{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,29]],"date-time":"2026-09-29T22:14:38Z","timestamp":1790720078835,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":66,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"32","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Sci. Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Despite the recent prevalence of severe drought, California faces a broadly underappreciated risk of severe floods. Here, we investigate the physical characteristics of \u201cplausible worst case scenario\u201d extreme storm sequences capable of giving rise to \u201cmegaflood\u201d conditions using a combination of climate model data and high-resolution weather modeling. Using the data from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, we find that climate change has already doubled the likelihood of an event capable of producing catastrophic flooding, but larger future increases are likely due to continued warming. We further find that runoff in the future extreme storm scenario is 200 to 400% greater than historical values in the Sierra Nevada because of increased precipitation rates and decreased snow fraction. These findings have direct implications for flood and emergency management, as well as broader implications for hazard mitigation and climate adaptation activities.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.abq0995","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,12]],"date-time":"2022-08-12T13:58:21Z","timestamp":1660312701000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":124,"title":["Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"8","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2494-9897","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Xingying","family":"Huang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO. USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4276-3092","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Daniel L.","family":"Swain","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA."},{"name":"Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA"},{"name":"The Nature Conservancy of California, Sacramento, CA, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2014GL062433"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2015GL064593"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab83a7"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2020EF001736"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.quascirev.2005.11.012"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3200\/WEWI.60.1.26-30"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/qres.1996.0054"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.quaint.2012.09.006"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"K. 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