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Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Climate models robustly project enhanced warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) by the late 21st century, producing a mean El Ni\u00f1o\u2013like pattern that strongly influences atmospheric circulation and El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation dynamics. Here, we show that the magnitude of this pattern depends primarily on the model\u2019s strength of background Pacific trade winds and the effective climate sensitivity (EffCS), which together explain \u223c74% of the intermodel variance in future EEP warming. Perturbation experiments reveal the underlying mechanism: Stronger trade winds produce larger east-west contrasts in sea surface temperature (SST) and low-cloud cover. Under radiative forcing, this amplifies positive low-cloud and Bjerknes feedbacks, leading to a greater reduction in the east-west SST gradient. These results provide an emergent constraint on future changes in the zonal SST gradient. Specifically, an observation-based easterly wind stress of 0.043\u00a0newtons per square meter and an EffCS of 3.0\u00b0C yields an estimated reduction in the zonal SST gradient of 0.73 under SSP5-8.5.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aec5746","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T17:58:26Z","timestamp":1790791106000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Background trade winds and climate sensitivity control the eastern equatorial Pacific warming pattern"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2611-284X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jacob","family":"Stuivenvolt-Allen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80303, USA."},{"name":"Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06516, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5428-1117","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Alexey V.","family":"Fedorov","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06516, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-24-0102.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI3990.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-19-0690.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-022-01301-z"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2025EF005938"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-022-01282-z"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s43017-023-00427-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2022GL101499"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ngeo2770"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2018GL078887"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2016EF000376"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-19-1011.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aba1981"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2019GL085782"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00376-024-4278-4"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2022JD036675"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0442(1995)008<2181:TMROTT>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2011JCLI4042.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-13-00255.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-021-05818-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ngeo2577"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-25-0226.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2023GL105061"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/2009JCLI3329.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature04744"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-021-01101-x"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0442(1996)009<2190:AODT>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-019-0505-x"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_30_2","first-page":"3047","article-title":"Towards understanding the robust strengthening of ENSO and more frequent extreme El Ni\u00f1o events in CMIP6 global warming simulations","volume":"61","author":"Heede U. 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