{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]],"date-time":"2026-10-06T03:50:55Z","timestamp":1791258655853,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]],"date-time":"2026-08-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1787616000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]],"date-time":"2026-08-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1787616000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Wildfire evacuation outcomes vary due to interactions among fire progression, human behavior, and traffic dynamics. Most models treat these factors separately, leaving a gap in integrated approaches. This study develops a tri\u2010coupled framework linking fire spread, multichannel communications, and agent\u2010based traffic modeling. The framework integrates a fire model, a communications model capturing varied cognition times, and a spatial\u2010queue traffic model, applied to three Marin County communities. Using a multi\u2010scalar strategic action fields perspective (macro, meso, and micro), the analysis shows how asynchronous communication, background traffic, and localized behaviors interact to shape outcomes. Evacuation efficiency depends on communication timing and coordination, with cognitive delays producing nonlinear congestion. Peak traffic reduces capacity, underscoring the need for governance mechanisms separating emergency from routine flows. At the community level, demographic, infrastructural, and temporal characteristics shape performance, requiring geographically targeted strategies. Micro\u2010level analyses highlight the disproportionate impact of everyday responsibilities, such as child pickup, on congestion, emphasizing behavioral realism in planning. The study offers implications for embedding adaptive communication, dynamic traffic management, and behavioral insights into institutionalized crisis information governance. The findings reveal that evacuation capacity functions as a form of access to safety, unevenly distributed by communications access, mobility constraints, and network characteristics. Linking these to continuous, data\u2010driven evaluation can enhance wildfire preparedness while creating scalable models for other hazard\u2010prone regions, advancing resilience and equity in evacuation systems.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.70338","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,26]],"date-time":"2026-08-26T04:11:54Z","timestamp":1787717514000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Multiscale Wildfire\u2010Evacuation Modeling: Assessing Differential Access to Safe Egress in Marin County, CA"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"46","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0982-5506","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Saemi","family":"Chang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Energy and Environment Korea University  Seoul Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Louise","family":"Comfort","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California  Berkeley California USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kenichi","family":"Soga","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California  Berkeley California USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pengshun","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California  Berkeley California USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yanglan","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California  Berkeley California USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_12_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijdrr.2025.105190"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jopart\/mum032"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/app13179587"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trip.2020.100210"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Comfort L. K. andN.Kapucu.2006. \u201cInterorganizational Coordination in Extreme Events: The World Trade Center Attacks September 11 2001.\u201dNatural Hazards Springer; International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards39 no.2:309\u2013327.","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-006-0030-x"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1540-6210.2007.00827.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_8_1","volume-title":"Shared Risk: Complex Systems in Seismic Response","author":"Comfort L. K.","year":"2007"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4324\/9781003253280-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cova T. J. P. E.Dennison T. H.Kim andM. A.Moritz.2005. \u201cSetting Wildfire Evacuation Trigger Points Using Fire Spread Modeling and GIS.\u201dTransactions in GIS.9 no.4:603\u2013617.","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9671.2005.00237.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1068\/a34251"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780199859948.001.0001"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_2_12_13_1","first-page":"17","article-title":"Complex Adaptive Systems","volume":"121","author":"Holland J. H.","year":"1992","journal-title":"Daedalus"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1061\/JTEPBS.0000221"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_15_1","unstructured":"Lavezzo T. S.Kramer B.Penfold et\u00a0al.2023.Marin County Current Conditions Evacuation Risk Assessment. Report No. STI\u20107934.Sonoma Technology."},{"key":"e_1_2_12_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10694-018-0771-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/03611981241242374"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13492"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_19_1","unstructured":"Marin County Civil Grand Jury.2019.Wildfire Preparedness: A New Approach.Marin County Civil Grand Jury.https:\/\/www.marincounty.gov\/departments\/grand\u2010jury\/civil\u2010grand\u2010jury\u2010reports\/2018\u20102019\u2010civil\u2010grand\u2010jury\u2010reports\/wildfire\u2010preparedness\u2010new\u2010approach."},{"key":"e_1_2_12_20_1","unstructured":"Marin County Fire Department.2018.Lessons Learned From the 2017 North Bay Fire Siege.Marin County Fire Department.https:\/\/www.marinwildfire.org\/about\u2010mwpa\/guiding\u2010documents."},{"key":"e_1_2_12_21_1","unstructured":"McChrystal Group.2025.After\u2010Action Review of Alert Notification Systems and Evacuation Policies for the Eaton and Palisades Fires.McChrystal Group.https:\/\/lacounty.gov\/aar\/."},{"key":"e_1_2_12_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/psj.12147"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_23_1","unstructured":"MTC (Metropolitan Planning Commission).2022.MTC\/ABAG Forecasting Modeling & Surveys.Metropolitan Transportation Commission.http:\/\/data.mtc.ca.gov\/data\u2010repository\/."},{"key":"e_1_2_12_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jopart\/muu021"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4324\/9781003253280-13"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0361198106196400126"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trd.2021.103147"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_28_1","unstructured":"Soga K. L.Comfort B.Zhao P.Lorusso andS.Soysal.2021.Integrating Traffic Network Analysis and Communication Network Analysis at a Regional Scale to Support More Efficient Evacuation in Response to a Wildfire Event.University of California Institute of Transportation Studies."},{"key":"e_1_2_12_29_1","unstructured":"Transportation Authority of Marin.2020.Transportation Authority of Marin Demand Model (TAMDM) Development Report.Transportation Authority of Marin.https:\/\/www.tam.ca.gov\/wp\u2010content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/TAMDM_Development_Report_9\u20101\u20102020.pdf."},{"key":"e_1_2_12_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/03081060.2024.2348713"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/su141912804"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Zhao B. K.Kumar G.Casey andK.Soga.2019. \u201cAgent\u2010Based Model (ABM) for City\u2010Scale Traffic Simulation: A Case Study on San Francisco.\u201d InInternational Conference on Smart Infrastructure and Construction 2019 (ICSIC) Driving Data\u2010Informed Decision\u2010Making.ICE Publishing.","DOI":"10.1680\/icsic.64669.203"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/03611981211030271"}],"container-title":["Risk Analysis"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/risa.70338","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/risa.70338","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/risa.70338","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]],"date-time":"2026-10-06T03:03:14Z","timestamp":1791255794000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/risa.70338"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]]},"references-count":32,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/risa.70338"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/risa.70338","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0272-4332","1539-6924"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0272-4332","type":"print"},{"value":"1539-6924","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-09-17","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-06-25","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-08-25","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e70338"}}