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There is limited published data on trends and forecasts of the comorbidity of non\u2010communicable diseases and HIV\/AIDS in low\u2010 and middle\u2010income countries. Hence, the aim of the study was to examine current trends and forecasts for non\u2010communicable diseases and non\u2010communicable disease\u2010HIV\/AIDS comorbidity.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Data on 30,686 patients from 2019 to 2022 were extracted from the non\u2010communicable diseases Mastercards, from 70 health facilities in Malawi, using a form designed and implemented in KoboToolBox. All cases were aggregated to form weekly counts of non\u2010communicable diseases and non\u2010communicable disease\u2010HIV\/AIDS comorbidity and visualised using time series plots. Then the data was subset by the prominent non\u2010communicable disease, which was hypertension and hypertension\u2010HIV\/AIDS comorbidity weekly counts. Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), a machine learning model, was used for model fitting, generating predictions, and forecasting.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The forecasts showed that the counts of cases per week will range from 137 to 185 cases. Then specifically, hypertension and hypertension\u2010HIV\/AIDS comorbidity case counts averaged approximately within the range of 111\u2013124 new cases per week from 2023 to 2030. The hypertension\u2010HIV\/AIDS comorbidity had forecasts ranging from 2 to 9 new cases per week. Although the number of new case counts per week had a consistent progression, the number of cases was on an increasing trend over time. Therefore, whether cases in general, hypertension and hypertension\u2010HIV\/AIDS comorbidity cases, or hypertension\u2010HIV\/AIDS comorbidity cases, the counts per week imply cumulatively higher case counts.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Despite the consistency in the projection to 2030, there is a need to consider the upward trend of these cases and implement intervention measures such as sensitisation to control the number of cases. Otherwise, Malawi may not be able to achieve SDG3 targets by 2030.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/tmi.14134","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,3]],"date-time":"2025-06-03T22:12:03Z","timestamp":1748988723000},"page":"782-800","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Temporal analysis of non\u2010communicable diseases and\n                    <scp>NCD<\/scp>\n                    \u2010\n                    <scp>HIV<\/scp>\n                    \/\n                    <scp>AIDS<\/scp>\n                    comorbidity in Malawi: A 4\u2010year retrospective study 2020\u20132022"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"30","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2285-8609","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ansley","family":"Kasambara","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematical Sciences, School of Science and Technology Malawi University of Business and Applied Sciences  Blantyre Malawi"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7597-3339","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mphatso S.","family":"Kamndaya","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematical Sciences, School of Science and Technology Malawi University of Business and Applied Sciences  Blantyre Malawi"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7895-6780","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Salule J.","family":"Masangwi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematical Sciences, School of Science and Technology Malawi University of Business and Applied Sciences  Blantyre Malawi"},{"name":"Centre for Water, Sanitation, Health and Appropriate Technology Development (WASHTED) Malawi University of Business and Applied Sciences  Blantyre Malawi"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9172-0366","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Atupele","family":"Mulaga","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematical Sciences, School of Science and Technology Malawi University of Business and Applied Sciences  Blantyre Malawi"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_13_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0019466221998841"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(20)30035-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"BignaJJ NoubiapJJ.The rising burden of non\u2010communicable diseases in sub\u2010Saharan Africa [Internet].2019Available from:www.thelancet.com\/lancetgh","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(19)30370-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4081\/jphr.2014.99"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-020-08890-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_7_1","unstructured":"The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV\/AIDS (UNAIDS).Learning Lessons from the AIDS Response to Control NCDs.2018."},{"key":"e_1_2_13_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pgph.0002952"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyx078"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_10_1","unstructured":"World Health Organisation.HIV: Fact Sheet [Internet].2023[cited 2023 Jun 9]. 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