{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,4]],"date-time":"2026-10-04T03:38:30Z","timestamp":1791085110700,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":73,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"13","content-domain":{"domain":["www.science.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Sci. Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,28]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Was the catastrophic flooding in Derna, Libya\u2014one of the deadliest hydrometeorological disasters on record\u2014an inevitable outcome of rare weather conditions, or did the design of the infrastructure fail to account for probable risks? On 10 to 11 September 2023, Storm Daniel, a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone, caused heavy rainfall that led to the collapse of two dams and more than 5000 casualties in Derna. Using a combination of atmospheric reanalysis, satellite data, and hydrologic modeling, we overcame key limitations typical of data-scarce, high-variability regions and revealed that despite the catastrophic impact, the return periods of the rainfall and flood were only a few decades. Hydraulic simulations revealed that the dam failures amplified the damage nearly 20-fold compared to a dam-free scenario. With extensive and timely implications, our findings underscore the importance of uncertainty-aware risk assessment and highlight the value of distributed flood prevention and early warning systems in mitigating risks in vulnerable regions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.adu2865","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,28]],"date-time":"2025-03-28T18:05:49Z","timestamp":1743185149000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":37,"title":["Anatomy of a foreseeable disaster: Lessons from the 2023 dam-breaching flood in Derna, Libya"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"11","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3388-1003","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Moshe","family":"Armon","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Z\u00fcrich 8092, Switzerland."},{"name":"The Fredy and Nadine Herrman Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem 9190401, Israel."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1608-6104","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Yuval","family":"Shmilovitz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, The University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0596-9625","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Elad","family":"Dente","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Environmental Sciences, University of Haifa, Haifa 3103301, Israel."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-004-8891-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.earscirev.2013.07.008"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/scientificamerican0456-39"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.58491\/2735-4202.3157"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","first-page":"90","article-title":"Estimation of the surface runoff depth of Wadi Derna Basin by integrating the geographic information systems and Soil Conservation Service (SCS-CN) model","volume":"21","author":"Ashoor A. A. R.","year":"2022","unstructured":"A. A. R. Ashoor, Estimation of the surface runoff depth of Wadi Derna Basin by integrating the geographic information systems and Soil Conservation Service (SCS-CN) model. J. Pure Appl. Sci. 21, 90\u2013100 (2022).","journal-title":"J. Pure Appl. Sci."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-1694(72)90002-9"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2011JD016004"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"S. E. Nicholson Dryland Climatology (Cambridge Univ. Press 2011).","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511973840"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-1694(01)00498-X"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_2","first-page":"451","article-title":"Fragile Landscape: Impact and consequences of May 2014 flash-flood disaster in the Aqaba area, Southern Jordan","volume":"6","author":"Farhan Y.","year":"2014","unstructured":"Y. Farhan, A. Anbar, Fragile Landscape: Impact and consequences of May 2014 flash-flood disaster in the Aqaba area, Southern Jordan. Res. J. Environ. Earth Sci. 6, 451\u2013465 (2014).","journal-title":"Res. J. Environ. Earth Sci."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2018WR022539"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_2","unstructured":"OCHA Libya: Flood Response Humanitarian Update (as of 20 March 2024) (2024)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"D. Delforge V. Wathelet R. Below C. L. Sofia M. Tonnelier J. A. F. Loenhout N. Speybroeck EM-DAT: the Emergency Events Database. [Preprint (Version 2)] (13 January 2025). available at Research Square https:\/\/doi.org\/10.21203\/rs.3.rs-3807553\/v2.","DOI":"10.21203\/rs.3.rs-3807553\/v2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ssci.2013.01.016"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.3370060304"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2015.08.064"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JHM-D-18-0013.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-21-917-2021"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0012-8252(00)00014-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-26-1243-2022"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-20-2591-2020"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.wace.2023.100638"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jafrearsci.2015.03.022"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_25_2","unstructured":"J. Jandora J. \u0158\u00edha \u201cThe failure of embankment dams due to overtopping\u201d (Brno Univ. of Technology Vutium Press 2008)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_26_2","unstructured":"M. Capasso J. Czerep A. Dess\u00ec G. Sanchez Libya Country Report. EU-LISTCO (2019); https:\/\/eu-listco.net\/libya-country-report\/."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-24-2375-2024"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.3503"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jgrd.50475"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-021-05963-x"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/wcd-4-157-2023"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-D-15-00299.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/rs12172687"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.advwatres.2019.04.002"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1092\/N5VU-FU5F-QNWC-UDCK"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-12-1255-2012"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_37_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloplacha.2015.03.004"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_38_2","first-page":"1","article-title":"Meteorological ingredients of heavy precipitation and subsequent lake filling episodes in the northwestern Sahara","volume":"2024","author":"Rieder J. C.","year":"2024","unstructured":"J. C. Rieder, F. Aemisegger, E. Dente, M. Armon, Meteorological ingredients of heavy precipitation and subsequent lake filling episodes in the northwestern Sahara. EGUsphere 2024, 1\u201347 (2024).","journal-title":"EGUsphere"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0033-0124.1987.00189.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_40_2","unstructured":"U.-H. ROAS Derna damage map (2023); https:\/\/unhabitat-roas.hub.arcgis.com\/maps\/unhabitat-roas::derna-damage-map\/about."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_41_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0169-555X(92)90014-F"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_42_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)BE.1943-5592.0001022"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_43_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"A. Ashoor A. Eladawy Watch and Upgrade or Deconstruct and Relocate: Derna Catastrophe Lessons Amid the Climate-change Era of Unpredictable Flash Floods. [Preprint (version 1)] (2024). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.21203\/rs.3.rs-3858769\/v1.","DOI":"10.21203\/rs.3.rs-3858769\/v1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_44_2","unstructured":"M. Zachariah V. Kotroni L. Kostas C. Barnes J. Kimutai S. Kew I. Pinto N. Bloemendaal W. Yang M. Vahlberg R. Singh L. Thalheimer F. E. L. Otto Interplay of Climate Change-Exacerbated Rainfall Exposure and Vulnerability Led to Widespread Impacts in the Mediterranean Region World Weather Attribution (2023)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_45_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2010WR009798"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_46_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"G. Benito J. A. Ballesteros-C\u00e1novas A. D\u00edez-Herrero \u201cPaleoflood hydrology: reconstructing rare events and extreme flood discharges\u201d in Hydro-Meteorological Hazards Risks and Disasters J. F. Shroder P. Paron G. Di Baldassarre Eds. (Elsevier Boston ed. 2 2023) vol. 5 pp. 33\u201383; www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/B9780128191019000091.","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-12-819101-9.00009-1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_47_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.coesh.2018.06.003"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_48_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/w12102893"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_49_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.advwatres.2008.11.011"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_50_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-12-443-2012"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_51_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.3803"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_52_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"G. J. Huffman D. T. Bolvin D. Braithwaite K. L. Hsu R. J. Joyce C. Kidd E. J. Nelkin S. Sorooshian E. F. Stocker J. Tan D. B. Wolff P. Xie Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission (IMERG) in Advances in Global Change Research (Springer 2020) vol. 67 pp. 343\u2013353.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-030-24568-9_19"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_53_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01431161.2010.499381"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_54_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JTECH-D-19-0114.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_55_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2009WAF2222269.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_56_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.hydroa.2022.100130"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_57_2","unstructured":"D. A. Woolhiser R. E. Smith D. C. Goodrich KINEROS: A kinematic runoff and erosion model: Documentation and user manual U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service (1990)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_58_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.13031\/2013.42264"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_59_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hyp.10167"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_60_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2136\/sssaj2008.0061"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_61_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.13031\/trans.11559"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_62_2","unstructured":"JAXA\/METI ALOS PALSAR L1.0. (2007). ASF DAAC https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5067\/J4JVCFDDPEW1 [accessed 20 September 2023]."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_63_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/336232a0"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_64_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"A. Ashoor A. Eladawy Watch and Upgrade or Deconstruct and Relocate: Derna Catastrophe Lessons Amid the Climate-change Era of Unpredictable Flash Floods. [Preprint (version 1)] (2024). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.21203\/rs.3.rs-3858769\/v1.","DOI":"10.21203\/rs.3.rs-3858769\/v1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_65_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-85639-y"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_66_2","unstructured":"T. A. Neumann A. Brenner D. Hancock J. Robbins A. Gibbons J. Lee K. Harbeck J. Saba S. B. Luthcke T. Rebold ATLAS\/ICESat-2 L2A Global Geolocated Photon Data Version 6. NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center DistributedActive Archive Center (2023); https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5067\/ATLAS\/ATL03.006."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_67_2","unstructured":"C. Gazzini When the Dams in Libya Burst: A Natural or Preventable Disaster? (International Crisis Group 2023)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_68_2","unstructured":"Hydrologic Engineering Center HECRAS 2D Manual US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center (2023)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_69_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s41207-024-00566-4"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_70_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2020GL090209"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_71_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/esp.4530"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_72_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aba3645"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_73_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/qua.2022.40"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_74_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2022.160942"}],"container-title":["Science Advances"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1126\/sciadv.adu2865","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,28]],"date-time":"2025-03-28T18:10:27Z","timestamp":1743185427000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adu2865"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,28]]},"references-count":73,"journal-issue":{"issue":"13","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,28]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1126\/sciadv.adu2865"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/sciadv.adu2865","relation":{},"ISSN":["2375-2548"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2375-2548","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,28]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2024-11-04","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-02-25","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-03-28","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"eadu2865"}}