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Here, we review evidence supporting this paradigm and quantify the differences in global and Northern Hemisphere estimates of the net land sink derived from atmospheric inversion and satellite-derived vegetation biomass time series. Our analysis, combined with additional synthesis, supports a hypothesis that the net land sink is substantially weaker than commonly reported. At a global scale, our estimate of the net land carbon sink is 0.8\u00a0\u00b1\u00a00.7 petagrams of carbon per year from 2000 through 2019, nearly a factor of two lower than the Global Carbon Project estimate. With concurrent adjustments to ocean (+8%) and fossil fuel (\u22126%) fluxes, we develop a budget that partially reconciles key constraints provided by vegetation carbon, the north-south CO\n            <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n            gradient, and O\n            <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n            trends. We further outline potential modifications to models to improve agreement with a weaker land sink and describe several approaches for testing the hypothesis.\n          <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.adr5489","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,10]],"date-time":"2025-09-10T18:01:02Z","timestamp":1757527262000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":24,"title":["The weak land carbon sink hypothesis"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"11","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6559-7387","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"James T.","family":"Randerson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA."},{"name":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2997-6368","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Yue","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4965-0832","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Weiwei","family":"Fu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Francois","family":"Primeau","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5247-2830","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jinhyuk E.","family":"Kim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9498-7920","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Mingquan","family":"Mu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5802-4134","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Forrest M.","family":"Hoffman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Computational Sciences and Engineering Division and Climate Change Science Institute (CCSI), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7903-9711","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Anna T.","family":"Trugman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6646-0718","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Linqing","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Wilkes Center for Climate Science and Policy, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA."},{"name":"School of Biological Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3233-856X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Chao","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Wilkes Center for Climate Science and Policy, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA."},{"name":"School of Biological Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2839-0699","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jonathan A.","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Wilkes Center for Climate Science and Policy, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA."},{"name":"School of Biological Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6551-3331","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"William R. 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