{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,3]],"date-time":"2026-04-03T06:59:31Z","timestamp":1775199571339,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,24]],"date-time":"2024-04-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1713916800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Zoonoses and Public Health"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Aims<\/jats:title><jats:p>The importation of rabid animals poses a continual threat to rabies freedom in the European Union (EU). Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the European Commission eased the rules on companion animal importations for Ukrainian refugees through derogations to the EU Pet Travel Scheme (EU PETS). As Ukraine remains endemic for canine rabies, this paper aimed to quantitatively assess whether the change in regulations affected the risk of rabies introduction to the EU.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Method and Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Transmission pathways for both EU PETS and derogations to this scheme were considered, as well as the scenarios of 100% compliance and reduced compliance within both schemes. Stochastic modelling was performed via a Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the median and 95% confidence intervals of the annual risk of rabies entry and the years between rabies entries into the EU. Following 100% compliance, the derogation scheme posed a significantly lower risk at a value of 3.63\u2009\u00d7\u200910<jats:sup>\u22123<\/jats:sup> (CI 95% 1.18\u2009\u00d7\u200910<jats:sup>\u22123<\/jats:sup>\u20139.34\u2009\u00d7\u200910<jats:sup>\u22123<\/jats:sup>) rabies entries per year in comparison to EU PETS where the risk was 4.25\u2009\u00d7\u200910<jats:sup>\u22122<\/jats:sup> (CI 95% 1.44\u2009\u00d7\u200910<jats:sup>\u22122<\/jats:sup>\u20139.81\u2009\u00d7\u200910<jats:sup>\u22122<\/jats:sup>). Despite a significantly lower risk as compared to EU PETS under 100% compliance, the derogation scheme was more sensitive to a reduction in compliance which resulted in a 74\u2010fold increase in risk. Given this, even under reduced compliance, the annual risk remained lower under the derogation scheme, although this was not statistically significant.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>The findings of this study suggest that a 4\u2010month period of quarantine, as modelled for the derogation scenario, could reduce the annual risk of rabies entry. This scheme may present a viable solution for the management of companion animal influxes in future crises.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1111\/zph.13135","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,25]],"date-time":"2024-04-25T04:44:30Z","timestamp":1714020270000},"page":"515-525","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Risk of rabies reintroduction into the European Union as a result of the Russo\u2010Ukrainian war: A quantitative disease risk analysis"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"71","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0008-6669-1373","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tirion Rebecca","family":"Cobby","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Bristol Veterinary School University of Bristol  Langford UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6843-3345","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mark Charles","family":"Eisler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Bristol Veterinary School University of Bristol  Langford UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s13370\u2010021\u201000882\u2010w"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2005.09.016"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mran.2017.11.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s0022\u20101759(97)00212\u20103"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13976"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","unstructured":"DEFRA. (2014).Consultation. Pet travel: Changes to the EU scheme. Department for Environment and Rural Affairs.https:\/\/consult.defra.gov.uk\/animal\u2010health\u2010and\u2010welfare\/changes\u2010to\u2010the\u2010eu\u2010pet\u2010travel\u2010scheme\/supporting_documents\/EU%20Pet%20Travel%20Consultation%20Document.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2903\/j.efsa.2023.8442"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","article-title":"Regulation (EU) No 576\/2013 of the European Parliament and of the council of 12 June 2013 on the non\u2010commercial movement of pet animals and repealing regulation (EC) No 998\/2003","volume":"56","author":"EUR\u2010Lex","year":"2013","journal-title":"Official Journal of the European Union"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","unstructured":"FECAVA. (2022).Free veterinary care for pets of Ukrainian refugees launched across Europe. Federation of European Companion Animal Veterinary Associations.https:\/\/www.fecava.org\/news\u2010and\u2010events\/news\/free\u2010veterinary\u2010care\u2010for\u2010pets\u2010of\u2010ukrainian\u2010refugees\u2010launched\u2010across\u2010europe\/#:~:text=Free%20veterinary%20care%20for%20pets%20of%20Ukrainian%20refugees%20launched%20across%20Europe \u2010Vets%20for%20Ukrainian&text=Brussels%2C%204%20April%202022%20%E2%80%93%20Ukrainian called%20Vets%20for%20Ukrainian%20Pets"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","unstructured":"Fortuna G.(2022).EU relaxes entry paperwork for pets travelling with Ukrainian refugees. EURACTIV.https:\/\/www.euractiv.com\/section\/health\u2010consumers\/news\/eu\u2010relaxes\u2010entry\u2010paperwork\u2010for\u2010pets\u2010travelling\u2010with\u2010ukrainian\u2010refugees\/"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539\u20106924.2012.01804.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_1","unstructured":"GOV.IE. (2022).Pet travel: To all owners of pets arriving into Ireland from the Ukraine. GOV.IE.https:\/\/www.gov.ie\/en\/publication\/21d40\u2010pet\u2010travel\/#special\u2010arrangements\u2010for\u2010ukraine\u2010and\u2010eu\u2010citizens\u2010in\u2010russia"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_14_1","unstructured":"GOV.IE. (2023).Rabies risk by country. GOV.UK.https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/rabies\u2010risks\u2010by\u2010country\/rabies\u2010risks\u2010interrestrial\u2010animals\u2010by\u2010country"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_15_1","unstructured":"H\u00f8g\u00e5sen H. R.(2005).Probability of rabies entry to Norway through dogs and cats. Quantitative model description and results. Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food Safety Panel on Biological Hazards National Veterinary Institute Norway.https:\/\/www.vetinst.no\/rapporter\u2010og\u2010publikasjoner\/rapporter\/2005\/probability\u2010of\u2010rabies\u2010entry\u2010to\u2010norway\u2010through\u2010dogs\u2010and\u2010cats"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_16_1","unstructured":"IFAW. (2022).Helpful information for people fleeing Ukraine with their pets. IFAW.https:\/\/www.ifaw.org\/international\/news\/resources\u2010flee\u2010ukraine\u2010pets"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539\u20106924.2005.00613.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2006.03.012"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268816002995"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/pathogens10060742"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.15421\/022134"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_22_1","unstructured":"MEEREB. (2018).Rabies in Ukraine: 4th MEEREB Meeting 2018. Fondation Merieux.https:\/\/www.fondation\u2010merieux.org\/wp\u2010content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/4th\u2010meereb\u20102018\u2010ukraine\u2010vitalii\u2010nedosekov\u20102.pdf"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vetmic.2008.06.024"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268810000415"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5210\/ojphi.v5i1.4502"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_26_1","unstructured":"PetFoodIndustry. (2014).Ukraine petfood market young but growing. PetFoodIndustry.https:\/\/www.petfoodindustry.com\/pet\u2010food\u2010market\/article\/15460096\/ukraine\u2010petfood\u2010market\u2010young\u2010but\u2010growing"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jiph.2017.03.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_28_1","unstructured":"Pyscripter. (2021).Excell addin for performing Monte Carlo simulation. XL Risk.Github.com.https:\/\/github.com\/pyscripter\/XLRisk"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268809991221"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2207.151733"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejim.2021.04.010"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/tropicalmed4040124"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_33_1","unstructured":"Ruokavirasto. (2022).Pets accompanying persons arriving in Finland fleeing the war in Ukraine. Ruokavirasto.https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20221029201411\/https:\/\/www.ruokavirasto.fi\/teemat\/tuonti\u2010ja\u2010vienti\/tuonti\u2010eun\u2010ulkopuolelta\/elaimet\u2010ja\u2010elainperaiset\u2010tuotteet\/ajankohtaista\/"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/imig.13100"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/BF03547705"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_36_1","unstructured":"Silverwood J.(2022a).APHA warns of rabies risk from Ukraine. Vet Times.https:\/\/www.vettimes.co.uk\/news\/apha\u2010warns\u2010of\u2010rabies\u2010risk\u2010from\u2010ukraine\/"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_37_1","unstructured":"Silverwood J.(2022b).Ukraine's EU neighbours waive pet restrictions amid war exodus. Vet Times.https:\/\/www.vettimes.co.uk\/news\/ukraines\u2010eu\u2010neighbours\u2010waive\u2010pet\u2010restrictions\u2010amid\u2010war\u2010exodus\/#:~:text=Officials%20in%20Romania%2C%20Poland%20and %2C%20flee%20war%2Dtorn%20Ukraine"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_38_1","unstructured":"UNHCR. (2023).Operational data portal: Ukraine refugee situation. UN Refugee Agency.https:\/\/data2.unhcr.org\/en\/situations\/ukraine"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fvets.2020.613712"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_40_1","unstructured":"Vince G.(2022).The century of climate migration: Why we need to plan for the great upheaval. The Guardian.https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/news\/2022\/aug\/18\/century\u2010climate\u2010crisis\u2010migration\u2010why\u2010we\u2010need\u2010plan\u2010great\u2010upheaval?fbclid=IwAR0OimTJXo6\u2010bCKiFOMUtsZllPM3zk\u20108O36RDUMdzn7ZaQS2vR3WTDwjZ1c"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_41_1","volume-title":"WHO expert consultation on rabies: Third report","author":"WHO","year":"2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_42_1","unstructured":"WHO. (2023).Rabies \u2013 Bulletin \u2013 Europe. Rabies Information System of the WHO. World Health Organisation.https:\/\/www.who\u2010rabies\u2010bulletin.org\/"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_43_1","unstructured":"World Bank. (2023).Population total \u2013 Ukraine. The World Bank.https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=UA"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_44_1","unstructured":"WVA. (2023).Fear of mass rabies outbreak in Europe due to war in Ukraine. World Veterinary Association.https:\/\/worldvet.org\/news\/fear\u2010of\u2010mass\u2010rabies\u2010outbreak\u2010in\u2010europe\u2010due\u2010to\u2010war\u2010in\u2010ukraine\/"}],"container-title":["Zoonoses and Public Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/zph.13135","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,1]],"date-time":"2024-07-01T11:33:16Z","timestamp":1719833596000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/zph.13135"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,24]]},"references-count":43,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,8]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/zph.13135"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/zph.13135","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["1863-1959","1863-2378"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1863-1959","type":"print"},{"value":"1863-2378","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,24]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2024-01-17","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-04-05","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-04-24","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}