocks in complex socio\u2010environmental systems.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.70248","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,14]],"date-time":"2026-04-14T08:46:59Z","timestamp":1776156419000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Systemic Risk\u2010Informed Bi\u2010Level Optimization for Resource Trade\u2010Offs in the Water\u2010Energy\u2010Food\u2010Carbon Nexus"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"46","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4954-9825","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Shiqi","family":"Tan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Business School Sichuan University  Chengdu China"},{"name":"Graduate School of Engineering The University of Tokyo  Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yuezhe","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Business School Sichuan University  Chengdu China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4596-0366","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Liming","family":"Yao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Business School Sichuan University  Chengdu China"},{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering Sichuan University  Chengdu China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory of Uncertainty Decision\u2010Makings Sichuan University  Chengdu China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tao","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Business School Sichuan University  Chengdu China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lingkang","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate 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