{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,8]],"date-time":"2026-09-08T15:06:22Z","timestamp":1788879982144,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":67,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"30","content-domain":{"domain":["www.science.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Sci. Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,26]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Tropical cyclone rainfall (TCR) extensively affects coastal communities, primarily through inland flooding. The impact of global climate changes on TCR is complex and debatable. This study uses an XGBoost machine learning model with 19-year meteorological data and hourly satellite precipitation observations to predict TCR for individual storms. The model identifies dust optical depth (DOD) as a key predictor that enhances performance evidently. The model also uncovers a nonlinear and boomerang-shape relationship between Saharan dust and TCR, with a TCR peak at 0.06 DOD and a sharp decrease thereafter. This indicates a shift from microphysical enhancement to radiative suppression at high dust concentrations. The model also highlights meaningful correlations between TCR and meteorological factors like sea surface temperature and equivalent potential temperature near storm cores. These findings illustrate the effectiveness of machine learning in predicting TCR and understanding its driving factors and physical mechanisms.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.adn6106","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,24]],"date-time":"2024-07-24T13:59:07Z","timestamp":1721829547000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":19,"title":["Leading role of Saharan dust on tropical cyclone rainfall in the Atlantic Basin"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3612-7583","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Laiyin","family":"Zhu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Environment, Geography, and Sustainability, Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, MI, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6657-8401","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Yuan","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9172-8328","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Dan","family":"Chavas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Max","family":"Johncox","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4263-2562","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Yuk L.","family":"Yung","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate1357"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s43247-022-00639-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1716222114"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-D-18-0194.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac1e3d"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41612-023-00391-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-021-22304-y"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-021-25685-2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR3245.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2009MWR2921.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.8156"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JAMC-D-19-0011.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-018-0676-z"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2021JD034604"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2144"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2018GL079427"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2000JD900024"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2023JD039245"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-85-3-353"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-022-32779-y"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/acp-20-15357-2020"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2020GL090014"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/acp-21-17433-2021"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/acp-23-13835-2023"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2020GL089102"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/WAF-D-18-0201.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/WAF-D-21-0077.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0469(1978)035<0242:ANSOTL>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0469(1986)043<0585:AASITF>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2022GL101963"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/acp-22-8659-2022"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2021.146439"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2023GL103314"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2022GL102186"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2007JD009361"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_37_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00376-017-7091-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_38_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1167404"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-022-29386-2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_40_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/RG002i002p00367"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_41_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-D-13-00254.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_42_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2009MWR2989.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_43_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2117832119"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_44_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(2002)130<2110:TEOVWS>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_45_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2010JAS3318.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_46_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0910818107"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_47_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2003GL017410"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_48_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.101122798"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_49_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-022-31384-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_50_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2023MS003637"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_51_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41612-023-00451-x"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_52_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2019JD030725"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_53_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI4056.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_54_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"G. J. Huffman D. T. Bolvin D. Braithwaite K.-L. Hsu R. J. Joyce C. Kidd E. J. Nelkin S. Sorooshian E. F. Stocker J. Tan D. B. Wolff P. Xie Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission (IMERG) (Cham: Springer International Publishing Cham 2020) pp. 343\u2013353.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-030-24568-9_19"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_55_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2009BAMS2755.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_56_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-022-35113-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_57_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0434(1994)009<0209:ASHIPS>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_58_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/WAF862.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_59_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/WAF1016.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_60_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosres.2018.08.019"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_61_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2007JCLI1824.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_62_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/acp-19-3515-2019"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_63_2","unstructured":"T. Chen C. Guestrin paper presented at the Proceedings of the 22nd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining San Francisco California USA 2016."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_64_2","unstructured":"L. S. Shapley Notes on the N-Person Game &mdash; II: The Value of an N-Person Game (RAND Corporation Santa Monica CA 1951)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_65_2","first-page":"4768","article-title":"A unified approach to interpreting model predictions","volume":"30","author":"Lundberg S.","year":"2017","unstructured":"S. Lundberg, S.-I. Lee, A unified approach to interpreting model predictions. Adv. Neural. Inf. Process. Syst. 30, 4768\u20134777 (2017).","journal-title":"Adv. Neural. Inf. Process. Syst."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_66_2","unstructured":"C. Molnar Interpretable Machine Learning: A Guide for Making Black Box Models Explainable (ed. 2 2022)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_67_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10115-013-0679-x"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_68_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"M. Mayer shapviz: SHAP Visualizations. R package version 0.8.0 (2023); https:\/\/cran.r-project.org\/web\/packages\/shapviz\/index.html.","DOI":"10.32614\/CRAN.package.shapviz"}],"container-title":["Science Advances"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1126\/sciadv.adn6106","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,24]],"date-time":"2024-07-24T13:59:55Z","timestamp":1721829595000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adn6106"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,26]]},"references-count":67,"journal-issue":{"issue":"30","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,26]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1126\/sciadv.adn6106"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/sciadv.adn6106","relation":{},"ISSN":["2375-2548"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2375-2548","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,26]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2023-12-18","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-06-20","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-07-24","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"eadn6106"}}