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Adv."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,4]]},"abstract":"\n The Southern Ocean (SO) plays a pivotal role in the global carbon cycle by absorbing anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO\n 2<\/jats:sub>\n ). Yet, it remains uncertain whether this role will persist under future mitigation efforts. Using idealized emission-driven simulations with the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), we find that the SO transitions from net CO\n 2<\/jats:sub>\n sink to a substantial source during zero- and negative-emission phases. This outgassing stems from a persistent regional increase in sea surface temperature and a globally uniform decline in surface alkalinity. Together, these changes maintain elevated oceanic partial pressure of CO\n 2<\/jats:sub>\n (\n \n \n \n \n P<\/mml:mi>\n co<\/mml:mtext>\n <\/mml:mrow>\n 2<\/mml:mn>\n <\/mml:msub>\n <\/mml:math>\n <\/jats:inline-formula>\n ) despite decreasing atmospheric CO\n 2<\/jats:sub>\n , reversing the air-sea\n \n \n \n \n \n P<\/mml:mi>\n co<\/mml:mtext>\n <\/mml:mrow>\n 2<\/mml:mn>\n <\/mml:msub>\n <\/mml:mstyle>\n <\/mml:math>\n <\/jats:inline-formula>\n gradient (\n \n \n \n \n \n d<\/mml:mi>\n P<\/mml:mi>\n co<\/mml:mtext>\n <\/mml:mrow>\n 2<\/mml:mn>\n <\/mml:msub>\n <\/mml:mstyle>\n <\/mml:math>\n <\/jats:inline-formula>\n ). Moreover, the SO exhibits a high climatological gas-transfer coefficient, primarily driven by the region\u2019s strong wind speeds and high CO\n 2<\/jats:sub>\n solubility, which amplifies the\n \n \n \n \n \n d<\/mml:mi>\n P<\/mml:mi>\n co<\/mml:mtext>\n <\/mml:mrow>\n 2<\/mml:mn>\n <\/mml:msub>\n <\/mml:mstyle>\n <\/mml:math>\n <\/jats:inline-formula>\n -driven flux and enhances CO\n 2<\/jats:sub>\n outgassing. These results indicate that the present-day SO CO\n 2<\/jats:sub>\n sink may lose its effectiveness during climate mitigation, emphasizing the need to consider regional feedbacks for long-term climate policy effectiveness.\n <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aee9228","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,2]],"date-time":"2026-09-02T17:59:26Z","timestamp":1788371966000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.34133\/aaas_crossmark","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Enhanced carbon loss in the Southern Ocean under mitigation scenarios"],"prefix":"10.1126","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0000-8753-2701","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Huiji","family":"Lee","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2251-2579","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jong-Seong","family":"Kug","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea."},{"name":"Institute for Sustainable Development, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4381-697X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Yechul","family":"Shin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dong-Geon","family":"Lee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Marine Biogeochemistry Division, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0087-6534","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Nadine","family":"Goris","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NORCE Research AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Friederike","family":"Fr\u00f6b","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4600-2453","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jerry F.","family":"Tjiputra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NORCE Research AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9367-464X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Timoth\u00e9e","family":"Bourgeois","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NORCE Research AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7525-6882","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"J\u00f6rg","family":"Schwinger","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NORCE Research AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"221","reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"R. 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