{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]],"date-time":"2026-10-06T03:51:05Z","timestamp":1791258665330,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":38,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,29]],"date-time":"2026-09-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1790640000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,29]],"date-time":"2026-09-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1790640000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>How do individuals transition from distress to suicidal ideation? Existing economic and epidemiological approaches typically model suicide risk as a function of expected outcomes or accumulated stressors, but they offer limited insight into how individuals evaluate worsening life circumstances under uncertainty. In this paper, we develop a dynamic, reference\u2010dependent model of suicidal ideation grounded in cumulative prospect theory. The model captures two behavioral mechanisms: (i) outcomes are evaluated relative to a shifting personal reference point, and (ii) perceived probabilities are transformed into nonlinear decision weights when individuals evaluate uncertain future states. Using longitudinal household\u2010level data from South Korea and a hierarchical Bayesian estimation strategy, we estimate individual\u2010level parameters governing loss aversion, probability weighting, and reference\u2010point adaptation. We find that transitions into suicidal ideation are significantly associated with entry into the loss domain relative to one's own prior well\u2010being, rather than with absolute income or health alone. Loss\u2010side sensitivity, rather than gain\u2010side valuation, shows the strongest association with ideation, especially following recent negative well\u2010being changes. These findings suggest that suicidal ideation is closely linked to how individuals perceive and process deteriorating conditions, rather than to those conditions alone. By integrating behavioral decision theory with longitudinal data, this study provides evidence consistent with a reference\u2010dependent loss\u2010processing pathway under uncertainty and helps explain vulnerability to extreme psychological\u00a0outcomes.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.70334","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,29]],"date-time":"2026-09-29T13:00:29Z","timestamp":1790686829000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["When Losses Matter More: A Dynamic Reference\u2010Dependent Evaluation of Suicide Risk"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"46","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4024-0431","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mamata","family":"Parhi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Roehampton University  London UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0356-7454","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jishu","family":"Dey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Southampton  UK"},{"name":"Vilnius University  Vilnius Lithuania"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ramzi","family":"Benkraiem","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Audencia Business School  Nantes France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ranadeva","family":"Jayasekera","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Trinity College, University of Dublin  Ireland"},{"name":"Vilnius University  Vilnius Lithuania"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6902-2326","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tapas","family":"Mishra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Southampton  UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598\u2010017\u201010541\u20105"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jep.27.1.173"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","unstructured":"Betancourt M.2017. \u201cA Conceptual Introduction to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.\u201d ArXiv preprint arXiv:1701.02434."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.socscimed.2023.116153"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","volume-title":"The Pattern of Human Concerns","author":"Cantril H.","year":"1965"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2017.01.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jel.46.1.95"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cutler D. M. E. L.Glaeser andK.Norberg.2001. \u201cExplaining the Rise in Youth Suicide.\u201dSSRN Electronic Journal.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.263440.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.263440"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/REST_a_00355"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/yco.0000000000000297"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/wcs.1561"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamapsychiatry.2013.75"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-12-205050-3.50008-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/bpp.2019.39"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpsyt.2018.00116"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fpsyt.2022.810867"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/260171"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_19_1","volume-title":"Adaptation\u2010Level Theory: An Experimental and Systematic Approach to Behavior","author":"Helson H.","year":"1964"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/jech\u20102018\u2010210696"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/a0016500"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1914185"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/jech\u20102019\u2010212981"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev\u2010clinpsy\u2010021815\u2010093204"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s44220\u2010024\u201000229\u2010x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.socscimed.2023.116538"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/da.23291"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1192\/bjp.187.1.49"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1238041"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/pam.22526"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurevclinpsy\u2010032511\u2010143109"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2017.0268"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.socscimed.2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0033291715001804"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_35_1","unstructured":"Smith G. 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G.2002. \u201cA Search Theory of Suicide.\u201dCalifornia State University."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41562\u2010024\u201001903\u2010x"}],"container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/risa.70334","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/risa.70334","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/risa.70334","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]],"date-time":"2026-10-06T03:02:13Z","timestamp":1791255733000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/risa.70334"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,29]]},"references-count":38,"journal-issue":{"issue":"10","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/risa.70334"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/risa.70334","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0272-4332","1539-6924"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0272-4332","type":"print"},{"value":"1539-6924","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,29]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2026-04-13","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-07-07","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-09-29","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e70334"}}