{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,7]],"date-time":"2026-08-07T14:33:34Z","timestamp":1786113214895,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":49,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"32","funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100009331","name":"Beijing Municipal Administration of Hospitals Clinical Medicine Development of Special Funding Support","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ZYLX202126"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ZYLX202126"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100009331","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Zhejiang Province Traditional Chinese Medicine Science and Technology Project","award":["2023ZL588"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2023ZL588"]}]},{"name":"Hangzhou Biotechnology Pharmaceutical and Health Industry Development Support Science and Technology Special Project","award":["2021WJCY367"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2021WJCY367"]}]},{"name":"Hangzhou Biotechnology Pharmaceutical and Health Industry Development Support Science and Technology Special Project","award":["2022WJC174"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022WJC174"]}]},{"name":"the Barry & Martin Prize"},{"name":"the Hangzhou High-Level Talent Special Support Plan"},{"name":"Hangzhou Municipal Key R&D Program Project","award":["2025SZDIB22"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2025SZDIB22"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.science.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Sci. Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Incomplete immune reconstitution (IIR) is a serious complication affecting 10 to 40% of people living with HIV (PLWH) despite effective antiretroviral therapy, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Current risk prediction models rely on single\u2013time point measurements and lack dynamic assessment capabilities. We developed a dynamic joint prediction system for IIR risk (DJPSIIR) using Bayesian joint modeling to analyze longitudinal data from 21,862 PLWH across 31 Chinese provinces (2003\u20132024). The system integrates continuous CD4\n                    <jats:sup>+<\/jats:sup>\n                    T cell counts and CD4\/CD8 ratios with clinical parameters to generate real-time risk predictions. DJPSIIR demonstrated strong discriminatory performance with area under receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.890 to 0.912 for 5- to 7-year predictions, consistently outperforming expert assessments and 19 machine learning algorithms across multiple validation cohorts. Our dynamic prediction system enables precise identification of high-risk individuals and could transform clinical decision-making by facilitating timely interventions to prevent IIR progression in HIV care.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aeb2781","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,5]],"date-time":"2026-08-05T18:01:42Z","timestamp":1785952902000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Dynamic prediction of HIV-related incomplete immune reconstitution: A multicenter, large cohort study using advanced joint modeling"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5379-8816","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Fang","family":"Liu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Xixi Hospital Biobank and Clinical Data Resource Center, Xixi Hospital of Hangzhou, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China."},{"name":"Department of Laboratory Medicine, Tongren Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2193-9581","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Hanxi","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"WHO Collaborating Center for Comprehensive Management of HIV Treatment and Care, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0008-1406-1572","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Xi","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Infection Center Clinic, Beijing You\u2019an Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jinsong","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Xixi Hospital Biobank and Clinical Data Resource Center, Xixi Hospital of Hangzhou, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9081-120X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jinchuan","family":"Shi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease, Xixi Hospital of Hangzhou, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4711-2910","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Zongxing","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease, Xixi Hospital of Hangzhou, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jianfeng","family":"Bao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Xixi Hospital Biobank and Clinical Data Resource 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