{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]],"date-time":"2026-09-23T18:59:25Z","timestamp":1790189965238,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":53,"publisher":"American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)","issue":"39","content-domain":{"domain":["www.science.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Sci. Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,25]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Whether seismic slip can far exceed the slip budget of a subduction megathrust over a short time has important implications to earthquake physics and hazards. The first modern test comes from two great Kamchatka earthquakes of moment magnitude 8.8 to 9.0 in 1952 and 2025. Here, we use tide gauge tsunami records across the Pacific to determine whether the two events ruptured the same or complementary fault areas. We extract records of the 1952 tsunami from analog marigrams at 52 tide gauge stations and minimize their time uncertainties by matching hindcast tides. The 1952 tsunami waveforms and travel times are remarkably similar to those of the 2025 event. Tsunami modeling shows that a range of relative rupture locations can produce the waveform similarity, but only nearly colocated ruptures can explain the travel time similarity. On the basis of conventional rationale, the 2025 earthquake consumed more than twice the megathrust slip deficit accrued since 1952. We explain the conundrum by fast energy accumulation in a viscoelastic Earth.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aee5294","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]],"date-time":"2026-09-23T17:59:49Z","timestamp":1790186389000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Pacific tsunami records suggest similar rupture locations of two great Kamchatka earthquakes only 73\u00a0years apart"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0903-0022","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Mat\u00edas","family":"Carvajal","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto de Geograf\u00eda, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica de Valpara\u00edso, Valpara\u00edso, Chile."},{"name":"Instituto Milenio de Oceanograf\u00eda, Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, Concepci\u00f3n, Chile."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7599-7798","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Kelin","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Pacific Geoscience Centre, Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Sidney, British Columbia, Canada."},{"name":"School of Earth and Ocean Science, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alejandra","family":"Gubler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto de Geograf\u00eda, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica de Chile, Santiago, Chile."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9691-045X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Tianhaozhe","family":"Sun","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Pacific Geoscience Centre, Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Sidney, British Columbia, Canada."},{"name":"School of Earth and Ocean Science, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-0075-8516","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"C\u00e9sar","family":"Araya","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto de Geograf\u00eda, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica de Valpara\u00edso, Valpara\u00edso, Chile."},{"name":"Instituto Milenio de Oceanograf\u00eda, Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, Concepci\u00f3n, Chile."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s43017-024-00613-2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2216843119"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-246X.1997.tb05321.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2023TC007890"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0040-1951(75)90102-X"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00880240"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00876211"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","first-page":"L01310","article-title":"Two seismic gaps on the Sagaing Fault, Myanmar","volume":"38","author":"Hurukawa N.","year":"2011","unstructured":"N. Hurukawa, P. Maung Maung, Two seismic gaps on the Sagaing Fault, Myanmar. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L01310 (2011).","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00024-018-1830-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2005JB003648"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_2","unstructured":"S. A. Fedotov \u201cOn the seismic cycle possibilities of quantitative seismic zonation and long-term earthquake prediction \u201d in Seismic Zonation of the USSR (in Russian) (Nauka Moscow 1968) pp. 121\u2013150."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.quascirev.2020.106171"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aeb8232"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_15_2","unstructured":"USGS M8.8 Earthquake \u2013 East of the Kamchatka Peninsula (2025) https:\/\/earthquake.usgs.gov."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/JB080i002p00260"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00024-025-03873-1"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s40623-025-02329-z"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aeb8634"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1785\/0120090376"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s000240050243"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2025GL120682"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2024GL113849"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_24_2","unstructured":"Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission Manual on Sea Level Measurement and Interpretation (UNESCO 1985)."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2025JB031949"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2019JB017522"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/JZ068i018p05207"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2021GL093231"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1785\/0120000006"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s40623-026-02378-y"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1785\/0320250037"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-246X.2005.02579.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"H. 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Office 1953)."}],"container-title":["Science Advances"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1126\/sciadv.aee5294","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]],"date-time":"2026-09-23T18:01:49Z","timestamp":1790186509000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.aee5294"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,25]]},"references-count":53,"journal-issue":{"issue":"39","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,25]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1126\/sciadv.aee5294"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/sciadv.aee5294","relation":{},"ISSN":["2375-2548"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2375-2548","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,25]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-12-05","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-08-25","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-09-23","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"eaee5294"}}