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For mosquito-transmitted viruses like CHIKV, the potential for severe outbreaks is often assessed using climate-based estimates of the basic reproduction number,\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                        <mml:mrow>\n                          <mml:msub>\n                            <mml:mi>R<\/mml:mi>\n                            <mml:mn>0<\/mml:mn>\n                          <\/mml:msub>\n                        <\/mml:mrow>\n                      <\/mml:math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    \u200a. We derived a large set of\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                        <mml:mrow>\n                          <mml:msub>\n                            <mml:mi>R<\/mml:mi>\n                            <mml:mn>0<\/mml:mn>\n                          <\/mml:msub>\n                        <\/mml:mrow>\n                      <\/mml:math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    estimates for CHIKV by fitting a mechanistic model to data from 86 chikungunya outbreaks. These\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                        <mml:mrow>\n                          <mml:msub>\n                            <mml:mi>R<\/mml:mi>\n                            <mml:mn>0<\/mml:mn>\n                          <\/mml:msub>\n                        <\/mml:mrow>\n                      <\/mml:math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    estimates were weakly predicted by climatic and other factors. Among deterministic drivers of outbreak severity, the contribution of\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                        <mml:mrow>\n                          <mml:msub>\n                            <mml:mi>R<\/mml:mi>\n                            <mml:mn>0<\/mml:mn>\n                          <\/mml:msub>\n                        <\/mml:mrow>\n                      <\/mml:math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    was comparable to that of generation interval length, transmission distance, and population network structure. While aspects of chikungunya outbreak severity are predictable, innovative approaches are needed that look beyond the impacts of climate on\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                        <mml:mrow>\n                          <mml:msub>\n                            <mml:mi>R<\/mml:mi>\n                            <mml:mn>0<\/mml:mn>\n                          <\/mml:msub>\n                        <\/mml:mrow>\n                      <\/mml:math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    .\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.adt5419","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,3]],"date-time":"2025-10-03T17:59:16Z","timestamp":1759514356000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Predictability of infectious disease outbreak severity: Chikungunya as a case study"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"11","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1512-5741","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Alexander D.","family":"Meyer","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9959-247X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sandra Mendoza","family":"Guerrero","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Clinical Strategy, Bavarian Nordic Inc., Durham, NC 27703, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3884-0921","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Natalie E.","family":"Dean","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5725-2351","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Kathryn B.","family":"Anderson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The State University of New York (SUNY) Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9608-563X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Steven T.","family":"Stoddard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Clinical Strategy, Bavarian Nordic Inc., Durham, NC 27703, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7518-4014","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"T. 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