{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,18]],"date-time":"2026-08-18T00:40:14Z","timestamp":1787013614482,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":95,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,6]],"date-time":"2025-10-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1759708800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,6]],"date-time":"2025-10-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1759708800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010661","name":"Horizon 2020 Framework Programme","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["774499"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["774499"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010661","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Applied Ecology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    <jats:list>\n                      <jats:list-item>\n                        <jats:p>Although jellyfish are an important component of coastal marine communities, their public perception is often tainted by their proclivity for aggregating in vast numbers, known as jellyfish blooms. Jellyfish blooms occur worldwide and are associated with major economic ramifications, particularly throughout the fisheries, aquaculture and tourism sectors. Predicting jellyfish blooms is crucial for managing and mitigating their ecological and economic impacts, but the complex life cycles and cryptic life stages exhibited by most jellyfish species largely preclude accurate predictions of their temporal and spatial occurrence.<\/jats:p>\n                      <\/jats:list-item>\n                      <jats:list-item>\n                        <jats:p>\n                          Here, we introduce a framework, combining state\u2010of\u2010the\u2010art hydrodynamic simulations and periodic population modelling approaches, to simulate spatial and temporal patterns in the formation of jellyfish blooms. While this framework is sufficiently flexible for accommodating various bloom\u2010forming jellyfish species and impacted coastal regions worldwide, we focus on moon jellyfish (\n                          <jats:italic>Aurelia aurita<\/jats:italic>\n                          ) populations within the Baltic Sea as an illustrative example.\n                        <\/jats:p>\n                      <\/jats:list-item>\n                      <jats:list-item>\n                        <jats:p>We emphasise how this framework can provide valuable insights for resolving key gaps in our understanding of the drivers of bloom events. Indeed, by doing so, this tool will help to guide the future collection of data needed to predict the locations and timings of their formation.<\/jats:p>\n                      <\/jats:list-item>\n                      <jats:list-item>\n                        <jats:p>\n                          <jats:italic>Synthesis and applications<\/jats:italic>\n                          . Crucially, the framework we present here offers an approach for identifying the, to date, unknown locations of polyp beds; a key parameter in enhancing our capacity to accurately predict the occurrence of jellyfish blooms. Accordingly, this framework represents a key decision\u2010support tool for mitigating the socio\u2010economic impacts of bloom formation.\n                        <\/jats:p>\n                      <\/jats:list-item>\n                    <\/jats:list>\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2664.70186","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,6]],"date-time":"2025-10-06T23:29:08Z","timestamp":1759793348000},"page":"2971-2986","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Coupling hydrodynamic drifting simulations and seasonal demographics to unmask the drivers of jellyfish blooms"],"prefix":"10.1111","volume":"62","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5529-1752","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"James","family":"Cant","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"MARE, Guia Marine Laboratory University of Lisbon  Cascais Portugal"},{"name":"Department of Biology University of Southern Denmark  Odense Denmark"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ingrid","family":"Ellingsen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"SINTEF Energy Research  Trondheim Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jack H.","family":"Laverick","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Strathclyde  Glasgow UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sanna","family":"Majaneva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology Norwegian University of Science and Technology  Trondheim Norway"},{"name":"Akvaplan\u2010niva  Trondheim Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jan","family":"Dierking","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research  Kiel Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicole","family":"Aberle","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology Norwegian University of Science and Technology  Trondheim Norway"},{"name":"Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Science (IMF), Universit\u00e4t Hamburg  Hamburg Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jamileh","family":"Javidpour","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology University of Southern Denmark  Odense Denmark"},{"name":"SDU Climate Cluster University of Southern Denmark  Odense Denmark"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5720-4686","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Owen R.","family":"Jones","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology University of Southern Denmark  Odense Denmark"},{"name":"SDU Climate Cluster University of Southern Denmark  Odense Denmark"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/hess\u201024\u2010535\u20102020"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11538\u2010009\u20109426\u20106"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00227\u2010005\u20101572\u20102"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/beheco\/arx022"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-7-304-2003"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1469-185X.1949.tb00581.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-12-438150-6.50018-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1365-2419.1999.00115.x"},{"issue":"2","key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","first-page":"211","article-title":"Jellyfish populations in the Mediterranean Sea","volume":"53","author":"Brotz L.","year":"2012","journal-title":"Acta Adriatica"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cant J. Ellingsen I. Laverick J. Majaneva S. Dierking J. Aberle N. Javidpour J. &Jones O.(2025).Code and Data from: Coupling hydrodynamic drifting simulations and seasonal demographics to unmask the drivers of jellyfish blooms.Zenodo.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.17154611","DOI":"10.1101\/2024.03.11.584451"},{"issue":"8","key":"e_1_2_10_12_1","first-page":"2069","article-title":"Ecological futures: Building an ecology of the long now","volume":"83","author":"Carpenter S. R.","year":"2002","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_1","volume-title":"Matrix population models: Construction, analysis and interpretation","author":"Caswell H.","year":"2001"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep12037"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_15_1","unstructured":"Chang W. Cheng J. Allaire J. J. Sievert C. Schloerke B. Xie Y. Allen J. McPherson J. Dipert A. &Borges B.(2021).Shiny:Web application framework for R. (R package version 1.7.0.).https:\/\/CRAN.R\u2010project.org\/package=shiny"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fevo.2018.00118"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2017.2116"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.293.5530.657"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1187051"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1210920110"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jembe.2014.10.018"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fevo.2018.00237"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ecolsys.36.102003.152644"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_24_1","volume-title":"Ecological Forecasting","author":"Dietze M. C.","year":"2017"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1710231115"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/fee.1994"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-007-7015-7_5"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/0012-9658(2000)081[0694:SSSAAN]2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00392960"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0426(2002)019<0183:EIMOBO>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2011.0172"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fmars.2024.1349956"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cub.2014.11.050"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_34_1","first-page":"1","volume-title":"Advances in marine biology","author":"Gershwin L. A.","year":"2013"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.12893"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/plankt\/fbt063"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1365\u20102656.13147"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/130298"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1011876004427"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2018.2325"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10750-008-9620-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.12100"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2018.09.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.3803"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3354\/meps165259"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10750\u2010010\u20100214\u2010y"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/oik.03726"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_2_10_48_1","first-page":"26","article-title":"Survivorship and production of Aurelia aurita Ephyrae in the innermost part of Tokyo Bay, Japan","volume":"51","author":"Ishii H.","year":"2004","journal-title":"Plankton Biology and Ecology"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fmars.2021.772851"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/2041\u2010210X.13511"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10750\u2010021\u201004539\u20104"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_52_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aau6020"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_53_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2528348"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_54_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10750\u2010010\u20100233\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/eap.2500"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_56_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2166\/nh.2010.007"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_57_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3354\/meps109059"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_58_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10750\u2010020\u201004483\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_59_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/plankt\/18.6.987"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_60_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1011836326717"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_61_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-007-7015-7_2"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_62_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-12-394282-1.00003-X"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_63_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s002270050355"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_64_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/plankt\/16.7.879"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_65_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/09\u20101275.1"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_66_1","unstructured":"Marambio M. Lopez L. Kefi\u2010Daly Yahia O. Daly Yahia M. N. Deidun A. Piraino S. Nunes P. A. L. D. &Fuentes V.(2016).The Medjelly app: A preventive and mitigation tool against jellyfish blooms involving a citizen science network.5th International Jellyfish Bloom Symposium."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_67_1","unstructured":"Margonski P. &Horbowa K.(1994).Co\u2010occurrence of medusae and cod eggs in the Bornholm Basin."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_68_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jag.2020.102279"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_69_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ecy.3365"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_70_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.00839"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_71_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1365\u20102664.12482"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_72_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0012467"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_73_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.12443"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_74_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s002270000399"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_75_1","volume-title":"R: A language and environment for statistical computing","author":"R Core Team","year":"2022"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_76_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aar8195"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_77_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.1700707"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_78_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9876.2005.00510.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_79_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3354\/esr00095"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_80_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1116791109"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_81_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3354\/meps041099"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_82_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pocean.2011.02.009"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_83_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmarsys.2005.05.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_84_1","first-page":"119","article-title":"Climate change and carbon flux in the Barents Sea: 3\u2010D simulations of ice\u2010distribution, primary production and vertical export of particulate organic carbon","volume":"51","author":"Slagstad D.","year":"1996","journal-title":"Memoirs of National Institute of Polar Research: Special Issue"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_85_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/17451000.2021.1964532"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_86_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rsma.2020.101444"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_87_1","volume-title":"Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction","author":"Tetlock P. E.","year":"2015"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_88_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3800\/pbr.3.125"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_89_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2013JC009192"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_90_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0169\u20105347(88)90060\u20102"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_91_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/icb\/icx123"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_92_1","unstructured":"Volpe C. Borgersen \u00c5. L. Edelist D. Javid J. Laverick J. Majaneva S. Molinero J. C. &Aberle N.(2023).GoJelly databank: A compilation of jellyfish observation data and metadata. PANGAEA.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1594\/PANGAEA.952456"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_93_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmarsys.2005.05.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_94_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/2041\u2010210X.13104"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_95_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3354\/meps11879"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_96_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/bg\u201018\u20101291\u20102021"}],"container-title":["Journal of Applied Ecology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/1365-2664.70186","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1111\/1365-2664.70186","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/1365-2664.70186","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,17]],"date-time":"2026-02-17T06:50:36Z","timestamp":1771311036000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/1365-2664.70186"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,6]]},"references-count":95,"journal-issue":{"issue":"11","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,11]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1111\/1365-2664.70186"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/1365-2664.70186","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0021-8901","1365-2664"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0021-8901","type":"print"},{"value":"1365-2664","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,6]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2024-10-24","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-09-17","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-10-06","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}