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To organize these effects beyond a single operating point, a conditional modal phase-spread analysis is introduced to show how wind-driven degradation depends jointly on wind state, propagation range, frequency, and source depth relative to the mixed layer. A physics-coupled particle filter (PC-PF) is then proposed, in which wind speed is treated as a dynamic hidden state and estimated jointly with source range through an embedded reduced-order environmental model. Broadband numerical experiments are used to assess mechanism and tracking performances. For the representative storm-evolution scenario considered here, a conventional static-model broadband Bartlett processor develops kilometer-scale range errors, whereas the proposed PC-PF substantially reduces the root mean square error and preserves track continuity. The formulation is intended as a reduced-order, acoustically informed framework for dynamic environmental adaptation in time-varying conditions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1121\/10.0044226","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,1]],"date-time":"2026-07-01T12:03:22Z","timestamp":1782907402000},"page":"8-21","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1063\/aip-crossmark-policy-page","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Quantifying time-varying wind-driven effects on matched-field localization: Mechanisms and a physics-coupled Bayesian approach"],"prefix":"10.1121","volume":"160","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0000-1315-7865","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xiaoming","family":"Cui","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) 1 , Guangzhou, Guangdong 511458,","place":["China"]},{"name":"School of Ocean Engineering and Technology, Sun Yat-sen University 2 , Zhuhai, Guangdong 519000,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qing","family":"Hu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Ocean Engineering and Technology, Sun Yat-sen University 2 , Zhuhai, Guangdong 519000,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Huayong","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) 1 , Guangzhou, Guangdong 511458,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"231","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,1]]},"reference":[{"issue":"4","key":"2026070107285235100_c1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"401","DOI":"10.1109\/48.262292","article-title":"An overview of matched field methods in ocean acoustics","volume":"18","year":"1993","journal-title":"IEEE J. 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