{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,18]],"date-time":"2026-09-18T12:17:01Z","timestamp":1789733821862,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":83,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"2","content-domain":{"domain":["www.science.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Sci. Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,13]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Understanding uncertainties in extreme wind-wave events is essential for offshore\/coastal risk and adaptation estimates. Despite this, uncertainties in contemporary extreme wave events have not been assessed, and projections are still limited. Here, we quantify, at global scale, the uncertainties in contemporary extreme wave estimates across an ensemble of widely used global wave reanalyses\/hindcasts supported by observations. We find that contemporary uncertainties in 50-year return period wave heights (\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                        <mml:msubsup>\n                          <mml:mi>H<\/mml:mi>\n                          <mml:mi>s<\/mml:mi>\n                          <mml:mn>50<\/mml:mn>\n                        <\/mml:msubsup>\n                      <\/mml:math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    ) reach (on average) ~2.5\u00a0m in regions adjacent to coastlines and are primarily driven by atmospheric forcing. Furthermore, we show that uncertainties in contemporary\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                        <mml:msubsup>\n                          <mml:mi>H<\/mml:mi>\n                          <mml:mi>s<\/mml:mi>\n                          <mml:mn>50<\/mml:mn>\n                        <\/mml:msubsup>\n                      <\/mml:math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    estimates dominate projected 21st-century changes in\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                        <mml:msubsup>\n                          <mml:mi>H<\/mml:mi>\n                          <mml:mi>s<\/mml:mi>\n                          <mml:mn>50<\/mml:mn>\n                        <\/mml:msubsup>\n                      <\/mml:math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    across ~80% of global ocean and coastlines. When translated into broad-scale coastal risk analysis, these uncertainties are comparable to those from storm surges and projected sea level rise. Thus, uncertainties in contemporary extreme wave events need to be combined with those of projections to fully assess potential impacts.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.ade3170","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,11]],"date-time":"2023-01-11T13:58:52Z","timestamp":1673445532000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":47,"title":["Understanding uncertainties in contemporary and future extreme wave events for broad-scale impact and adaptation planning"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"9","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1618-5500","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Joao","family":"Morim","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Univeristy of Central Florida (UCF), Orlando, FL, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3643-5463","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Thomas","family":"Wahl","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Univeristy of Central Florida (UCF), Orlando, FL, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sean","family":"Vitousek","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Santa Cruz, CA, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1804-5074","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sara","family":"Santamaria-Aguilar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Univeristy of Central Florida (UCF), Orlando, FL, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2233-9227","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Ian","family":"Young","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7725-3474","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Mark","family":"Hemer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ngeo2539"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1510095112"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-018-0088-y"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aap9741"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2016GL071020"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-17-2041-2017"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","unstructured":"DNVGL \u201cOffshore standards DNVGL-OS-C201 - 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Bidlot G.\u00a0Lemos A.\u00a0Semedo 2nd International Workshop on Waves Storm Surges and Coastal Hazards incorporating 16th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting (2019) Melbourne Australia 10 to 15 November 2019."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_82_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.coastaleng.2019.04.013"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_83_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.828"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_84_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.3803"}],"container-title":["Science Advances"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1126\/sciadv.ade3170","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,9]],"date-time":"2024-01-09T16:29:39Z","timestamp":1704817779000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.ade3170"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,13]]},"references-count":83,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,13]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1126\/sciadv.ade3170"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/sciadv.ade3170","relation":{},"ISSN":["2375-2548"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2375-2548","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,13]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2022-08-08","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2022-12-09","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2023-01-11","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"eade3170"}}