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Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The collapse of the Dzungar Khanate in the 1750s marked the end of the world\u2019s last nomadic empire and reshaped Eurasian geopolitics. However, whether environmental and societal factors interplayed and contributed to its collapse remains unclear. Here, we reconstructed steppe productivity variability across the Dzungar heartland since 1625 using 441 tree-ring series based on an extreme growth ratio. Our record shows that the Khanate\u2019s collapse coincided with the lowest steppe productivity in the past four centuries during 1751\u20131761. The weakening societal resilience approaching a tipping point intensified the effects of the rapid steppe productivity decline, which cascaded into famine, conflict, and trade breakdown. Smallpox then reemerged and escalated into a catastrophic epidemic, transforming the environmental crisis into the collapse of the Dzungar Khanate. Our findings underscore the urgent need to strengthen pastoral resilience and epidemic surveillance in steppe regions as climate stress intensifies and cross-border epidemic threats escalate.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aee4285","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,5]],"date-time":"2026-08-05T18:01:42Z","timestamp":1785952902000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Steppe productivity decline contributed to smallpox outbreak and the collapse of the last nomadic empire in the 1750s"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-2872-1985","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Wanru","family":"Tang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Fujian Institute for Cross-Straits Integrated Development, Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Process (Ministry of Education), Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China."},{"name":"Department of Geography, GEOTOP, Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec \u00e0 Montr\u00e9al, Montr\u00e9al, QC H2X 3R9, Canada."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0207-0112","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Keyan","family":"Fang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fujian Institute for Cross-Straits Integrated Development, Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Process (Ministry of Education), Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1522-8919","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Hans W.","family":"Linderholm","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Box 460 S-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2299-5021","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"\u00c9tienne","family":"Boucher","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography, GEOTOP, Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec \u00e0 Montr\u00e9al, Montr\u00e9al, QC H2X 3R9, Canada."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zepeng","family":"Mei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fujian Institute for Cross-Straits Integrated Development, Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Process (Ministry of Education), Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China."},{"name":"Department of Geography, GEOTOP, Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec \u00e0 Montr\u00e9al, Montr\u00e9al, QC H2X 3R9, Canada."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8919-4715","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jinbao","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8951-7417","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Shuheng","family":"Lin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fujian Institute for Cross-Straits Integrated Development, Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Process (Ministry of Education), Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Feifei","family":"Zhou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fujian Institute for Cross-Straits Integrated Development, Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Process (Ministry of Education), Fujian Normal 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Lanzhou 730000, China."},{"name":"Alpine Paleoecology and Human Adaptation Group (ALPHA), State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","unstructured":"J. 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