{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,5]],"date-time":"2026-06-05T12:42:18Z","timestamp":1780663338603,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":55,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,4]],"date-time":"2024-07-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1720051200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Tropical Med Int Health"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>This study aims to develop and validate predictive models that assess the risk of leprosy development among contacts, contributing to an enhanced understanding of disease occurrence in this population.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>A cohort of 600 contacts of people with leprosy treated at the National Reference Center for Leprosy and Health Dermatology at the Federal University of Uberl\u00e2ndia (CREDESH\/HC\u2010UFU) was followed up between 2002 and 2022. The database was divided into two parts: two\u2010third to construct the disease risk score and one\u2010third to validate this score. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to construct the disease score.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Of the four models constructed, model 3, which included the variables anti\u2010phenolic glycolipid I immunoglobulin M positive, absence of Bacillus Calmette\u2010Gu\u00e9rin vaccine scar and age \u226560\u2009years, was considered the best for identifying a higher risk of illness, with a specificity of 89.2%, a positive predictive value of 60% and an accuracy of 78%.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>Risk prediction models can contribute to the management of leprosy contacts and the systematisation of contact surveillance protocols.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/tmi.14020","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,4]],"date-time":"2024-07-04T07:25:11Z","timestamp":1720077911000},"page":"680-696","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Models for predicting the risk of illness in leprosy contacts in <scp>Brazil<\/scp>: Leprosy prediction models in Brazilian contacts"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"29","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0787-5259","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Edilamar Silva","family":"de Alecrin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Programa de P\u00f3s\u2010Gradua\u00e7\u00e3o em Ci\u00eancias da Sa\u00fade: Infectologia e Medicina Tropical Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais  Belo Horizonte Minas Gerais Brazil"},{"name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Hospitalar do Estado de Minas Gerais Hospital Eduardo de Menezes Hospital  Belo Horizonte Minas Gerais Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5211-411X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maria Auxiliadora Parreiras","family":"Martins","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Programa de P\u00f3s\u2010Gradua\u00e7\u00e3o em Ci\u00eancias da Sa\u00fade: Infectologia e Medicina Tropical Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais  Belo Horizonte Minas Gerais Brazil"},{"name":"Departamento de Produtos Farmac\u00eauticos, Faculdade de Farm\u00e1cia Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais  Belo Horizonte Minas Gerais Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4614-7502","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ana Laura Grossi","family":"de Oliveira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Programa de P\u00f3s\u2010Gradua\u00e7\u00e3o em Ci\u00eancias da Sa\u00fade: Infectologia e Medicina Tropical Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais  Belo Horizonte Minas Gerais Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8777-5068","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sandra","family":"Lyon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Hospitalar do Estado de Minas Gerais Hospital Eduardo de Menezes Hospital  Belo Horizonte Minas Gerais Brazil"},{"name":"Curso de Medicina Faculdade de Sa\u00fade e Ecologia Humana  Belo Horizonte Minas Gerais Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8158-7274","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ana Thereza Chaves","family":"Lages","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Programa de P\u00f3s\u2010Gradua\u00e7\u00e3o em Ci\u00eancias da Sa\u00fade: Infectologia e Medicina Tropical Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais  Belo Horizonte Minas Gerais Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7199-8590","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ilka Afonso","family":"Reis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Estat\u00edstica, Instituto de ci\u00eancias exatas Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais  Belo Horizonte Minas Gerais Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4111-7451","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Fernando Henrique","family":"Pereira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Pr\u00f3\u2010Reitoria de Gradua\u00e7\u00e3o Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais  Belo Horizonte Minas Gerais Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0008-9995-0503","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Dulcinea","family":"Oliveira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro de Refer\u00eancia Nacional em Dermatologia Sanit\u00e1ria e Hansen\u00edase, Hospital das Cl\u00ednicas Universidade Federal de Uberl\u00e2ndia (UFU\/EBSERH)  Uberl\u00e2ndia Minas Gerais Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3284-1037","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Isabela Maria Bernardes","family":"Goulart","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro de Refer\u00eancia Nacional em Dermatologia Sanit\u00e1ria e Hansen\u00edase, Hospital das Cl\u00ednicas Universidade Federal de Uberl\u00e2ndia (UFU\/EBSERH)  Uberl\u00e2ndia Minas Gerais Brazil"},{"name":"Departamento de Cl\u00ednica M\u00e9dica, Faculdade de Medicina Universidade Federal de Uberl\u00e2ndia Uberl\u00e2ndia  Uberl\u00e2ndia Minas Gerais Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4721-1767","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Manoel Ot\u00e1vio","family":"da Costa Rocha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Programa de P\u00f3s\u2010Gradua\u00e7\u00e3o em Ci\u00eancias da Sa\u00fade: Infectologia e Medicina Tropical Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais  Belo Horizonte Minas Gerais Brazil"},{"name":"Departamento de Cl\u00ednica M\u00e9dica, Faculdade de Medicina Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais  Belo Horizonte Minas Gerais Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","first-page":"409","article-title":"Global leprosy (Hansen disease) update, 2022: new paradigm \u2013 control to elimination","volume":"98","author":"World Health Organization","year":"2023","journal-title":"Wkly Epidemiol Rec"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.clindermatol.2006.05.012"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1309\/AJCPP72FJZZRRVMM"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciw570"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0009436"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","volume-title":"Diretrizes para vigil\u00e2ncia, aten\u00e7\u00e3o e elimina\u00e7\u00e3o da Hansen\u00edase como problema de sa\u00fade p\u00fablica: manual t\u00e9cnico\u2010operacional","author":"Brasil. Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade, Secretaria de Vigil\u00e2ncia em Sa\u00fade, Departamento de Vigil\u00e2ncia das Doen\u00e7as Transmiss\u00edveis","year":"2016"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","unstructured":"Brasil. Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade Secretaria de Vigil\u00e2ncia em Sa\u00fade.Portaria SCTIE\/MS n\u00b0 67 de 7 de julho de 2022. Torna p\u00fablica a decis\u00e3o de aprovar no \u00e2mbito do Sistema \u00danico de Sa\u00fade \u2013 SUS o Protocolo Cl\u00ednico e Diretrizes Terap\u00eauticas da Hansen\u00edase."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1590\/1980-549720210039"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1590\/s1678-9946202264055"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","unstructured":"Brasil. Conselho Nacional de Sa\u00fade. Resolu\u00e7\u00e3o n\u00ba 466 de 12 de dezembro de 2012. Bras\u00edlia 2012. Available from:https:\/\/conselho.saude.gov.br\/resolucoes\/2012\/Reso466.pdf. Accessed January 10 2021."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","unstructured":"Brasil. Conselho Nacional de Sa\u00fade. Comiss\u00e3o Nacional de \u00c9tica em Pesquisa. Carta Circular n\u00ba. 039\/2011. Uso de dados de prontu\u00e1rios para fins de Pesquisa. Bras\u00edlia 30 de Setembro de 2011. Available from:https:\/\/conselho.saude.gov.br\/Web_comissoes\/conep\/carta_circular\/Uso_de_dados_de_prontuarios_para_fins_de_Pesquisa.pdf. Accessed January 10 2021."},{"issue":"66","key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","first-page":"6599","article-title":"Risk factors associated with illness in leprosy contacts: a systematic review protocol","volume":"11","author":"Alecrin ES","year":"2021","journal-title":"Saude Colet"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.47276\/lr.82.4.389"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1590\/S0037-86822008000700006"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/CVI.00372-07"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1469-0691.12349"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0006494"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.47878\/hi.1999.v24.36547"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_20_1","first-page":"504","article-title":"VI International Congress of Leprologists, Madrid, 1953. Technical resolutions: classification","volume":"21","author":"International leprosy Congress","year":"1953","journal-title":"Int J Lepr"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(06)70412-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2019.08.067"},{"issue":"4","key":"e_1_2_9_23_1","first-page":"415","article-title":"Validation of regression models: methods and examples","volume":"19","author":"Snee RD","year":"1977","journal-title":"Dent Tech"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2018.07.010"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12874-023-01844-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/0471722146"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.1997.03550060067038"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003374"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/03610918.2012.661906"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/JCM.41.5.1991-1995.2003"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1590\/S0037-86822008000700004"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1590\/S0037-86822008000700002"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0001711"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1590\/0037-8682-0245-2015"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/INF.0000000000002337"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0285450"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1590\/S0365-05962007000300006"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10096-018-3320-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.47878\/hi.1985.v10.35556"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1590\/S0074-02762012000800015"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1590\/s1678-9946201961005"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1586\/erv.09.161"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-019-52640-5"},{"issue":"9","key":"e_1_2_9_44_1","article-title":"Epidemiological characteristics of leprosy in elderly Brazilians and comparison with other age groups (2016\u20102018)","volume":"36","author":"Rocha MC","year":"2020","journal-title":"Cad Saude Publica"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_45_1","unstructured":"Brasil. Departamento de Vigil\u00e2ncia das doen\u00e7as transmiss\u00edveis Secretaria de Vigil\u00e2ncia em Sa\u00fade Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade.Nota informativa conjunta n\u00b0 01 de 2016. Nota informativa conjunta \u2013 alerta para o exame sistem\u00e1tico de hansen\u00edase na popula\u00e7\u00e3o masculina e em idosos. Available from:https:\/\/www.saude.sp.gov.br\/resources\/cve\u2010centro\u2010de\u2010vigilancia\u2010epidemiologica\/areas\u2010de\u2010vigilancia\/hanseniase\/doc\/hans16_nota_informativa_conjuntan01_sas_svs.pdf. Accessed May 12 2023."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0006622"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1590\/0034-7167-2017-0651"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.33448\/rsd-v9i11.10745"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_49_1","article-title":"Kinship and leprosy in the contacts of leprosy patients: cohort at the Souza Ara\u00fajo outpatient clinic, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 1987\u20102010","volume":"2013","author":"Santos DS","year":"2013","journal-title":"J Trop Med"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0001013"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0006789"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ebiom.2021.103408"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-015-1254-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0007400"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_55_1","article-title":"Multiple dimensions of healthcare management of leprosy and challenges to its elimination","volume":"54","author":"Larocca LM","year":"2020","journal-title":"Rev Esc Enferm USP"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_56_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization (WHO).Towards zero leprosy. Global leprosy (Hansen's disease) strategy 2021\u20132030.2021. Available from:https:\/\/www.who.int\/publications\/i\/item\/9789290228509. Accessed January 20 2023."}],"container-title":["Tropical Medicine &amp; International Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/tmi.14020","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,2]],"date-time":"2024-08-02T01:56:19Z","timestamp":1722563779000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/tmi.14020"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,4]]},"references-count":55,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,8]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/tmi.14020"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/tmi.14020","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["1360-2276","1365-3156"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1360-2276","type":"print"},{"value":"1365-3156","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,4]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2024-07-04","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}