{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,14]],"date-time":"2026-08-14T16:32:57Z","timestamp":1786725177598,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":80,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"25","funder":[{"name":"Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies"},{"name":"Tasmania Graduate Research Scholarship"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.science.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Sci. Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,19]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Extreme weather events (EWEs) are increasing in both intensity and frequency globally. For long-lived, slow-reproducing marine predators, repeated or sequential EWE-driven breeding failures can have population-level consequences. We quantified effects of EWEs on reproductive output and identified temporal windows of vulnerability during breeding in three sentinel species across 14 colonies with varying population trajectories in Tasmania, Australia. Using long-term breeding datasets and daily weather records, we found that Australian fur seals (\n                    <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus<\/jats:italic>\n                    ), short-tailed shearwaters (\n                    <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">Ardenna tenuirostris<\/jats:italic>\n                    ), and shy albatross (\n                    <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">Thalassarche cauta<\/jats:italic>\n                    ) exhibited species- and colony-specific vulnerabilities. Storm surges reduced pup production in a low-lying fur seal colony, extreme rainfall lowered shearwater breeding success, and albatross productivity declined with exposure to extreme heat, rainfall, and wave events. These results highlight the importance of identifying critical extreme weather thresholds and periods of vulnerability to inform ecological forecasting. Proactive, climate-informed management strategies tailored to specific colonies are needed to enhance the resilience of vulnerable populations under accelerating climate change.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aea3220","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,19]],"date-time":"2026-06-19T18:00:33Z","timestamp":1781892033000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Extreme weather effects on marine predator breeding outcomes in a global climate change hotspot"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5545-2440","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Milan","family":"Sojitra","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8293-0863","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Stuart","family":"Corney","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7725-3474","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Mark","family":"Hemer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CSIRO Environment, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9342-669X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sophie","family":"Bestley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6512-9900","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sheryl","family":"Hamilton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia."},{"name":"Marine Conservation Program, Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sam","family":"Thalamann","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Marine Conservation Program, Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mary-Anne","family":"Lea","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia."},{"name":"Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ddi.12878"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","unstructured":"IPCC in Climate Change 2021\u2014The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change C. 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