{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,9]],"date-time":"2026-09-09T18:10:39Z","timestamp":1788977439021,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":76,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"37","funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"NERC Independent Research Fellowship","award":["NE\/W007924\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NE\/W007924\/1"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.science.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Sci. Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    India suffers from severe fine particulate matter (PM\n                    <jats:sub>2.5<\/jats:sub>\n                    ) air pollution in winter that harms public health and disrupts economic activities. Seasonal prediction of pollution severity could facilitate proactive mitigation planning but is hindered by incomplete understanding of the drivers of pollution variations. Here, using over a decade of quality-controlled Indian government PM\n                    <jats:sub>2.5<\/jats:sub>\n                    monitoring data, we find that \u223c70% of the interannual variations in winter PM\n                    <jats:sub>2.5<\/jats:sub>\n                    pollution across northern India are explained by western disturbances (WDs)\u2014prevailing extratropical storms originating from the Mediterranean region\u2014through PM\n                    <jats:sub>2.5<\/jats:sub>\n                    removal via enhanced ventilation and precipitation. These WDs are regulated by the location and strength of the subtropical jet traceable to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the North Atlantic and tropical Indian Ocean during the preceding autumn. Using these preseason SST anomalies, we demonstrate the potential to predict winter WD precipitation and PM\n                    <jats:sub>2.5<\/jats:sub>\n                    pollution severity one season ahead, with good agreement with observations (\n                    <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">r<\/jats:italic>\n                    <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                    \u00a0=\u00a00.52 to 0.69), which could facilitate proactive public policies and stakeholder mitigation actions.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aee4549","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,9]],"date-time":"2026-09-09T17:58:47Z","timestamp":1788976727000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Seasonal predictability of winter PM\n                    <sub>2.5<\/sub>\n                    pollution severity in India through a strong pollution\u2013extratropical storm connection"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5966-0482","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Yuanyu","family":"Xie","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Policy Research on Energy and Environment, School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1480-3755","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Kieran M. R.","family":"Hunt","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK."},{"name":"National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, UK."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rohit","family":"Gupta","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Policy Research on Energy and Environment, School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gargee","family":"Goswami","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Policy Research on Energy and Environment, School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8600-1503","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Mi","family":"Zhou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5662-5435","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Wenhao","family":"Dong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3479-1798","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Denise L.","family":"Mauzerall","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Policy Research on Energy and Environment, School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA."},{"name":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2542-5196(20)30298-9"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/rs12233872"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.adq1071"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosenv.2025.121675"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","unstructured":"Central Pollution Control Board Ministry of Environment Forest and Climate Change Government of India National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) (2019); 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