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Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,31]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Africa and the Middle East contribute significantly to global fossil fuel production, yet the associated carbon emissions from these extraction and processing activities remain insufficiently reported. The current reporting is not only delayed but also heavily reliant on energy consumption statistics that are difficult to verify. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to indirectly infer and map anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    ) emissions using the coemitted nitrogen oxides (NO\n                    <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">\n                      <jats:sub>x<\/jats:sub>\n                    <\/jats:italic>\n                    ) emissions derived from TROPOMI satellite observations. We find that current global inventories underestimate total CO\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    emissions by about 30% for Africa and the Middle East. About 35% of this underestimation is related to newly identified CO\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    emission sources, which are mainly attributable to oil and gas infrastructure. The analysis reveals that these underestimated emissions could lead to a delay of \u223c5 years in achieving the 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution targets in Africa and the Middle East. This study provides an effective tool for constructing an independent carbon emission accounting framework based on satellite observations and offers a scientific database for guiding climate action.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aee1447","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,31]],"date-time":"2026-07-31T17:58:34Z","timestamp":1785520714000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Satellite observations reveal underestimation of CO\n                    <sub>2<\/sub>\n                    emissions in Africa and the Middle East"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6474-9609","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Xiaojuan","family":"Lin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China."},{"name":"KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt 3730 AE, Netherlands."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0077-5338","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Ronald","family":"van der A","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt 3730 AE, Netherlands."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1078-5334","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jos","family":"de Laat","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt 3730 AE, Netherlands."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1263-2876","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jieying","family":"Ding","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt 3730 AE, Netherlands."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8743-4455","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Henk","family":"Eskes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt 3730 AE, Netherlands."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8968-7050","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Zhu","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","unstructured":"International Energy Agency (IEA) \u201cAfrica energy outlook 2022\u201d (IEA 2022); www.iea.org\/reports\/africa-energy-outlook-2022."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","unstructured":"Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) \u201cAnnual statistical bulletin\u201d (OPEC 2024); https:\/\/publications.opec.org\/asb\/Home."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5194\/essd-17-965-2025"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-019-11097-w"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-020-2035-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","unstructured":"The World Bank \u201cGlobal gas flaring data\u201d (The World Bank 2025); www.worldbank.org\/en\/programs\/gasflaringreduction\/global-flaring-data."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","unstructured":"\u201cGas flaring: What is it and why is it a problem? \u201d BBC 29 September 2022; www.bbc.com\/news\/science-environment-63051458."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","unstructured":"The World Bank \u201cGlobal gas flaring tracker report 2025\u201d (The World Bank 2025): www.worldbank.org\/en\/programs\/gasflaringreduction\/publication\/2025-global-gas-flaring-tracker-report."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","unstructured":"\u201cToxic gas putting millions at risk in Middle East BBC finds \u201d BBC 28 November 2023; www.bbc.com\/news\/science-environment-67522413."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/rs13163078"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_2","unstructured":"Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme Institute for Global Environmental Strategies 2006) pp. 2108\u20132111."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_2","unstructured":"UNFCCC \u201cDecision 18\/CMA.1. 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