{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,20]],"date-time":"2026-02-20T20:03:56Z","timestamp":1771617836455,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,16]],"date-time":"2014-07-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1405468800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Zoonoses and Public Health"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Summary<\/jats:title><jats:p>Human brucellosis is a re\u2010emerging bacterial anthropozoonotic disease, which remains a public health concern in China with the growing number of cases and more widespread natural foci. The purpose of this study was to short\u2010term forecast the incidence of human brucellosis with a prediction model. We collected the annual and monthly laboratory data of confirmed cases from January 2004 to December 2013 in Shandong Diseases Reporting Information System (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">SDRIS<\/jats:styled-content>). Autoregressive integrated moving average (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">ARIMA<\/jats:styled-content>) model was fitted based on the monthly human brucellosis incidence from 2004 to 2013. Finally, monthly brucellosis incidences in 2014 were short\u2010term forecasted by the obtained model. The incidence of brucellosis was increasing from 2004 to 2013. For the <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">ARIMA<\/jats:styled-content> (0, 2, 1) model, the white noise diagnostic check (<jats:italic>x<\/jats:italic><jats:sup><jats:italic>2<\/jats:italic><\/jats:sup> =\u00a05.58 <jats:italic>P\u00a0<\/jats:italic>=\u00a00.35) for residuals obtained was revealed by the optimum goodness\u2010of\u2010fit test. The monthly incidences that fitted by <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">ARIMA<\/jats:styled-content> (0, 2, 1) model were closely consistent with the real incidence from 2004 to 2013. And forecasting incidences from January 2014 to December 2014 were, respectively, 0.101, 0.118, 0.143, 0.166, 0.160, 0.172, 0.169, 0.133, 0.122, 0.105, 0.103 and 0.079 per100\u00a0000 population, with standard error 0.011\u20130.019 and mean absolute percentage error (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">MAPE<\/jats:styled-content>) of 58.79%.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/zph.12145","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,16]],"date-time":"2014-07-16T12:33:03Z","timestamp":1405513983000},"page":"228-235","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":21,"title":["Time\u2010Series Analysis on Human Brucellosis During 2004\u20132013 in Shandong Province, China"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"62","author":[{"given":"L.","family":"Yang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics Shandong University School of Public Health Jinan China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Z.\u2010W.","family":"Bi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Bacterial Infectious Disease Control and Prevention Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention Jinan China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Z.\u2010Q.","family":"Kou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Bacterial Infectious Disease Control and Prevention Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention Jinan China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"X.\u2010J.","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics Shandong University School of Public Health Jinan China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"M.","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics Shandong University School of Public Health Jinan China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"M.","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics Shandong University School of Public Health Jinan China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"L.\u2010Y.","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics Shandong University School of Public Health Jinan China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Z.\u2010T.","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics Shandong University School of Public Health Jinan China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2014,7,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3748\/wjg.15.1607"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-10-346"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Box G.E. 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