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An existing modeling approach for estimating the end-of-outbreak probability requires comprehensive contact tracing data describing who infected whom to be available, but such data are often unavailable or incomplete during outbreaks. Here, we develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo\u2013based approach that extends the previous method and does not require contact tracing data. Considering data from two EVD outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we find that data describing who infected whom are not required to resolve uncertainty about when to declare an outbreak over.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.ado7576","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,3]],"date-time":"2024-07-03T13:59:13Z","timestamp":1720015153000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Optimizing the timing of an end-of-outbreak declaration: Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2504-6860","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"William S.","family":"Hart","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0565-923X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jack M.","family":"Buckingham","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Mathematics for Real-World Systems, Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mory","family":"Keita","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"World Health Organization, Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Republic of the Congo."},{"name":"Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Geneva 1202, Switzerland."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Steve","family":"Ahuka-Mundeke","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut National de Recherche Biom\u00e9dicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Philip K.","family":"Maini","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jonathan A.","family":"Polonsky","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Geneva Centre of Humanitarian Studies, University of Geneva, Geneva 1205, Switzerland."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Robin N.","family":"Thompson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","unstructured":"World Health Organization Ebola virus disease (2021); https:\/\/who.int\/news-room\/fact-sheets\/detail\/ebola-virus-disease."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","unstructured":"World Health Organization WHO recommended criteria for declaring the end of the Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak (2020); https:\/\/who.int\/publications\/m\/item\/who-recommended-criteria-for-declaring-the-end-of-the-ebola-virus-disease-outbreak."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2018.0431"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwaa212"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2023.0374"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2201.151383"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2021.06.028"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2019.03.022"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2021.02.106"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"H. 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