{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,23]],"date-time":"2026-03-23T19:39:19Z","timestamp":1774294759817,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":40,"publisher":"ASME International","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,19]],"date-time":"2021-04-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1618790400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.asme.org\/publications-submissions\/publishing-information\/legal-policies"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100008530","name":"European Regional Development Fund","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100008530","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["asmedigitalcollection.asme.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:p>An improved understanding of the present and future marine climatology is necessary for numerous activities, such as the operation of offshore structures, optimization of ship routes, and evaluation of wave energy resources. To produce global wave information, the WAVEWATCH III wave model was forced with wind and ice-cover data from an RCP8.5 EC-Earth system integration for two 30-year time slices. The first covering the periods from 1980 to 2009 represents the present climate, and the second, covering the periods from 2070 to 2099, represents the climate at the end of the twenty-first century. Descriptive empirical statistics of wind and wave parameters are obtained for different 30-year time slices, for the North Atlantic Ocean. Regarding wind, magnitude and direction will be used. For wave, significant wave height of the total sea, mean wave period, peak period, mean wave direction, and energy will be investigated. Changes from present to future climate are evaluated, regarding both mean and extreme events. Maps of these empirical statistics are presented. The long-term monthly joint distribution of significant wave heights and peak periods is generated. Changes from present to future climate are assessed, comparing the empirical statistics between time slices.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1115\/1.4050698","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,30]],"date-time":"2021-03-30T05:39:47Z","timestamp":1617082787000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1115\/crossmarkpolicy-asme","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":15,"title":["Marine Climate Projections Toward the End of the Twenty-First Century in the North Atlantic"],"prefix":"10.1115","volume":"143","author":[{"given":"M.","family":"Bernardino","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC); Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico, University of Lisbon, Avenida Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"given":"M.","family":"Gon\u00e7alves","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC); Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico, University of Lisbon, Avenida Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"given":"C.","family":"Guedes Soares","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC); Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico, University of LisbonAvenida Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal"}]}],"member":"33","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0001","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"183","DOI":"10.1016\/j.renene.2012.02.027","article-title":"Wave Energy Assessments in the Azores Islands","volume":"45","author":"Rusu","year":"2012","journal-title":"Renewable Energy"},{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0002","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"35","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ocemod.2014.09.002","article-title":"Wave Climate Projections Along the French Coastline: Dynamical Versus Statistical Downscaling Methods","volume":"84","author":"Laugel","year":"2014","journal-title":"Ocean Modell."},{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0003","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"34","DOI":"10.1016\/j.renene.2013.03.001","article-title":"Coastal Impact Induced by a Pelamis Wave Farm Operating in the Portuguese Nearshore","volume":"58","author":"Rusu","year":"2013","journal-title":"Renewable Energy"},{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0004","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"53","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apor.2014.01.002","article-title":"Probabilistic Estimation of Coastal Dune Erosion and Recession by Statistical Simulation of Storm Events","volume":"47","author":"Li","year":"2014","journal-title":"Appl. Ocean Res."},{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0005","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"81","DOI":"10.1016\/j.geomorph.2011.07.036","article-title":"Critical Storm Thresholds for Morphological Changes in the Western Black Sea Coastal Zone","volume":"143","author":"Trifonova","year":"2012","journal-title":"Geomorphology"},{"issue":"1\u20132","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0006","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-011-0148-z","article-title":"The Representative Concentration Pathways: An Overview","volume":"109","author":"Van Vuuren","year":"2011","journal-title":"Clim. Change"},{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0007","first-page":"976","volume-title":"Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","author":"IPCC","year":"2007"},{"issue":"5","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0008","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"471","DOI":"10.1038\/NCLIMATE1791","article-title":"Projected Changes in Wave Climate From a Multi-model Ensemble","volume":"3","author":"Hemer","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nat. Clim. Change"},{"issue":"21","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0009","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"8269","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-12-00658.1","article-title":"Projection of Global Wave Climate Change Toward the End of the Twenty-First Century","volume":"26","author":"Semedo","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"issue":"3","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0010","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"201","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2118","article-title":"A Global Perspective on CMIP5 Climate Model Biases","volume":"4","author":"Wang","year":"2014","journal-title":"Nat. Clim. Change"},{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0011","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"160","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloplacha.2018.05.005","article-title":"On the Concordance of 21st Century Wind-Wave Climate Projections","volume":"167","author":"Morim","year":"2018","journal-title":"Global Planet. Change"},{"issue":"12","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0012","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"8762","DOI":"10.1029\/2018JC013866","article-title":"Future Wave Conditions of Europe, in Response to High-End Climate Change Scenarios","volume":"123","author":"Bricheno","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res. Oceans"},{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0013","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"226","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oceaneng.2017.12.023","article-title":"Climate Change and Safe Design of Ship Structures","volume":"149","author":"Bitner-Gregersen","year":"2018","journal-title":"Ocean Eng."},{"issue":"4","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0014","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3394","DOI":"10.1002\/2016JC012521","article-title":"Projected Changes in Significant Wave Height Toward the End of the 21st Century: Northeast Atlantic","volume":"122","author":"Aarnes","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res. Oceans"},{"issue":"9","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0015","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"918","DOI":"10.1002\/2017EF000609","article-title":"Statistical Wave Climate Projections for Coastal Impact Assessments","volume":"5","author":"Camus","year":"2017","journal-title":"Earth's Future"},{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0016","first-page":"97","author":"Tolman","year":"1997"},{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0017","first-page":"110","author":"Tolman","year":"1999"},{"issue":"730","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0018","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1999","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.3803","article-title":"The ERA5 Global Reanalysis","volume":"146","author":"Hersbach","year":"2020","journal-title":"Q. J. R. Metereol. Soc."},{"issue":"12","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0019","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1775","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0485(1988)018&lt;1775:TWMTGO&gt;2.0.CO;2","article-title":"The WAM Model\u2014A Third Generation Ocean Wave Prediction Model","volume":"18","author":"WAMDIG","year":"1988","journal-title":"J. Phys. Oceanogr."},{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"121","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-009-4205-9_15","volume-title":"Oceanology","author":"Komen","year":"1986"},{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0021","first-page":"72","author":"Tolman","year":"1989"},{"issue":"6","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0022","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"782","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0485(1991)021&lt;0782:ATGMFW&gt;2.0.CO;2","article-title":"A Third-Generation Model for Wind Waves on Slowly Varying, Unsteady and Inhomogeneous Depths and Currents","volume":"21","author":"Tolman","year":"1991","journal-title":"J. Phys. Oceanogr."},{"issue":"10","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0023","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1095","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0485(1992)022&lt;1095:EONOTP&gt;2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Effects of Numerics on the Physics in a Third-Generation Wind-Wave Model","volume":"22","author":"Tolman","year":"1992","journal-title":"J. Phys. Oceanogr."},{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0024","first-page":"326","author":"The WAVEWATCH III Development Group (WW3DG)","year":"2016"},{"issue":"10","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0025","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1357","DOI":"10.1175\/2010BAMS2877.1","article-title":"EC-Earth: A Seamless Earth-System Prediction Approach in Action","volume":"91","author":"Hazeleger","year":"2010","journal-title":"Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc"},{"issue":"4","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0026","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"485","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-D-11-00094.1","article-title":"An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design","volume":"93","author":"Taylor","year":"2012","journal-title":"Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0027","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"747","DOI":"10.1038\/nature08823","article-title":"The Next Generation of Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Assessment","volume":"463","author":"Moss","year":"2010","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"11","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0028","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2611","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-011-1228-5","article-title":"EC-Earth V2. 2: Description and Validation of a New Seamless Earth System Prediction Model","volume":"39","author":"Hazeleger","year":"2012","journal-title":"Clim. Dyn."},{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0029","author":"Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)","year":"2017"},{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0030","author":"Hersbach","year":"2016"},{"issue":"2","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0031","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"979","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.6251","article-title":"Climatology and Trends of the Indian Ocean Surface Waves Based on 39-Year Long ERA5 Reanalysis Data","volume":"40","author":"Muhammed Naseef","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol."},{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0032","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"107486","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oceaneng.2020.107486","article-title":"Wind-generated Wave Climate Variability in the Indian Ocean Using ERA-5 Dataset","volume":"209","author":"Sreelakshmi","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ocean Eng."},{"issue":"1","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0033","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"26","DOI":"10.1080\/1755876x.2016.1200249","article-title":"Comparison and Assessment of Three Wave Hindcasts in the North Atlantic Ocean","volume":"9","author":"Campos","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Oper. Oceanogr."},{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0034","first-page":"V003T02A035","article-title":"Comparison Between Two Forecast Systems Implemented With WAM and WaveWatch 3 for the North Atlantic","author":"Bento","year":"2016"},{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0035","first-page":"2506","article-title":"Intercomparison of Wave Reanalysis Based on ERA5 and WW3 Databases","author":"Stefanakos","year":"2019"},{"issue":"4","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0036","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1067","DOI":"10.1016\/j.renene.2018.05.037","article-title":"Wave Energy Distribution Along the Portuguese Continental Coast Based on a Thirty-Three Years Hindcast","volume":"127","author":"Silva","year":"2018","journal-title":"Renewable Energy"},{"key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0037","article-title":"Assessing the Global Wave Energy Potential, 2010","author":"M\u00f8rk"},{"issue":"2","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0038","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"68","DOI":"10.1002\/2013EF000162","article-title":"Future Arctic Climate Changes: Adaptation and Mitigation Time Scales","volume":"2","author":"Overland","year":"2014","journal-title":"Earth's Future"},{"issue":"11","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0039","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3633","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-015-2791-y","article-title":"How Will Climate Change Affect Explosive Cyclones in the Extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere?","volume":"46","author":"Seiler","year":"2016","journal-title":"Clim. Dyn."},{"issue":"6","key":"2021041912040594000_CIT0040","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"L06604","DOI":"10.1029\/2005GL025113","article-title":"Waves and Climate Change in the North-East Atlantic","volume":"33","author":"Wolf","year":"2006","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."}],"container-title":["Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/asmedigitalcollection.asme.org\/offshoremechanics\/article-pdf\/143\/6\/061201\/6685180\/omae_143_6_061201.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"http:\/\/asmedigitalcollection.asme.org\/offshoremechanics\/article-pdf\/143\/6\/061201\/6685180\/omae_143_6_061201.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,20]],"date-time":"2021-04-20T02:40:17Z","timestamp":1618886417000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/asmedigitalcollection.asme.org\/offshoremechanics\/article\/143\/6\/061201\/1105948\/Marine-Climate-Projections-Toward-the-End-of-the"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,19]]},"references-count":40,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1115\/1.4050698","relation":{},"ISSN":["0892-7219","1528-896X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0892-7219","type":"print"},{"value":"1528-896X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,19]]},"article-number":"061201"}}