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Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Precipitation extremes have increased globally in recent decades, consistent with a warming climate. We find that 2024 experienced a record-high frequency of heavy (\u226599th percentile;\n                    <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">F<\/jats:italic>\n                    <jats:sub>P\u226599<\/jats:sub>\n                    ) precipitation events globally based on MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation) observations from 1979 to 2025. This extends a long-term trend of \u223c0.03%\/decade in\n                    <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">F<\/jats:italic>\n                    <jats:sub>P\u226599<\/jats:sub>\n                    , with similar but more uncertain increases for the 99.9th percentile. Unlike prior high\n                    <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">F<\/jats:italic>\n                    <jats:sub>P\u226599<\/jats:sub>\n                    years, 2024\u2019s record was more globally distributed and emerged from a distinct seasonal evolution. El Ni\u00f1o and rare concurrent multi-basin tropical ocean warmth drove elevated extremes early in the year, before lagged global tropospheric responses and long-term warming sustained and amplified extremes through boreal summer. Climate models indicate that years with 2024-level\n                    <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">F<\/jats:italic>\n                    <jats:sub>P\u226599<\/jats:sub>\n                    typically require either stronger El Ni\u00f1o forcing or concurrent multi-basin sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Diagnostic projections within constrained ensemble members suggest that \u223c40% of the 2024 anomaly aligns with global mean temperatures and\u00a0\u223c20% with El Ni\u00f1o variability, with some of the remainder linked to basin-scale SST structure.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aeb1692","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T18:06:59Z","timestamp":1791569219000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Record-setting heavy precipitation occurrence in 2024"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3757-9015","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Chad W.","family":"Thackeray","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jesse","family":"Norris","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4973-8500","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Alex","family":"Hall","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6570-5445","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Mark D.","family":"Zelinka","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Atmospheric, Earth, and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0390-238X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Stephen","family":"Po-Chedley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Atmospheric, Earth, and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","unstructured":"NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information Monthly Global Climate Report for Annual 2024 (2025); https:\/\/ncei.noaa.gov\/access\/monitoring\/monthly-report\/global\/202413 [accessed 24 June 2025]; https:\/\/ncei.noaa.gov\/access\/metadata\/landing-page\/bin\/iso?id=gov.noaa.ncdc:C00672."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2025GL115614"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","unstructured":"IPCC \u201cClimate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. 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