{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,8]],"date-time":"2026-05-08T08:10:13Z","timestamp":1778227813204,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":55,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"7","content-domain":{"domain":["www.science.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Sci. Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,16]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The differentiation of dengue virus (DENV) infection, a major cause of acute febrile illness in tropical regions, from other etiologies, may help prioritize laboratory testing and limit the inappropriate use of antibiotics. While traditional clinical prediction models focus on individual patient-level parameters, we hypothesize that for infectious diseases, population-level data sources may improve predictive ability. To create a clinical prediction model that integrates patient-extrinsic data for identifying DENV among febrile patients presenting to a hospital in Thailand, we fit random forest classifiers combining clinical data with climate and population-level epidemiologic data. In cross-validation, compared to a parsimonious model with the top clinical predictors, a model with the addition of climate data, reconstructed susceptibility estimates, force of infection estimates, and a recent case clustering metric significantly improved model performance.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.adj9786","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,16]],"date-time":"2024-02-16T13:59:17Z","timestamp":1708091957000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Integration of population-level data sources into an individual-level clinical prediction model for dengue virus test positivity"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3099-1143","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Robert J.","family":"Williams","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4695-0290","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Ben J.","family":"Brintz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA."},{"name":"Division of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4668-8755","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Gabriel","family":"Ribeiro Dos Santos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9857-3506","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Angkana T.","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK."},{"name":"Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Darunee","family":"Buddhari","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Surachai","family":"Kaewhiran","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6109-5002","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sopon","family":"Iamsirithaworn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4064-6848","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Alan L.","family":"Rothman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Immunology and Informatics and Department of Cell and Molecular Biology, University of Rhode Island, Providence, RI, USA."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8368-7682","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Stephen","family":"Thomas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Microbiology and Immunology, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY, USA."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2115-4493","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Aaron","family":"Farmer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8471-6265","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Stefan","family":"Fernandez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9437-1907","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Derek A. T.","family":"Cummings","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA."},{"name":"Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5725-2351","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Kathryn B.","family":"Anderson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Virology, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand."},{"name":"Department of Microbiology and Immunology, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY, USA."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3626-4254","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Henrik","family":"Salje","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8401-0801","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Daniel T.","family":"Leung","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA."},{"name":"Division of Microbiology and Immunology, Department of Pathology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-020-4834-1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0127962"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0016085"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/516297"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0060634"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002324"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00042560-199812150-00007"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12060"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.d4847"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.bioeng.10.061807.160524"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-157-1-201207030-00450"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.17-0648"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.bjid.2017.08.002"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.72294"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/archpediatrics.2010.250"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamapediatrics.2022.2535"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0050972"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.1987.36.143"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0001378"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.coviro.2020.02.004"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-022-28231-w"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1003308"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-018-3159-9"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0008122"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S095026880999046X"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(22)00436-4"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-016-2024-y"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0006573"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0006258"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-13-77"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/tmi.12325"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0001730"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003138"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/nyas.13084"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2021.0105"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_37_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1603\/0022-2585-37.1.89"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_38_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2022.100452"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2023.e16053"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_40_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4081\/jphia.2022.2145"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_41_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2021.148769"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_42_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/20477724.2022.2135711"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_43_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1590\/1806-9282.63.11.957"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_44_2","first-page":"482324","article-title":"mHealth in Sub-Saharan Africa","volume":"2013","author":"Betjeman T. J.","year":"2013","unstructured":"T. J. Betjeman, S. E. Soghoian, M. P. Foran, mHealth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Int. J. Telemed. Appl. 2013, 482324 (2013).","journal-title":"Int. J. Telemed. Appl."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_45_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/CMR.11.3.480"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_46_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.21-0604"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_47_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2196\/25046"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_48_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0008843"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_49_2","first-page":"240","article-title":"Analysis of significant factors for dengue infection prognosis using the random forest classifier","volume":"6","author":"Fathima A. S.","year":"2015","unstructured":"A. S. Fathima, D. Manimeglai, Analysis of significant factors for dengue infection prognosis using the random forest classifier. Int. J. Adv. Comput. Sci. Appl. 6, 240\u2013245 (2015).","journal-title":"Int. J. Adv. Comput. Sci. Appl."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_50_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fdgth.2022.849641"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_51_2","first-page":"1058","article-title":"Comparative analyses of historical trends in confirmed dengue illnesses detected at public hospitals in Bangkok and Northern Thailand, 2002-2018","volume":"104","author":"Kerdpanich P.","year":"2020","unstructured":"P. Kerdpanich, S. Kongkiatngam, D. Buddhari, S. Simasathien, C. Klungthong, P. Rodpradit, B. Thaisomboonsuk, T. Wongstitwilairoong, T. Hunsawong, K. B. Anderson, S. Fernandez, A. R. Jones, Comparative analyses of historical trends in confirmed dengue illnesses detected at public hospitals in Bangkok and Northern Thailand, 2002-2018. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 104, 1058\u20131066 (2020).","journal-title":"Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_52_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2115790119"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_53_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwaa008"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_54_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiac177"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_55_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fnagi.2017.00329"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_56_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-1331.2010.02955.x"}],"container-title":["Science Advances"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1126\/sciadv.adj9786","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,16]],"date-time":"2024-02-16T14:00:10Z","timestamp":1708092010000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adj9786"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,16]]},"references-count":55,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,16]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1126\/sciadv.adj9786"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/sciadv.adj9786","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2023.08.08.23293840","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["2375-2548"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2375-2548","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,16]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2023-07-26","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-01-17","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-02-16","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"eadj9786"}}