{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,8]],"date-time":"2026-10-08T14:31:03Z","timestamp":1791469863670,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":38,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,16]],"date-time":"2026-01-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1768521600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/page\/science-licenses-journal-article-reuse"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005825","name":"USDA NIFA","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["2021-67023-34492"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2021-67023-34492"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005825","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005825","name":"USDA NIFA","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["Hatch\/Multi State project 7003346"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Hatch\/Multi State project 7003346"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005825","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.science.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Sci. Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,16]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Agriculture, forestry, and other land use contribute about a fifth of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Mitigation efforts have emphasized \u201cdecoupling\u201d that sustains production while lowering emissions per unit of output. However, the underlying decoupling mechanisms have not been fully characterized. We rely on a mathematical identity to decompose agricultural GHG emission growth (\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                        <mml:mrow>\n                          <mml:mi mathvariant=\"normal\">\u0394<\/mml:mi>\n                          <mml:mi>E<\/mml:mi>\n                        <\/mml:mrow>\n                      <\/mml:math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    ) into three parts: output (\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                        <mml:mrow>\n                          <mml:mi mathvariant=\"normal\">\u0394<\/mml:mi>\n                          <mml:mi>Y<\/mml:mi>\n                        <\/mml:mrow>\n                      <\/mml:math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    ), emissions per unit of input (\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                        <mml:mrow>\n                          <mml:mi mathvariant=\"normal\">\u0394<\/mml:mi>\n                          <mml:mi>E<\/mml:mi>\n                          <mml:mo>\/<\/mml:mo>\n                          <mml:mi>X<\/mml:mi>\n                        <\/mml:mrow>\n                      <\/mml:math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    ), and output per unit of input (\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                        <mml:mrow>\n                          <mml:mi mathvariant=\"normal\">\u0394<\/mml:mi>\n                          <mml:mi>Y<\/mml:mi>\n                          <mml:mo>\/<\/mml:mo>\n                          <mml:mi>X<\/mml:mi>\n                        <\/mml:mrow>\n                      <\/mml:math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    ) or total factor productivity (TFP). We then rely on official country-level data to quantify the historical contribution of these components. Over 1961 to 2021, we find that TFP growth\u2014which captures the sector\u2019s ability to produce more output per unit of measured input\u2014has consistently remained one of the main sources of GHG emission reduction within farms. Further decomposition reveals a key role for rising land productivity in reducing emission intensity.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aeb8653","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,16]],"date-time":"2026-01-16T18:59:06Z","timestamp":1768589946000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Unpacking the growth of global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4482-6843","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Ariel","family":"Ortiz-Bobea","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management and Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Simone","family":"Pieralli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Seville, Spain."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-environ-020411-130608"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"G. J. Nabuurs R. Mrabet A. A. Hatab M. Bustamante H. Clark P. Havl\u00edk J. P. Steinfeld \u201cAgriculture Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) \u201d in Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press 2023) pp. 747\u2013860).","DOI":"10.1017\/9781009157926.009"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_4_2","unstructured":"IPCC 2018: Global Warming of 1.5\u00b0C V. Masson-Delmotte P. Zhai H.-O. P\u00f6rtner D. Roberts J. Skea P. R. Shukla A. Pirani W. Moufouma-Okia C. P\u00e9an R. Pidcock S. Connors J. B. R. Matthews Y. Chen X. Zhou M. I. Gomis E. Lonnoy T. Maycock M. Tignor and T. Waterfield Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press 2022)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biosci\/bix010"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.13120"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ldr.3172"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2015.12.004"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2317725121"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_10_2","unstructured":"OECD Environmental Performance of Agriculture in OECD Countries: Key Trends and Insights (OECD Publishing 2025)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_11_2","unstructured":"W. J. Baumol W. E. Oates The Theory of Environmental Policy (Cambridge Univ. Press 2012)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envpol.2007.06.030"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.13340"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0914216107"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ajae\/aas085"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ajae\/aat035"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/aepp.13245"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-resource-101323-094349"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41893-023-01112-w"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab4f57"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-020-03138-y"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abj1572"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_23_2","unstructured":"Y. Hayami V. W. Ruttan Agricultural Development: An International Perspective (Johns Hopkins University Press 1985)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-937X.00226"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_25_2","unstructured":"J. C. Bureau J. Ant\u00f3n \u201cAgricultural total factor productivity and the environment: A guide to emerging best practices in measurement \u201d OECD Food Agriculture and Fisheries Paper Series (OECD Publishing 2022)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_26_2","unstructured":"B. Henderson J. Lankoski \u201cIntegrated approaches for agricultural sustainability and productivity assessments. \u201d OECD Food Agriculture and Fisheries Paper Series (no. 204) (OECD Publishing 2023)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_27_2","unstructured":"F. Ang H. Dakpo \u201cSustainable Intensification in agriculture? A global assessment\u201d (EAAE 2018). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.22004\/AG.ECON.276190."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_28_2","unstructured":"USDA Economic Research Service \u201cTFP indices and components for countries regions countries grouped by income level and the world 1961\u20132021\u201d; www.ers.usda.gov\/data-products\/international-agricultural-productivity. (USDA ERS 2023) [accessed 28 June 2024]."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_29_2","unstructured":"FAOSTAT: Emissions totals (FAO 2024); www.fao.org\/faostat\/en\/#data\/GT [accessed 28 June 2024]."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_30_2","unstructured":"Y. Kaya \u201cImpact of carbon dioxide emission control on GNP growth: Interpretation of proposed scenarios \u201d (IPCC Energy and Industry Subgroup Response Strategies Working Group 1989) p. 76."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0700609104"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"D. 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